Barack Obama Tries His Best

Published in Wiener Zeitung
(Austria) on 26 February 2009
by Alexander U. Mathé (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Ron Argentati. Edited by Annie Moulton.
A way of controlling things that’s as old as it is subtle is the self-fulfilling prophecy. A classical example: the media reports on an ailing bank that they say will soon go bankrupt. Result: depositors withdraw their savings in record time before things get worse. Next result: the bank quickly goes bankrupt. The same can also happen with positive results, as when a famous investment guru predicts a certain stock is about to take off. That has the effect of raising the demand for that stock, hence increasing its value. Result: a profitable investment.

Barack Obama seemed to be following this same strategy when he gave his (although it wasn’t so named) State of the Union Speech last Tuesday. The calculated optimism radiated by the president was meant to assure the majority of his fellow citizens that the crisis they faced wasn’t completely hopeless, and that everything was under control. This reassurance was in turn meant to preclude any outbreaks of panic among the public as much as it was to prevent them from hoarding their remaining capital. Obama’s speech also made clear that he intends to find a way out of the crisis through consumer spending. That can happen only if Americans replace their fear with euphoria. Had Obama accentuated the dreary outlook, the United States would perhaps be irretrievably lost.

Obama is doing what he does best: inspiring the public with his encouraging speeches. In so doing, he even allowed for the worsening times that will surely follow. Everything that’s wrong in the United States can be blamed on his predecessor, he said in effect. But – no need for panic – he knows what has to be done: hard work and belt-tightening will get everyone quickly to the promised light at the end of the tunnel.

For now, it seems that Americans are willing to trust his rallying calls, and Obama appears to be on the right path with his optimism. Whether that endures will depend, in the final analysis, on the results of his economic policies. Even the self-fulfilling prophecy of a rising stock can last only as long as its owner can see that it’s still worth keeping. If it loses value it will be dumped, and the market sinks along with it.




Barack Obama tut sein Bestes
Von Alexander U. Mathé
Printausgabe von 26.2.2009

Ein ebenso altes wie raffiniertes Lenkungsmittel ist die self-fulfilling prophecy – eine Prophezeiung, die sich allein schon dadurch erfüllt, dass sie ausgesprochen wird. Ein klassisches Beispiel: Medien berichten über eine angeschlagene Bank, dass diese in Kürze nicht mehr liquid sein werde. Die Folge: Die Anleger beheben dort in Windeseile ihre Einlagen, bevor nichts mehr geht. Die Folge: Die Bank ist tatsächlich innerhalb kürzester Zeit illiquid.
Dasselbe funktioniert natürlich auch im Positiven, etwa, wenn ein anerkannter Investment-Guru den Anstieg einer bestimmten Aktie ankündigt, mit dem Effekt, dass die Nachfrage nach dem Wertpapier steigt und schließlich ein Kursgewinn resultiert.

Eine ähnliche Strategie verfolgte wohl auch Barack Obama bei seiner ersten (wenn auch nicht so genannten) Rede zur Lage der Nation. Denn der Zweckoptimismus, den der US-Präsident dabei versprüht hat, sollte den Großteil seiner Landsleute glauben lassen, dass die Krise halb so wild und alles unter Kontrolle wäre. Durch diese Beschwichtigung wiederum sollen Panikhandlungen der Amerikaner ebenso vermieden werden wie das Horten ihres verbliebenen Geldes. Denn Obama hat ebenfalls in seiner Rede gezeigt, dass er sich über den Konsum den Weg aus der Krise bahnen will. Das kann dann klappen, wenn die Amerikaner über ihre Euphorie ihre Furcht vergessen. Würde Obama die trüben Aussichten betonen, die USA wären vielleicht wirklich rettungslos verloren.

Barack Obama macht somit das, was er am besten kann: Mit anspornenden Reden sein Publikum begeistern. Dabei hat er sogar die schlechteren Zeiten einkalkuliert, die zweifelsfrei noch kommen werden. Alles was schlecht sei in den USA, sei die Schuld seines Vorgängers, erklärt Obama sinngemäß. Doch – kein Grund zur Panik – er wisse, was zu tun sei: Hart arbeiten, Gürtel enger schnallen, dann erreiche man geschwind das versprochene Licht am Ende des Tunnels.

Vorerst, so scheint es, vertrauen die Amerikaner den Durchhalteparolen ihres Präsidenten und Obama ist mit seinem Optimismus auf dem guten Weg. Ob das auch so bleibt, wird aber letztlich von den realen Ergebnissen seiner Wirtschaftspolitik abhängen. Denn auch bei der self-fullfilling prophecy der steigenden Aktie kann diese ihren Wert a la longue nur dann behaupten, wenn ihre Käufer sehen, dass sie auch wirklich was taugt. Sonst wird sie schnell abgestoßen und tritt eine Talfahrt an.

This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

Hot this week

Sri Lanka: Qatar under Attack: Is US Still a Reliable Ally?

Singapore: The Assassination of Charlie Kirk Leaves America at a Turning Point

Thailand: Brazil and the US: Same Crime, Different Fate

Germany: We Should Take Advantage of Trump’s Vacuum*

Germany: Trump Declares War on Cities

Topics

Spain: Charlie Kirk and the Awful People Celebrating His Death

Germany: Trump Declares War on Cities

Japan: US Signing of Japan Tariffs: Reject Self-Righteousness and Fulfill Agreement

Russia: Trump the Multipolarist*

Turkey: Blood and Fury: Killing of Charlie Kirk, Escalating US Political Violence

Thailand: Brazil and the US: Same Crime, Different Fate

Singapore: The Assassination of Charlie Kirk Leaves America at a Turning Point

Germany: When Push Comes to Shove, Europe Stands Alone*

Related Articles

Austria: Trump’s Solo Dream Is Over

Austria: The Harvard President’s Voluntary Pay Cut Is a Strong Signal

Austria: Maybe Trump’s Tariff Bludgeon Was Good for Something after All

Austria: Trump’s Film Tariffs Hurt Hollywood

Austria: Donald Trump Revives the Liberals in Canada

  1. if economic success was as simple as borrowing and printing money and then stimulate the economy to its former greatness every country in the world would find that an easy solution.

    it of course is not that easy. america is in decline and the american people have been in denial of that decline for over 3 decades.

    so they borrow and print money to pay for their wars for profits and their lifestyle based on borrowed money not the wealth of their nation.

    as an american that has been able to put patroitism and nationalism aside it is sad to watch your country decline.

    but what did we do with our wealth but spend it on a mega industrial military complex due to fear and greed.

    americans believe the have a god given right to be a super power and they will spend trillions they dont have keeping that paradigm in place.

    as long as the chinese loan us money and we can print money we can maintain this fallacy that we are still a super power.

    super power status is an national ego thing.

    besides we can pay the chinese back with a devalued dollar. a good deal for both china and america. for a while but all good things come to an end.