Why Is U.S. Health Care Reform So Difficult?

Published in Sohu
(China) on 10 September 2009
by Li Ling (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Afra Tucker. Edited by Katy Burtner.
Many reforms in China have used the U.S. as a model. China must therefore seriously review the problems the U.S. is experiencing in the health care sector in order to take preventative measures against the occurrence of a crisis here at home.

The U.S. is now engaged in a huge debate concerning health care reform. When President Obama came to office, he petitioned the nation on the subject of new health care reform policies and, in these recent months, all of the U.S. media has given its full focus on health care reform discussions.

China’s reforms, whether socio-economic or cultural, large or small, have all been modeled after the U.S. Many state officials and scholars say we must mention the experiences undergone by the U.S. However, it seems that health care is an exception to this trend. When it comes to health care, the lesson we can learn from the U.S. goes beyond mere experience. In fact, China’s new health care reform process comes out ahead of the U.S.

The problems that have arisen in the U.S. health care system are borne of many social and economic factors. Even though many reforms in China use the U.S. as a model, given recent problems, perhaps we must consider in advance how to avoid future problems.
 
Why does the U.S. need health care reform?

In the U.S., doctor shortages and medical expenses are equally problematic.

First of all, the U.S. health care system is among the most expensive in the world. Health care costs take up 17 percent of the country’s GDP. Every year, costs exceed two trillion dollars, far exceeding costs reached by all of the world’s other countries. However it is the only developed country that has not managed to insure all of its population. There are currently 50 million people in the U.S. who have no health insurance (these are mostly people aged 65 and under who do not meet the criteria for coverage for the poor and are not covered by company health insurance). These individuals are still facing unsatisfactory medical service quality. Costs are simply not commensurable with results. There are three major problems plaguing the medical system: little coverage, inefficiency and high overhead costs.

Secondly, the high costs make health care unaffordable even for those insured by companies, as well as for the elderly and the poor. Although they have insurance, individuals must also pay premiums. The study of health care economics has long shown that after obtaining health insurance, health service costs rise. To meet rising costs, insurance companies either increase premiums or cut down on coverage. In short, increasing personal coverage causes people to carry a greater cost burden. The U.S. media calls this a “spiraling” rise in health care costs. Obama has used his mother (who died of cancer) as an example: many patients have coverage, but in the final stages of their lives they constantly have to worry about insurance companies using any small pretense to refuse coverage. Furthermore, they must worry about not being able to afford many of their medical treatments.

Low efficiency principally occurs at the level of doctors and treatment facilities. Currently, doctors in the U.S. spend the bulk of their time and energy dealing with health insurers, treatment authorization and lawsuits. The drawbacks of the current medical reimbursement system and worries over facing lawsuits have encouraged doctors to carry out unnecessary check-ups, diagnoses and treatments.

Even more seriously, the U.S. health care burden has become a barrier to the stability and continued development of the country’s economy. Health care is now the greatest financial expense that the U.S. wishes to tackle. Expenses are higher than education and defense. Elderly health care insurance and poor health care insurance constitute the biggest burden on U.S. finances. All previous sessions of government have dealt with this headache. Most insurers are employers who are legally required to provide insurance to employees. This has also become a heavy burden on U.S. businesses, and it is even thought to be the number one source of damage to American business competitiveness.

Before the recent economic crisis, Ford, GM, and others large American businesses had difficulty going forward due to the burden of health care. Obama appealed to the nation: if the U.S. health care system still did not undergo reform, it would pull down the whole nation. He set health care reform as an objective: it would be the new foundation of the future of continued economic development in the U.S. Thus, we can see the high level of strategic importance that the Obama administration has placed on health care reform.

How to reform U.S. health care.

To build a universal healthcare system is a dream for the U.S., in particular that of the Democratic Party. Many economists and health experts have also devoted their efforts to promoting this. Obama’s presidency and the grave economic crisis that he faced appeared to give the U.S. a good opportunity for reform.

When Obama advocated his health care plan, its objectives were mostly the same as those of China, and two were identical: large-scale coverage and low costs. The ultimate goal was to give all Americans the chance to afford health insurance.

Vast coverage and low overhead means not only extending the number of people who will be covered, but also extending coverage. At the same time, better information technology can help control the upwardly spiraling costs of the U.S. health care system.

Obama has pointed out that health care reform means building a new health care system, one that provides a good environment for doctor specialization and has the lowest costs possible for the best possible health care for all Americans. This kind of system can take the pressure off of businesses, release new vitality into the economy, create new jobs, increase salaries, and bring up to ten billion dollars worth of extra growth in the economy, making both the health care system and the economy stronger.

Presently, the reform bill drafted by the Obama administration comprises several aspects. For instance, the government must strictly supervise insurance companies’ modus operandi, not allowing insurance companies to “skim the cream off the top.” The original meaning of this term is to “skim the cream off cow’s milk.” However, in this case, it means that insurance companies tend to sell policies to healthy people, or those who are young or have an elevated income. This creates difficult conditions for elderly, sick and low-income people. Obama’s health care reform plan intends to prohibit this kind of strategy. Insurance companies must accept all applicants and cannot demand higher fees from applicants who have a history of illness or a medical condition. Moreover, the bill also proposes to put a stop to the policy of reducing coverage and insurance companies will have to get their lowest benefits package approved by the federal government.

Also, the federal government must provide an allowance to help non-wealthy individuals buy insurance and give low-income individuals the same insurance as poor people.

In order to lessen the cost burden of health insurance for the elderly, Obama has proposed a necessary reform of payment methods, which will replace the customary method of covering costs according to service items and quantities with one calculated according to value.

Why doesn’t the U.S. create a public hospital system?

With regards to Chinese health care reform, I would like to emphasize the following: achieving universal health care can only solve half the current problems. The real long-term challenge is to manage health care costs by means of an appropriate service system. Thus, public hospitals must become the principal force behind the health service system. This is a real necessity, as well as a historical choice. So people may ask: why don’t Americans build public hospitals?

Indeed some have suggested it, such as last year’s Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman. Back in 2006, Paul Krugman and Robin Wells co-authored the article “The Health Care Crisis and What to Do About It,” published in the New York Review of Books. They believe that because private insurance companies and private hospitals are principal health care providers, it is costs rather than value that have increased, leading to a lack of efficiency in the U.S. health care system. How it is possible that a system developed on market principles is considered inefficient? The writers first compare the U.S. with Canada and France, explaining that public health insurance is more effective than its private counterpart. Also, these countries manage costs more effectively. The writers then analyzed health insurance for U.S. veterans, showing that the government’s direct provision of health care more effectively manages costs.

Judging from the logic and evidence of this analysis, the conclusion is already clear – cutting up the system is not as good as keeping it together, private health insurance is not as good as government provided insurance, and a government insurance system is not as good as a public hospital system.

Were this kind of view to arise in China, I reckon it would be classified as lacking the common sense of economic study and economic planning. However, Krugman is a Nobel Prize-winning economist, afterall, so one cannot say that it lacks the common sense of an economist. Economics is a discipline of study from the real world, and we must use the facts of experience to speak about things. We must remain flexible; we cannot just study hypotheses and ideas from a book and use them as a standard.

However, the question still lingers: why has the U.S. not evolved a public hospital system? Krugman has brought up two important reasons. One is because the government faces several interest groups, particularly insurers, pharmaceutical companies and members of doctors’ associations. The other reason is because the U..S is influenced by free market ideology. An analysis shows that these two reasons are the source of the chronic problems facing U.S. health reform.

In addition to this, the U.S. has never encountered the opportunity to build public hospitals. Historically speaking, the first nations to build public hospitals, such as the USSR, England, and other countries, were in the process of reform or emerging from war. There were many things that needed to be rebuilt, and public hospitals reshaped the function of government in recreating the image of the country and the spirit of the people. The U.S. has never experienced this kind of destruction of war, and consequently has never experience such urgent demand.

Why does the U.S. dread government?

Although the push for U.S. health care reform appears to have excellent timing, the real drive forward is currently facing several huge difficulties. Controversy still surrounds the issue, and from June up until today, Obama has attempted on many occasions to drum up support and discussion on his new health care bill. According to a New York Times analysis, the focal point of the controversy is concentrated into two aspects. One is the enormous question of how much money must be spent on health care reform. The second is in order to construct a government-run health care plan to cover those who presently have no insurance, will the U.S. “free market” system of values have to change?

The U.S. Congressional Budget Office early on estimated this health reform plan would require one billion U.S. dollars. Before long this was rattling the nerves of tax payers still reeling from the economic crisis. It was met with substantial obstacles, since business owners would have to pay more insurance fees or incur tax increases. Afterwards, the plan underwent some adjustment and was pared down to 20 million dollars. However, the Republican Party and American Medical Association still wouldn’t buy into it.

On the surface, the controversy stems from the economic viability of this plan. “Vast coverage, low costs.” To use an old Chinese proverb, it’s like “getting the horse to run yet not eat grass,” so inevitably people are skeptical. However, Krugman maintains confidence in Obama: “Either you don’t do it at all or you achieve two things at once.” The biggest difference is Obama’s plan for universal coverage and proposing to create a government-run health care insurance plan. This has stirred up U.S. citizens bent on defending free market system ideology, along with special interest groups, particularly those related to insurance companies. These are the obstacles in the way of the health care bill.

What role do special interest groups play?

More than ideology is the threat of special interest groups. Every social group has their own reasonable interest, so not all can be called special interest groups. So-called special interest groups represent a small portion of the population, but have a large impact on government policy. They capitalize on influential government policies and make supreme efforts to defend policies that produce benefits for themselves, yet which violate society.

Which special interest groups oppose health care reform? Let’s take a look: which special interest groups would be hurt by health care reform? If the U.S. achieves low-cost, high-coverage care, who would feel the heat?

One such entity is commercial insurance companies, as they depend on “skimming off the cream” in order make profits. They only sell insurance to those people whose incomes are high and are in good health. Achieving universal health care is bound to throw these companies calculation practices askew.

Secondly, pharmaceutical companies. Controlling costs inevitably requires making more use of cheaper, more effective and appropriate pharmaceuticals and technology. This means that the medical product industry will be subject to reduced profits.

Third, medical associations. U.S. doctors differ from China’s modestly remunerated medical professionals. In the U.S., doctors belong to a very honorable profession, and medical associations worry that health reform will hurt doctors’ interests.

A comprehensive survey of U.S. history shows that the rejection of health insurance planning has been spearheaded by commercial insurance, resulting in an malevolent pharmaceutical industry and doctors’ associations. Through agents from Congress and the government, interest groups will force the next health care reform bubble to burst.

When Truman was in office, he gave a speech to Congress four times about building a universal health care system. He appealed to the U.S. to provide health care where “everyone must shoulder the burden.” This solicited the passionate protest by U.S. doctor groups. They asserted that Truman’s plan was thoroughly “socialist.” In December of 1948, the Journal of the American Medical Association published a strongly worded editorial stating “Compulsory sickness insurance ... is a variety of socialized medicine or state medicine and possesses the evils inherent in any politically controlled system. It is contrary to American tradition and is the first and most dangerous step in the direction of complete state socialism. The American Medical Association rejects any such scheme as a method of the distribution of medical care.” Floating on the tide of politics, Truman’s reform plans came up short. The American Health Association has consistently succeeded in preventing the creation of a universal health care system.

When Lyndon Johnson took office, he dedicated himself to improving the livelihood of the people, and the American people called him “the health care and education president.” However, he still did not prevail over the American Medical Association and interest groups from small and medium-sized enterprises in order to create an universal health care system for the entire nation. He settled for compromise and created health insurance for the elderly and the poor. This kind of severed system was not encouraging to Americans. Many youths looked down on sick people; one was forced to wait until 65 to obtain coverage. Studies have shown that this led to minor complaints transforming into major illnesses.

During the beginning of the ‘90s, close to 40 million U.S. residents under the age of 65 had no medical insurance. The cost of health care shot up, and in 1992 it accounted for more than 14 percent of the U.S. GDP. On average, costs greatly exceeded those of other developed countries and were twice that of West Germany and three times that of England.

In 1993, Bill Clinton came to office. One of his important bargaining chips was his electoral promise to provide significant coverage to all Americans. In February of 1993, Clinton issued his first official presidential address: the government planned to invest 175 billion dollars within four years. 37 million uninsured people would be provided with health insurance, and competition would be introduced into the area of health care management in order to strengthen cost control. Still, reform was subject to Republican Party interest group opposition right from the start. Once Hillary Clinton took control of health care reform, President Clinton’s administration received accusations from insurance company groups. They employed even weightier attack methods, accusing the government’s universal coverage plan of leading to greater fiscal pressure. This is precisely the same criticism that Obama is receiving today.

In September 1993, Clinton officially addressed Congress, bringing up the need to control health care costs. However, doctors and insurance company owners and employers were all unwilling to foot the bill for the plan. After the plan was laid out in a short number of months, the American Medical Association, insurance companies, small business alliances and other agencies spent several billions of dollars on publicity attacks against Hillary Clinton’s “big government and high taxes,” which thoroughly “violated the ethics of the American middle class.” By the summer of 1994, the Republican Party attacks and special interest group rumblings reaching a boiling point, inducing huge concern on the part of the electorate regarding the possibility of additional taxes brought on by health care reform. Thus, Hillary’s toils were irrevocably lost.

History unceasingly repeats itself, and presently Obama is facing the same kinds of difficulties. The economic crisis initially seemed to provide some momentum to U.S. health reform. However, the underlying ideology must be accepted by all and an agreement between the Obama administration and special interest groups is still a long way off. U.S. health care economics expert Harvard David Culter has expressed his concern: if Obama is the same as his predecessors, he will have no choice but to reach a compromise, and the universal health coverage dream will come to a halt.

The factors that currently obstruct the promotion of U.S. health care reform are the same that can hurt China’s health reform industry. After reading up on the controversy about China’s health care reform, I often think that the many fine words that are expressed are the same as those being issued from the U.S. Congress and special interest groups. Are we really able to learn a lesson from observing the American people? This is still a very difficult test for us to pass.

The author is a professor at the China Center for Economic Research, Peking University.


美国医改为什么也这么难?

我国很多改革都“以美为师”,美国医疗领域所出现的问题,也是我们必须提前进行思考,防患于未然的。

美国正在进行一场关于医疗体制改革的大辩论。总统奥巴马上任以来,一直在为其医改新政奔走呼号,关于医改的报道和讨论近几个月来充斥着美国各大媒体的版面。

  中国的很多改革,无论是经济、社会还是文化领域的改革,都或多或少跟在美国后面。很多官员和学者,都言必称美国经验。然而,似乎只有医疗是个反例。美国的医疗体制给我们提供的教训多于经验,我国新医改的进程反而走在了美国前面。

  美国医疗体制存在的问题,是其社会经济诸多方面的因素综合导致的。既然我国很多改革都“以美为师”,那么美国医疗领域所出现的问题,也许也是我们必须提前进行思考,防患于未然的。

  美国为什么要医改?

  美国的“看病难、看病贵”问题也同样突出:

  首先,美国的医疗体制是世界上最贵的一个,美国的卫生总费用占其GDP的比重为17%,每年的医疗花费已经高达2万亿美元,远远高于世界其他国家,但是美国也是发达国家中唯一一个没有实现全民医疗保障的国家。美国目前还有5000万人口没有医疗保险(主要是65岁以下的既不符合穷人医疗报销标准,也没有雇主提供商业医疗保险的人),依然面对着满意程度较低的医疗服务质量,和与高昂花费不相称的医疗绩效,也即医疗系统的低覆盖、低效率和高成本这三大问题。

  其次,美国的昂贵的医疗费用使得有商业保险或者享有老年医疗保险和穷人医疗保险的患者也承担不起,因为即使有保险,个人也还要支付一定的比例。卫生经济学早已证明,有了保险之后,会推高医疗费用。随着医疗费用的上升,保险公司要么增加保费,要么削减保险覆盖内容,增加自费项目,总之,会使患者负担更重。美国的媒体称之为医疗费用的螺旋式上升。奥巴马以他母亲为例说,很多患者即使有保险,但在生命的最后时期,整天担心保险公司会以各种理由拒付,更担心很多医疗项目报销不了而支付不起。

  低效率问题主要体现于医生和医疗机构层面。当前,美国的医生花费了大量的时间和精力用于应付医疗保险、医疗授权和医疗诉讼的事务。而现行医保偿付体制的缺陷和因为对可能面对的诉讼的担心,则倾向于让医生有激励进行许多不必要的检查和诊疗。

  更为严峻的是,美国的医疗负担已经成为美国经济稳定持续发展的掣肘。医疗是目前美国政府财政支出中最大的项目,高于教育和国防的支出,老年医疗保险和穷人医疗保险已经成为美国财政最大的包袱,历届政府都为此头疼。美国的医疗保险主要是雇主依法为雇员支付的,而这也成为美国企业的沉重负担,并被认为是损害美国企业竞争力的元凶之一。

  在此次金融危机之前,福特、通用汽车等美国大企业就已经因为医疗保险负担而难以为继。奥巴马呼吁说,美国的医疗体制再不改革,将拖垮整个美国。因此他将医疗改革的目标定位为:为美国未来的持续发展建立全新的基础。由此可见奥巴马政府对于医改的重视程度和医改在美国的战略高度。

  美国医改要改什么?

  建立全民医疗保障体系,是美国人的一个梦,尤其是美国民主党近一个世纪以来的梦想,也是美国很多经济学家和卫生学家所致力推动的。奥巴马的上台以及当前所面临的严峻的经济危机,似乎给了美国一个极好的改革机会。

  于是,奥巴马推出了他的医改方案,其宏伟目标和中国一样,同样是两个——

  “广覆盖”和“低成本”,最终目的是为美国全民提供“可以负担得起”的医疗保险。

  广覆盖和低成本意味着,不仅要扩大保险所覆盖的人群,而且要扩大保险所覆盖的医疗项目,同时,还要通过信息化等手段控制美国整体医疗系统螺旋式上升的成本。

  奥巴马指出,改革将要建立一个全新的医疗系统,为医生提供良好的专业环境,并以最低的成本为所有美国人提供最好的医疗服务。这样的系统能够减轻企业压力,释放经济活力,创造就业岗位,增加实际工资,并在每年为美国经济带来多达数百亿美元的额外增长,让医疗系统和整体经济更为强健。

  目前,奥巴马政府拟定的医改的具体内容包括几个方面。比如,政府应该严格管制商业保险公司的行为,不允许保险公司“撇奶油”——这个词的原意是把牛奶里的奶油撇走,指保险公司总是倾向于把保险卖给健康、年轻和高收入人群,而给年老体弱和低收入人群设置苛刻的条件。奥巴马的医改方案要对这种状况下刀,要求保险公司必须接受所有申请者,而且不能根据申请者的疾病史和疾病状况收取更高的保费,而且,保险方案还提出,要防止保险公司缩小报销的项目,保险公司必须提供联邦政府所确定的“最低受益包”。

  而联邦政府应该提供补贴以帮助收入并不高的人购买保险,而对于低收入者,应该有穷人医疗保险的适合人群。

  为了压缩老人医疗保险的巨额费用负担,奥巴马提出应该改革支付方式,以按价值付费方式代替传统的按服务项目和服务数量付费方式。

美国为什么不办公立医院体制?

  在讨论中国医改的时候,我一再强调:仅仅实现全民医保只能解决一半问题,通过合适的医疗服务体系控制医疗成本,才是长期更具挑战的任务,因而公立医院必须成为医疗服务体系的主力。

这是现实的需要,也是历史的选择。那么,也许有人要问:为什么美国不办公立医院体制呢?
  确实有这样的建议,是去年的诺贝尔经济学奖得主克鲁格曼提出的。早在2006年,保罗·克鲁格曼和和罗宾·威尔斯就在《纽约书评》上发表了题为《医疗危机及其对策》的文章,认为由于美国保险是主要是由私人公司提供,医疗服务也主要由私人医院提供,这增加了成本但是没有增加价值,导致美国的医疗体系缺乏效率。为什么一个将市场的作用发挥得最淋漓尽致的体系,反而被认为没有效率呢?作者首先拿美国和加拿大、法国进行比较,说明公共医疗保险比私人医疗保险更有效,而统一的支付方更容易控制医疗费用。作者接着拿美国国内的退伍军人的医疗保障方式进行分析,说明政府直接提供医疗服务更能有效的控制医疗费用。

  从分析的逻辑和证据来看,结论已经非常明确了——分割的体系不如统一的体系,私人医疗保险不如政府医疗保险,政府医疗保险体制不如公立医院体制。

  这种说法如果在中国,估计会被扣上“缺乏经济学常识”和“计划经济”的帽子。但是,克鲁格曼毕竟是经济学诺奖得主,总不好说人家没有经济学常识了吧。经济学是一门研究现实世界的学问,要以经验事实来说事,要灵活应用,不能把书本上

  学到的一些假设和概念当成圭臬。

  但是,美国为什么没有演化出公立医院体系呢?克鲁格曼提到的两个重要原因,一是因为政府面临很多利益集团,尤其是保险、制药公司和医师协会的左右;二是因为美国受自由市场意识形态的影响。下文将分析到,事实上,这两个原因是美国医改长期以来举步维艰的源头。

  除此之外,美国一直没有建立公立医院的机会。从历史上看,首先建立公立医院的苏联、英国等国家,是在革命或者世界大战之后,百废待兴的基础上建立起来的,公立医院具有相当的重塑国家形象和人民精神的政治职能。美国没有经历过这样的战争破坏,也没有这样的紧迫需求。

  美国为什么恐惧政府?

  虽然美国的医改似乎找准了一个极好的时机,但是,真正的推进还困难重重,争论还在继续,从6月至今,奥巴马已经在很多场合为其医改新政游说和辩论。而据《纽约时报》的分析,争论的焦点集中在两个:一是这个庞大的医改计划要花多少钱;二是建立一个政府运行的医疗保险项目以覆盖目前所有没有保险的人群,会不会改变美国的“自由市场”价值观。

  美国国会预算办公室最早估计这次医改计划要耗资1万亿美元,这不免触动着经济危机中广大纳税人的神经,引起了极大的阻力。因为这意味着雇主将支付更多的保费或者税收的增加。后来计划进行调整,瘦身到2000亿美元,但是,共和党和美国医疗协会的反对者们依然不买账。

  表面上看,争论的是关于这个计划的经济可行性。“广覆盖、低成本”,以中国的古话,就是又要马儿跑,又要马儿不吃草,难免让人捏一把汗。但是,还是克鲁格曼,却对奥巴马充满信心,“要么就不做,要么就会两样同时成功”。更大的分歧在于奥巴马的全民医保,将通过建立一个政府运行的医疗保险项目的方式推行,因为这触动了美国“自由市场”的价值理念,也触动了特殊的利益集团,尤其是保险业的利益。而这些将是美国医改推动致命的阻力,而且这也不是当前才有的阻力,我们且来回顾一下美国医改的艰难历程。

  一个最发达的国家花费了最贵的医疗费用却是唯一一个没有实现全民医疗保障的发达国家,每每与来自美国的专家一起开会,他们总是引此为耻。2006年,我国政府组织制订医改总体方案,大幅度增加投入、提高医保覆盖面,我把这样的消息告诉美国的卫生经济学家时,他们通常会瞪圆眼睛,用一种赞叹而羡慕的口气说,“哎呀,美国做不了这样的事情啊!”

  是美国政府不想做么?非也。从1930年代开始,多少届美国总统都信誓旦旦要实现全民医保,可是至今为止,结果无不是血淋淋的失败。

  是美国人民不想要么?非也。否则绝对无法解释从罗斯福、杜鲁门,肯尼迪,到克林顿、希拉里、奥巴马,都把医疗保障作为竞选演讲中的亮点。

  那么,究竟是什么强大的力量,阻止了美国医疗保障制度的建设进程呢?一是意识形态,二是特殊利益集团。

  美国虽然是被认为世界上最自由开放的国家,但是美国也是一个价值取向非常明确的国度。出于特定的政治和文化原因,美国对“社会主义”有着神经质一般的恐惧,这从两个历史细节可见一斑。

  远在1935年1月17日,罗斯福总统首次在国会提出了实行由政府筹资的全民健康保险,会场上出现了经典的一幕,一个来自美国医疗协会的议员举着《共产党宣言》站起身来喊道:“主席先生,这些内容都是从《共产党宣言》第18页抄过来的,我有原稿。”另一个例子是,1993年克林顿一上台,便大刀阔斧地推行全民健保计划。感到自身既得利益岌岌可危的美国医生协会,雇佣了包括前总统里根在内的一批演员,在全国巡回表演,他们拿着苏联的镰刀斧头旗,播放着斯大林检阅苏军的录像,告诉美国老百姓:如果让政府掌握医疗,美国就会从“自由世界”变成这个样子!

  当然,美国并非没有明白的人,克鲁格曼就是一个。他在专栏中说道,“没有任何政府管制就能成功的医疗市场,在过去从未有过,在将来也永远不会有。”而那些整日鼓吹全民医疗就是“计划经济”、“社会主义”的新自由主义原教旨主义者,恰恰是不懂得医疗体制的基本常识的,他们信奉的是,凡是国家要管的,就是邪恶的。今日美国糟糕的医疗体系,正是在这种思潮推波助澜下不断强化的。

  美国当前的医改计划,仍然面对这样的挑战,还是要面对“把政府之手拿开”的呵斥,然而克鲁格曼指出了他们的“无知”,如果没有政府之手,那么他们连现在的医疗保障都不会有,因为即使美国还没有开始新改革,但雇主支付的商业医疗保险是政府强制才得以保证的,更何况老年医疗保险、穷人医疗保险是政府举办的。

  这样的“无知”,同样在中国存在。例如,在我国医改的争论中,在2006年之前,“市场主导论”者的观点,是筹资和服务提供都不需要政府干预,既不要“全民医保”,更不要“全民医疗”了;而2006年,当国家明确政府主导之后,“市场主导论”者居然一方面支持“全民医保”,另一方面继续高喊市场化方向,殊不知,做“全民医保”,就一定是政府主导的,否则怎么做得成?

利益集团扮演了什么角色?

  比意识形态的作用更加巨大、更加现实的,是特殊利益集团。

每个社会群体都可以有自己的正当利益,这不叫做“特殊利益集团”,所谓“特殊利益集团”,是指占人口比例极小、但是对政策的影响力远远大于其占人口规模的集团,利用其政策影响力,极力维护有利于自己而有违于社会福利的政策。
  哪些利益集团反对医改呢?那就要看看,医改损害了哪些集团的利益。美国医改要实现“低成本、广覆盖”,受到损害的利益集团主要有三个:

  一是商业保险公司,因为商业保险是靠“撇奶油”来盈利的,只把那些收入高、身体健康的人挑出来卖保险,这样就损害了医疗保险本身应该有的分散风险和调节收入分配的功能,实现“全民医保”势必挤压商业保险公司的如意算盘;

  二是药品企业,要控制成本,必然将更多地使用便宜而有效的适宜药品、适宜技术,这样医药企业的盈利空间将会大大缩小;

  三是医生协会,与我国对医生的劳务报酬过低不同,在美国,医生是最体面的职业,医生协会也担心医改会损害医生的利益。

  纵观美国的历史,医疗保障计划的流产,无不是商业保险、药品企业和医师协会作祟的结果。它们出于维护既得利益,组成强大的院外游说集团,通过国会和政府里的代理人,使得一次次的医改努力化为泡影。

  杜鲁门任职期间,四次向国会发表关于建立全民医疗体系的演讲,号召为美国提供“人人都能负担”的医疗,这激起了美国医生群体的激烈反抗,他们宣称,杜鲁门的计划是彻底的“社会主义化”,美国医疗协会在1948年12月的《美国医学协会杂志》发表措辞强硬的社论:“全民健康保险……体现了一切政治控制的罪恶,违背了美国的传统,是走向全面国家社会主义的危险信号。美国医学协会坚决拒绝这样的计划。”在泛政治化的浪潮下,杜鲁门的改革计划最终不了了之。美国医疗协会却底气越来越足,一次次阻挡建立全民医疗保险体系。

  约翰逊任期内,致力于改善民生,被美国人称为“卫生和教育总统”,但他依然没有战胜美国医疗协会和中小企业主的利益团体,建成全国统一的医疗保障体系。而只是建立了一个折中的老年和穷人医疗保险。这种分割的体系,对美国人造成了很不好的激励,许多在年轻时看不起病的人,只好等到65岁之后再去享受医保,有研究表明这会导致“小病拖成大病”。

  90年代初期,美国依然有近4000万在65岁以下的居民没有任何形式的医疗保险,而美国的全国卫生费用则以几何速度上涨,1992年即占全美GDP的14%之多,个人平均医疗费用大大超出其他发达国家,甚至达到原西德的2倍、英国的3倍。

  1993年,克林顿成功上台的重要筹码之一,便在于其在竞选中向全美选民所承诺的,为所有美国人提供真正意义的健康保险。1993年2月17日,克林顿在上任伊始发表国情咨文,计划在四年内由政府投入1750亿美元,为美国当时尚没有任何医疗保险的3700万人提供政府医疗保险,并向医疗领域引入“有管理的竞争”,加强对成本的控制。然而,改革依然从开始之初,就受到共和党和利益集团的强烈反对。希拉里一上任主管医改,克林顿政府便遭到来自保险业组织的指控。而他们更有分量的攻击方式,则是指责政府全民医疗保险将导致的巨大财政压力——与今天对于奥巴马医改的批评如出一辙。1993年9月22日,克林顿正式向国会发表演讲,提出控制医疗成本。不论是医生、保险业主还是雇主,都极不情愿为这样的计划买单。改革计划出台之后短短数月,美国医疗协会、保险公司和小企业主联盟等机构花费了数亿美元进行宣传,攻击希拉里的“大政府、高税收”是彻底“违背了美国中产阶级的道德观”。到了1994年夏季,共和党的攻击和利益集团的嘈杂达到白热化,并大大催生了选民对医疗改革可能带来的税收负担的担忧,让克林顿和希拉里的努力不得不付之东流。

  历史是不断重复的,当下奥巴马同样面临着诸多前任们类似的难题。经济危机的出现,似乎为美国医改提供了更多的动力。不过,要真正在意识形态上被大家接受,与特殊利益集团达成妥协,奥巴马政府还有很长的路要走。美国著名的卫生经济学家、哈佛大学DavidCulter教授就表示了他很大的担忧。如果奥巴马和他的前任们一样,不得不做出巨大的妥协,那美国的全民医疗保障的梦还只能继续。

  阻挠美国医改推进的那些因素,同样有可能破坏我们的医改事业。读一读在我国医改中的争论,常常会感觉到,许多说辞和美国国会那些利益集团的掮客们多么地一致。殷鉴未远,能否真正吸取美国人的教训,对我们还是艰巨的考验!(作者为北京大学中国经济研究中心教授)
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