The New Nuclear Doctrine

Published in El País
(Spain) on 8 April 2010
by Staff (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Veronica Pascarel. Edited by Stefanie Carignan.
Obama is redefining the limits of the use of atomic arms that were established during the Bush era.

United States President Barack Obama continues to take steps toward tackling the next revision of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), with the actual possibility of success. On the eve of his trip to Prague to sign the new disarmament agreement with Russia, the U.S. president has publicly redefined the North American nuclear doctrine.

In the United States, the Republicans have accused Obama of going too far with the limits on the usage of the atomic bomb, while the pacifists have accused him of coming up short. These are unjustifiable criticisms, which seem to ignore the fact that, first of all, Obama hasn’t done anything but adapt the ability to respond to real threats, and secondly, that a realist initiative for disarmament can only be approached in a consensual manner, not in a unilateral one.

Along general lines, the new U.S. strategy proposes to consolidate the distinction between the usage of conventional forces and nuclear escalation, blurred by President Bush in contemplating the possibility of a nuclear response to attacks of another nature, such as chemical or biological. While Bush was in power, the current revision of the doctrine didn't increase dissuasion, but encouraged proliferation while instruments such as the NPT deteriorated despite being considered essential in setting boundaries and then in reducing the risk that was ignored after the Cold War. Iran’s nuclear program has brought the issue back to the forefront.

Even these carefully planned and accurately executed initiatives cannot guarantee the success of the revision of the NPT given that, in the international confine, the actors are independent. This makes it difficult to persuade each of the players to find a common ground, especially when the regimes of countries such as North Korea and Iran are involved. However, the only guaranteed outcome without these initiatives is failure, which would open the doors for a nuclear race with unpredictable consequences. The United States is doing the work that corresponds to it without decreasing its capacity for deterrence, or eventually for a gradual response on the conventional as well as the strategic confine.

Now all that remains is for the others to follow, particularly powers such as India, Pakistan and Israel, that have not signed the NPT to commit them to dispose of nuclear arms. Above all, countries such as Iran, aspiring to a level of nuclearization that is suspected to go beyond civilian use, should be persuaded in signing the NPT.


El presidente de Estados Unidos, Barack Obama, sigue dando pasos para abordar la próxima revisión del Tratado de No Proliferación (TNP) con alguna posibilidad de éxito. En vísperas de viajar a Praga para firmar el nuevo acuerdo de desarme con Rusia, ha hecho pública la redefinición de la doctrina nuclear norteamericana.

Dentro de Estados Unidos, los republicanos le han acusado de haber ido demasiado lejos en las limitaciones para el uso del arma atómica y los pacifistas de haberse quedado corto. Son críticas injustificadas, que en el primer caso parecen ignorar que Obama no ha hecho otra cosa que adecuar la capacidad de respuesta a las amenazas reales y, en el segundo, que una iniciativa realista de desarme sólo se puede abordar de manera consensuada, no de forma unilateral.

En líneas generales, la nueva estrategia de EE UU se propone consolidar la frontera entre el uso de fuerzas convencionales y la escalada nuclear, difuminada por el presidente Bush al contemplar la posibilidad de una respuesta atómica a ataques de otra naturaleza, como los químicos y los biológicos. Mientras ha estado vigente, la doctrina ahora revisada no ha aumentado la disuasión, sino la proliferación, al mismo tiempo que ha deteriorado los instrumentos que, como el TNP, siguen siendo imprescindibles para acotar primero, y reducir después, un riesgo que se ignoró tras la guerra fría y que el programa nuclear iraní ha vuelto a situar en el primer plano.

Ni siquiera estas iniciativas cuidadosamente diseñadas y ejecutadas con precisión pueden garantizar el éxito de la revisión del TNP, puesto que, en el ámbito internacional, los actores son independientes y no resulta fácil inducir todas y cada una de sus respuestas, sobre todo cuando se trata de regímenes como el de Corea del Norte o Irán. Pero sin estas iniciativas lo único garantizado era el fracaso, abriendo las puertas a una carrera nuclear de imprevisibles consecuencias. Estados Unidos está haciendo el trabajo que le corresponde sin disminuir su capacidad de disuasión ni, eventualmente, de respuesta graduada, tanto en el ámbito convencional como en el estratégico.

Ahora falta que también lo hagan los demás. En concreto, potencias como India, Pakistán e Israel, que no han firmado el TNP pese a disponer de armas atómicas; y, sobre todo, aspirantes a una nuclearización que, se sospecha, podría ir más allá de los usos civiles, como Irán.
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