The Kabul Conference has set 2014 as a milestone for the Afghan government to assume full economic and military responsibilities of the Central Asian country. This progressive shift is conditioned by events which do not represent a wavering commitment, but were necessary to quell the growing impatience – in the United States and particularly among its European allies – with a long war in which the results do not offset the weight of NATO efforts, and in which NATO's ability to fight in certain settings remains in question.
The actual scope of the meeting in Kabul is weak, beyond being a platform for the articulation of desires and anxieties of those present. The final statement is, above all, a list of good intentions, full of expectations, projects and promises, many of which have already been handled before — opportunistically and without visible effects — by Hamid Karzai. Perhaps one of the few concrete decisions is to, in two years, give the Afghan president (who was fraudulently re-elected last year, discredited among his own and is demonstrably corrupt) the capacity to funnel 50 percent of the massive development aid the country receives. Washington and its allies, with widely varying conviction, have cautiously supported the peaceful efforts of Karzai to reconcile with Taliban converts. As of now, the idea stands on shaky ground, due to the fact that Islamic fundamentalists reject any compromise as long as foreign troops are involved.
As it was before the conference and before the replacement of McChrystal by Petraeus as the commander of U.S. troops in Afghanistan, the two fundamental questions regarding Afghanistan remain whether NATO can win the war and how that can be done. The United States’ own secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, has expressed concerns about the image projected by a conflict involving 150,000 troops, and in which every month is more deadly than the last. The ambitious objectives set by Barack Obama seem ever more distant, despite the growing U.S. military commitment. Most Afghans believe that the U.S., which maintains next summer as the beginning of its gradual withdrawal, is losing the momentum in a war that, after nine years, is already the nation’s longest international engagement.
La conferencia de Kabul ha fijado 2014 como mojón para que el Gobierno afgano asuma por completo las responsabilidades militares y económicas del país centroasiático. Un traspaso progresivo, condicionado por los acontecimientos y que no representa un compromiso inamovible, pero que resultaba imprescindible fijar para calmar la creciente impaciencia -en Estados Unidos y, sobre todo, entre sus aliados europeos- con una larga guerra en la que el esfuerzo no se ve compensado por los resultados y que está poniendo a prueba la capacidad de la OTAN para luchar en determinados escenarios.
El alcance real de la reunión de Kabul es escaso, más allá de su condición de altavoz de los deseos y las ansiedades de los reunidos. El comunicado final es, sobre todo, un catálogo de buenas intenciones -lleno de expectativas, proyectos y promesas- muchas de las cuales ya han sido manejadas antes con oportunismo y sin efectos visibles por Hamid Karzai. Quizá una de las pocas decisiones concretas sea la de otorgar al presidente afgano -reelegido fraudulentamente el año pasado, deslegitimado entre los suyos y probadamente corrupto- la capacidad de canalizar en dos años hasta el 50% de la masiva ayuda al desarrollo que recibe su país. Washington y sus aliados, con convicción muy dispar, apoyan cautelosamente el empeño pacificador de Karzai de reconciliarse con los talibanes conversos. Una idea cimentada por el momento sobre la arena, por cuanto los fundamentalistas islámicos rechazan cualquier compromiso mientras haya soldados extranjeros de por medio.
Como antes de la conferencia y como antes del relevo de McChrystal por Petraeus al frente de las tropas estadounidenses, las dos preguntas fundamentales sobre Afganistán siguen siendo si puede ganarse la guerra y cómo. La propia secretaria de Estado Clinton ha mostrado su inquietud por el cariz de un conflicto que implica a 150.000 soldados y que cada mes resulta más mortífero que el anterior. Los ambiciosos objetivos enunciados por Barack Obama parecen cada vez más lejanos, pese al creciente compromiso militar de Washington. La mayoría de los afganos cree que EE UU, que mantiene el verano próximo como comienzo de su paulatina retirada, va perdiendo el empuje en una guerra que, tras nueve años, es ya la más duradera de sus expediciones internacionales.
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The madness lies in asserting something ... contrary to all evidence and intelligence. The method is doing it again and again, relentlessly, at full volume ... This is how Trump became president twice.
It wouldn’t have cost Trump anything to show a clear intent to deter in a strategically crucial moment; it wouldn’t even have undermined his efforts in Ukraine.
It wouldn’t have cost Trump anything to show a clear intent to deter in a strategically crucial moment; it wouldn’t even have undermined his efforts in Ukraine.