We Should Publicly Undermine US Threats of War Against Iran
Published in Sina
(China) on 10 January 2012
by (link to original)
The United States’ Pentagon has recently been unable to set aside for Iran the red lines of developing nuclear weapons and blockading the Strait of Hormuz, saying that otherwise America will respond. The United States has naturally regarded the threat of war as the final key to bringing Iran under control.
The gambling den of an Iran war has a difficult dealer — namely China. Iran has China’s great oil interests, and Iran is still an important check on power to alleviate Chinese strategic pressure. But China cannot form an alliance with Iran and be an enemy of the United States. China must take some action in preventing an Iran war, while not bringing about a deadly blow to China-U.S. relations.
Due to the important task of maintaining the principles of diplomatic value and other interests, hiding is not an option for China. Some people believe Russia’s interests in Iran are even greater than China’s and that Moscow should continue to block America from spearheading an attack starting the war. But this is quite possibly wishful thinking. No matter whether you look at it from the demand for oil from Iran or the geopolitical advantages and disadvantages, the importance of Iran to China is gradually overtaking Russia’s strategic value to China. We rely on Moscow for sheltering our interests from the wind and rain, but this is selfish and unrealistic.
China should, on the Iran issue, make an assumption corresponding with our interests, adhering to the clear principle of right and wrong. Regarding Moscow, our goals should be to not allow it to sneak away at the critical moment, to maintain strategic cooperation between China and Russia, to not haggle over whose position is more exposed and to firmly support each other.
China has already made clear its opposition to the attitude of further sanctioning Iran. No matter how great American and European pressure is, China should not pay any heed to them and naturally insist on normal trade with Iran. China already has some individual companies, who because of a fear of American sanctions, have lessened their investment and business in Iran. But this should not be China’s approach. To the contrary, if the legitimate trade of Chinese companies in Iran suffer American sanctions, China should counter that.
Before there is conclusive evidence showing Iran is developing nuclear weapons, China should still help Iran diplomatically, helping Iran avoid being convicted in advance by international public opinion. Beijing and Tehran must maintain high-level visits and make public the American and European resistance to coming up with alternatives for Iran.
The United States is not yet ready to launch a war with Iran; the American economy would have an especially difficult time supporting a new war. And this year is yet another American election year; a new war will raise obstacles for Obama’s dream of a second term. All this implies that fighting Iran will be one of the most difficult war decisions for the United States since the beginning of the new century. China’s role is to increase the practical difficulties and spiritual reservations of America starting a war — this may not necessarily be ineffective in preventing a war.
We should not habitually believe that publicizing the undercutting of the Western position on pressuring Iran will lead to China-U.S. hostility. China must have the courage and the ability to push the United States back on its tolerance for withholding cooperation toward China. China-U.S. relations can’t, over the long term, take yielding to American interests as the price for China’s interests.
Iran is a fitting stopover for China taking this kind of a step. Because, first of all, the United States’ threat of war against Iran does not have United Nations authorization and is illegal. Second, China’s interests in Iran are threatened and it is morally justified for China to protect its own interests. What China is opposed to isn’t the United States, it is only opposed to war. This is China’s utmost obligation to the world as a great nation and is an opportunity for China to show its power and conviction. If America forces a show-down with China over this, then it isn’t advantageous for the United States to take action against Iran and it will not attain a moral advantage.
We must see that in fighting an Iranian war, America’s risk is at least much greater than China’s. We at least do not need to be more anxious than Washington. When Chinese diplomacy requires even more action, stirring up a jockeying for power in the Gulf is not only an opportunity to practice our wisdom, but also an opportunity to train our nerve. In fact, even if we don’t do it well enough, we still won’t lose anything.
As long as China has strength, opposing China will not be an interesting and fun thing. We should not be intimidated by the hard-line voices of the American advocates against China, just as some of our threats don’t intimidate the United States.
The gambling den of an Iran war has a difficult dealer — namely China. Iran has China’s great oil interests, and Iran is still an important check on power to alleviate Chinese strategic pressure. But China cannot form an alliance with Iran and be an enemy of the United States. China must take some action in preventing an Iran war, while not bringing about a deadly blow to China-U.S. relations.
Due to the important task of maintaining the principles of diplomatic value and other interests, hiding is not an option for China. Some people believe Russia’s interests in Iran are even greater than China’s and that Moscow should continue to block America from spearheading an attack starting the war. But this is quite possibly wishful thinking. No matter whether you look at it from the demand for oil from Iran or the geopolitical advantages and disadvantages, the importance of Iran to China is gradually overtaking Russia’s strategic value to China. We rely on Moscow for sheltering our interests from the wind and rain, but this is selfish and unrealistic.
China should, on the Iran issue, make an assumption corresponding with our interests, adhering to the clear principle of right and wrong. Regarding Moscow, our goals should be to not allow it to sneak away at the critical moment, to maintain strategic cooperation between China and Russia, to not haggle over whose position is more exposed and to firmly support each other.
China has already made clear its opposition to the attitude of further sanctioning Iran. No matter how great American and European pressure is, China should not pay any heed to them and naturally insist on normal trade with Iran. China already has some individual companies, who because of a fear of American sanctions, have lessened their investment and business in Iran. But this should not be China’s approach. To the contrary, if the legitimate trade of Chinese companies in Iran suffer American sanctions, China should counter that.
Before there is conclusive evidence showing Iran is developing nuclear weapons, China should still help Iran diplomatically, helping Iran avoid being convicted in advance by international public opinion. Beijing and Tehran must maintain high-level visits and make public the American and European resistance to coming up with alternatives for Iran.
The United States is not yet ready to launch a war with Iran; the American economy would have an especially difficult time supporting a new war. And this year is yet another American election year; a new war will raise obstacles for Obama’s dream of a second term. All this implies that fighting Iran will be one of the most difficult war decisions for the United States since the beginning of the new century. China’s role is to increase the practical difficulties and spiritual reservations of America starting a war — this may not necessarily be ineffective in preventing a war.
We should not habitually believe that publicizing the undercutting of the Western position on pressuring Iran will lead to China-U.S. hostility. China must have the courage and the ability to push the United States back on its tolerance for withholding cooperation toward China. China-U.S. relations can’t, over the long term, take yielding to American interests as the price for China’s interests.
Iran is a fitting stopover for China taking this kind of a step. Because, first of all, the United States’ threat of war against Iran does not have United Nations authorization and is illegal. Second, China’s interests in Iran are threatened and it is morally justified for China to protect its own interests. What China is opposed to isn’t the United States, it is only opposed to war. This is China’s utmost obligation to the world as a great nation and is an opportunity for China to show its power and conviction. If America forces a show-down with China over this, then it isn’t advantageous for the United States to take action against Iran and it will not attain a moral advantage.
We must see that in fighting an Iranian war, America’s risk is at least much greater than China’s. We at least do not need to be more anxious than Washington. When Chinese diplomacy requires even more action, stirring up a jockeying for power in the Gulf is not only an opportunity to practice our wisdom, but also an opportunity to train our nerve. In fact, even if we don’t do it well enough, we still won’t lose anything.
As long as China has strength, opposing China will not be an interesting and fun thing. We should not be intimidated by the hard-line voices of the American advocates against China, just as some of our threats don’t intimidate the United States.