Edited by Gillian Palmer
Obama Will Try Not to Sign the Current “Magnistky Law”
The “Magnitsky’s list” law could become global. Political scientist and employee at the Institute of the World Economy and International Relations Irina Kobrinskaya discussed the situation with the interviewer Andrei Norkin.
Do you agree with the opinion that the attempt to make the “Magnitsky Law” international is in reality no more than an attempt to soften the anti-Russian characteristic of this bill?
There are several possible interpretations. The first one is that this project bears a pre-election character and shows that on the eve of elections, the U.S. tries to demonstrate its seriousness in following and supporting human rights. Now this situation obviously has a pre-election accent; that is why we have to take inter-political concepts into consideration.
It is hard to say how the administration would react, but if the law is expanded — that is, if it doesn’t only apply to Russia — it may be easier for Barack Obama to sign that kind of law. Obama would try not to sign the law the way it looks now, despite the fact that both houses of Congress passed the law.
And if we talk about it in terms of anti-Russian or Russian, it becomes derogatory; except for China, which faces certain restrictions related to criticism that it lacks a democratic regime, Magnitsky’s list includes developing and weak countries. If Russia is on that list, it is not positive for us. We are not placed in very nice company. But in any case, then it would not be “Magnitsky’s list” but something else. It would not be “Kardin’s list,” it would be some other new law.
The law would use that story as a new reason for that kind of global decision.
Yes. That is why, you know, I think we now can relax a little before the law is signed, follow the discussion and observe towards which side we need to turn, since he can turn toward any side.
And what do you think — what other countries would accept a law, in any form, that places sanctions on Russian officials?
Do you mean, except the U.S.?
Except the U.S. and Great Britain.
You know, I do not clearly see it.
From whom can we expect that?
I do not really see a reason to expect such steps from other countries. It could happen if relations between Russia and some other government would worsen. In that case, that country could accept the law. Let’s imagine the wildest situation, which would be if we had some issues with Estonia and Latvia. It might be the case that in that situation, these countries would accept the law, but Russia would respond. The Russian response would be asymmetrical compared to the sanctions, but taking into consideration the amount of private funding at Russia’s disposal, Russia will show them.
In any case, even if there is anything to expect, it would be from the new countries of European followers?
You know, I just gave that virtual example, but I think that the law would be on the level of the U.S.’ passionate support for human rights. And the rest is the full stop: There would be some restrictions, which I think would be technological, concerning China for example. But in reality, those sanctions would be pointing towards Russia — hidden sanctions. This version is unofficial but still worrying. These worries would exist if we did not improve our relations, solve the missile defense problem, etc. And on human rights, even though Putin said that we need to act on the principle of “the fool,” which is wrong, we still cannot say that everything is perfect in terms of human rights; instead, we have more and more reasons to say that everything is less than ideal.
Do you agree with the opinion that the attempt to make the “Magnitsky Law” international is in reality no more than an attempt to soften the anti-Russian characteristic of this bill?
There are several possible interpretations. The first one is that this project bears a pre-election character and shows that on the eve of elections, the U.S. tries to demonstrate its seriousness in following and supporting human rights. Now this situation obviously has a pre-election accent; that is why we have to take inter-political concepts into consideration.
It is hard to say how the administration would react, but if the law is expanded — that is, if it doesn’t only apply to Russia — it may be easier for Barack Obama to sign that kind of law. Obama would try not to sign the law the way it looks now, despite the fact that both houses of Congress passed the law.
And if we talk about it in terms of anti-Russian or Russian, it becomes derogatory; except for China, which faces certain restrictions related to criticism that it lacks a democratic regime, Magnitsky’s list includes developing and weak countries. If Russia is on that list, it is not positive for us. We are not placed in very nice company. But in any case, then it would not be “Magnitsky’s list” but something else. It would not be “Kardin’s list,” it would be some other new law.
The law would use that story as a new reason for that kind of global decision.
Yes. That is why, you know, I think we now can relax a little before the law is signed, follow the discussion and observe towards which side we need to turn, since he can turn toward any side.
And what do you think — what other countries would accept a law, in any form, that places sanctions on Russian officials?
Do you mean, except the U.S.?
Except the U.S. and Great Britain.
You know, I do not clearly see it.
From whom can we expect that?
I do not really see a reason to expect such steps from other countries. It could happen if relations between Russia and some other government would worsen. In that case, that country could accept the law. Let’s imagine the wildest situation, which would be if we had some issues with Estonia and Latvia. It might be the case that in that situation, these countries would accept the law, but Russia would respond. The Russian response would be asymmetrical compared to the sanctions, but taking into consideration the amount of private funding at Russia’s disposal, Russia will show them.
In any case, even if there is anything to expect, it would be from the new countries of European followers?
You know, I just gave that virtual example, but I think that the law would be on the level of the U.S.’ passionate support for human rights. And the rest is the full stop: There would be some restrictions, which I think would be technological, concerning China for example. But in reality, those sanctions would be pointing towards Russia — hidden sanctions. This version is unofficial but still worrying. These worries would exist if we did not improve our relations, solve the missile defense problem, etc. And on human rights, even though Putin said that we need to act on the principle of “the fool,” which is wrong, we still cannot say that everything is perfect in terms of human rights; instead, we have more and more reasons to say that everything is less than ideal.