Hasten the Close of Japan-US Talks and Conclude TPP Negotiations

At the ministerial conference for Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations that opened in Singapore, the path toward broad agreement was finally in sight. In a joint statement from the 12 negotiating nations, among them Japan and the United States, it says “we cemented our shared views on what is needed to bring negotiations to a close,” and indicates that remaining issues have been narrowed down.

I would like to welcome the increased opportunity to head toward a conclusion. At the previous meeting in February, Japan and the United States — who ought to be spearheading liberalization — fell into a deadlock, while the other 10 countries had an air of “waiting to see which way the wind blows.” At this meeting, what shifted each country to a proactive stance were the progression of Japan-U.S. talks and the fading of the conflict that had acted as a barrier.

The momentum of negotiations must be maintained. To that end, Japan and the United States need to hasten the final details and confidently show the other nations the contents of the Japan-U.S. agreement. While things remain in an ambiguous state in which it is not clear specifically to what extent there is agreement, there will be a lack persuasiveness and no power to press forward forcefully with the overall negotiations.

From now on, it will be a race against time. This is because the United States — the driving force of negotiations — is in preparation for congressional elections in November. The Obama administration’s trade policy is becoming more and more easily influenced by Congress and specific industries.

The protectionist power of labor unions, the automotive industry and so forth have great influence on individual members of Congress. The pork industry and others, which want to increase exports to Japan, have demanded a firmer stance. The closer they get to the midterm election, the harder it will be for the Obama administration to make concessions. Japan and the United States do not have much time left.

The economic scope of both Japan and the United States accounts for about 80 percent of the TPP negotiating countries. Measures settled in the Japan-U.S. talks will likely become the yardstick for the substantial level of liberalization within TPP. Each country’s response will change depending on how the breadth of tariff reduction on beef, pork and dairy products, the time frame for liberalization, and safeguards (import restriction measures) are settled between Japan and the United States.

I would like the Japan-U.S. negotiators to build an agreement with substance that lives up to the TPP’s reputation as a “model for 21st-century trade agreements.” An economically meaningful, substantial market opening — not just the apparent tariff rate figures — is important.

The urgent task of the Abe administration is to implement reforms that build strong agriculture without relying on safeguards by means of tariffs. Transition measures could also be necessary to support the businesses and farmers that would temporarily suffer losses. As TPP negotiations come to a close, now is the time to think hard about agriculture and trade policy, including this kind of domestic measure.