John Bolton, Us and Iran

Many of the writers and analysts among my Iraqi and Arab colleagues have unleashed a slew of very optimistic expectations regarding John Bolton’s promotion to the position of national security advisor.

Some of them have even gone as far as predicting an acceleration of decisions and timing for a new war. They expect this war will be launched by Donald Trump at the instigation of Bolton and the new secretary of state and former CIA Director Mike Pompeo, along with the rest of the most stringent hawks in the administration. This new war will be fought against the terrorist Iranian regime’s activities in the region and will target its influence specifically in Iraq, then Syria, and finally Yemen.

Their argument assumes Trump was previously ignorant of Iran’s terrorist nature and its activities in the region. Or it means that he hasn’t yet realized that Qassem Soleimani is the real ruler in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Lebanon.

Or it means that Trump hasn’t fully understood the threat the Popular Mobilization Forces pose to the safety of U.S. forces stationed in bases scattered across Iraq.

This also means that Trump was previously unable to move against the Iranian regime’s tampering with regional security. Further, it means Trump was waiting for these new hawks, Bolton and Pompeo, to step into the lion’s den so they might fulfill the promise Trump himself made time and again to enter this delayed war against Iran, its spies and local agents.

Anyone who has known Trump since he took his first steps on the ladder to money and business would say that he boasts about being the only one calling the shots. He does not accept partnership or guidance from anyone.

Trump’s popular television show “The Apprentice” drew many viewers from around the world. Viewers will remember Trump’s bizarre behavior on the program, especially his dictatorial style of managing his business on screen, and the way he dealt with his employees through insults and humiliation meted out to everyone both big and small.

One of his employees might ask: “What did you do today on such-and-such topic?” or “How did you deal with such-and-such problem?” And he’d say, “No, I don’t like that. You’re fired.”

Starting right after Trump won the presidency, thousands of people who know him well emphasized that he would manage America and every aspect of its local and international affairs in the same exact style he used on his popular television show.

Given that background and culture, there was no question that once Trump became president, he would also become his own presidential cabinet with no partners. Trump has become his own national security advisor, secretary of state, defense and treasury, and has taken up every other major White House cabinet position.

In addition to Bolton, Pompeo and the many other advisers and secretaries in the administration, Trump also has at his disposal the best employees in his businesses, hotels and clubs. The sun never sets on Trump’s business empire.

From the moment of his inauguration until today, Trump hasn’t changed in the slightest. Trump will put so-and-so in this position today and then tell him he’s fired the next morning with a short tweet sent while Trump takes a bath or goes on a business trip.

Given Trump’s character, the now common view that Bolton, Pompeo and other hawks in the administration are planning to ignite an imminent war against Iran to curtail its regional influence simply cannot withstand scrutiny.

Nothing — not a single thing — will happen unless Trump wants it to. Trump doesn’t want anything unless it proves lucrative in terms of profit and loss. His ledger doesn’t have any room for friendship or enmity. Everything comes at a price.

As for rights, justice, humanitarian values and freedom, it is flirting with delusion to believe that the human conscience will soon be awakened to do whatever it takes to reassure the oppressed, or those expelled from their homelands or struck by chemical weapons and barrel bombs.

If Trump had intended to do anything along the lines of what the analysts and commentators are obsessing over today, he would have done it months ago. But truth be told, Trump’s dictatorship, his singularity in decision-making, and the inability of any adviser or secretary to change his opinions or convictions does not mean that Trump is not determined to deter the Iranian regime. Trump may take action to deter Iran if its regional role exceeds the bounds set by Washington’s supreme interests. This is especially true since the region Iran is manipulating remains America’s hitching post and the great source of its livelihood, despite all these variables.