What America Won’t Do after Withdrawing from the Iran Nuclear Deal

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on May 9 2018
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Yuzhi Yang. Edited by Joel Horowitz.
Very few people in the world understand the content of the Iran nuclear deal, but now everyone knows America has withdrawn from it. People also know it is an agreement signed by the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, as well as Germany and Iran. The deal was recognized by the U.N., and yet, after America elected a new president, the deal was off. Regardless of the reason, the Trump administration’s action will diminish the reputation of the superpower he leads.

Apart from China, America, Russia and Iran, the other countries which signed this deal are all major European countries, and all of them opposed America’s decision. The Iran nuclear deal took two years to come to fruition and was no easy feat. The White House may have withdrawn from the deal because of domestic considerations, and President Trump never liked Iran, hence the action was taken without consideration for the consequences.

In addition to the Paris climate agreement, the U.S. withdrawal from UNESCO, serious trade wars, etc., it can be said that today’s America has become a highly uncertain superpower. America has an intense drive and an unmatched willfulness, so the possibility that the country will take foolish action is growing ever stronger.

What exactly is the benefit for America in withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal and renewing the imposition of sanctions on Iran? At the very least, the benefits are not as urgent or obvious as the immediately apparent drawbacks. Several Middle Eastern countries which oppose Iran welcomed Washington’s action, but this also impacted Pyongyang; even if North Korea did not express any reaction. Seeing how the new occupant of the White House easily withdrew from an international agreement has made North Korea feel less confident about the validity of signing anything with America.

After the Iran nuclear deal was first signed, many European countries tried to conduct business with Iran, and now America’s renewal of sanctions on Iran has put those companies at risk. The U.S. ambassador to Germany has already urged most American companies to leave Iran. America may not have asked other countries to nullify the Iran nuclear deal, but it has issued an indirect threat: any European company which refuses to support America could be sanctioned.

Perhaps this is how the White House wants to attack European business. Since it certainly doesn’t want American companies to do business in Iran, no one should have any business in Iran; European companies can’t benefit from doing business in that territory either.

Many European countries are American allies, but they are not acting to contain Washington’s wanton actions, and they cannot overpower the United States. On the Iran nuclear deal, the White House is not taking those countries’ opinions seriously, bullying them instead.

The Trump administration can behave so rudely to so many countries because the world is not united against Washington. America is not only the number one global power, it also has the most allies. For a long time now, the Arab world and European countries have not spoken with one voice when bullied or threatened by America. The old Europe vs. the new Europe, Sunni vs. Shiite, these have all presented opportunities for Washington to instigate conflict.

Perhaps Washington’s strongest motivation in leaving the Iran nuclear deal is weakening Iran. Iran has always been a Middle East force that the U.S. has trained its sights on. The current White House doesn’t want reconciliation, and believes attacking Iran could further divide the region, forcing other Middle Eastern countries to either fear or cling to America.

Iran will certainly use its own regional influence and launch asymmetrical retaliation against the U.S. Iran is less powerful than America, but it’s not the first time a small Middle Eastern country has made trouble for America. America and Iran, two old enemies, will now reignite the flames in the Gulf region.


这个世界上很少有普通人了解伊朗核协议的内容都是些什么,但是现在大家都知道美国政府宣布退出了它。人们还知道,这是由安理会五个常任理事国加上德国与伊朗正式签署的协议,而且经过联合国认证,美国换了个总统,这个协议就不算数了。无论如何,特朗普政府这样做,都会消极影响这个超级大国的信誉。


除了中美俄和伊朗,其他签字国家都是欧洲大国,它们一致反对美国这样做。伊核协议谈了近两年,可谓来之不易。白宫出于很可能是美国内政范畴的原因动了退出该协议的念头,而且特朗普总统就是很不喜欢伊朗,于是不计后果地采取了行动。

加上退出巴黎气候协定,退出联合国教科文组织,打相当极端的贸易战等等,今天的美国不能不说已经成为具有高度不确定性的超级力量,它有极强的行动力和无人能够限制的任性,所以它干出蠢事的可能越来越大。

退出伊核协议并重启对伊朗的制裁,对美国究竟有多少好处呢?至少那些宣称的好处肯定没有立刻显现的坏处来得紧迫、突出。几个中东地区的伊朗敌对国欢迎华盛顿这样做,但是这件事对平壤的冲击肯定很大,尽管后者未必会说出来。看到白宫新主人这么轻易推翻前任签署的国际协议,朝方对与美方达成协议到底管不管用就更没信心了。

在伊核协议签署后,欧洲的很多公司纷纷与伊朗做生意,美国恢复对伊制裁,使那些公司面临危险。美国驻德大使星期二已经呼吁德国公司尽快离开伊朗,美方虽然没有要求其他国家一起废掉伊核协议,但它的间接胁迫已经开始,欧洲公司如果有谁拒绝配合美方的要求,就说不定会遭到美方制裁。

莫非白宫就是想以此打击欧洲的公司呢?反正它不愿意让美国公司去伊朗做生意,那么干脆谁也别去做,欧洲公司休想吃美国没有动的一块肥肉。

欧洲众多国家都是美国的盟友,但是它们对华盛顿胡来起不到一点牵制作用,它们加在一起与华盛顿还是胳膊拧不过大腿的关系。在伊核问题上,白宫根本就没把它们的意见放在眼里,很有点欺负人的味道。

特朗普政府敢于对越来越多的国家不客气,根本原因是这个世界面对华盛顿时绝对是一盘散沙。美国不仅实力全球第一,也是盟友最多的大国。已经很久了,无论是阿拉伯世界还是欧洲国家,当被美国欺负或受到它胁迫时,极少会用一个声音说话。老欧洲与新欧洲、逊尼派与什叶派,都是华盛顿打楔子的好缝隙。

看来退出伊核协议,华盛顿的最大意图还是削弱伊朗。伊朗一直是美国重点打击的中东力量,今天的白宫不希望与它和解,白宫或许认为打击伊朗可以进一步分裂中东,使那里的国家或者怕它,或者依附于它。

不过伊朗大概少不了动用自己在地区内的影响力,对美国开展非对称的报复。它的力量当然比美国小多了,但中东比伊朗小得多的国家给美国惹出麻烦的例子并不罕见。美伊这对老冤家会一起把海湾地区的这堆火重新点旺。
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