The Collapse of Afghan Democratization: A Defeat Invited by America’s Overconfidence

Published in Mainichi Shimbun
(Japan) on 17 August 2021
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Eric Stimson. Edited by Patricia Simoni.
Should we call it the pitiless conclusion to the war that’s dragged on 20 years since the coordinated terror attacks against America?

The Taliban, Afghanistan’s former governing force, has taken the capital, Kabul, and declared victory. President Ashraf Ghani has fled the country, and his administration has collapsed.

The situation in Kabul at that moment was odd. Armed Taliban insurgents seized the institutions of government and even occupied the president’s office. Citizens could be seen fleeing in trucks and trying to withdraw money from banks, and American military helicopters kept evacuating American embassy staffers.

The American media called this “the fall of Kabul,” after the fall of Saigon in the Vietnam War in 1975, when embassy staffers fled by helicopter. It is a humiliating scene for America.

The Pitiless Conclusion to the Longest War

U.S. President Joe Biden’s withdrawal of the American forces stationed there spurred the instantaneous revival of Taliban control. They seized the power vacuum.

“The likelihood there’s going to be the Taliban overrunning everything and owning the whole country is highly unlikely.” Biden must regret these remarks he made little over a month ago.

In 2001, the U.N. Security Council authorized the U.S. and allies to counterattack against the coordinated terror attacks in America, beginning the war in Afghanistan.

The American and British militaries attacked al-Qaida, an international terrorist organization, and the Taliban, which harbored them, and stationed multinational battalions to safeguard the peace. The international community closed ranks to fight terror.

But the just war descended into a quagmire and became the longest war in America’s history. In the background, successive administrations lost their way in the war on terror.

The George W. Bush administration, which witnessed the coordinated terror attacks, followed the war in Afghanistan by embarking on a war in Iraq, which expanded the front against terror. The Barack Obama administration killed Osama bin Laden, al-Qaida’s leader, but then felt satisfied and disregarded nation-building in Afghanistan.

In a context of domestic war-weariness, the Donald Trump administration accelerated American troop withdrawals without heeding the despair of the Afghan people, and the Biden administration followed suit, underestimating the Taliban’s strength.

The Afghan government also bears a heavy responsibility. It misappropriated the huge amount of reconstruction funds invested by the international community for its own ends and ignored the rising voices of political distrust.

Payments to the army were chronically overdue, and the Taliban took advantage of that dissatisfaction by promising higher wages, attracting the youth. It is said that there were also cases of the latest equipment supplied by the American military being sold on the black market.

The war was decided when, as the American withdrawal progressed, the supporting government’s army could not resist the Taliban’s onslaught. They reportedly couldn’t help but surrender when major cities were attacked in succession.

Proud America stood at the helm of the war on terror; Afghanistan depended on America’s protection and could not stand alone. Its conceit and overconfidence certainly both exacerbated the situation’s turmoil.

Rebuilding the Net of Containment around Terror

The problem is how the Taliban will manage their nation. Earlier, they invited international criticism by interpreting Islamic teachings in their own way, forbidding entertainment and the education of girls and inflicting punishments like whipping.

Over these past 20 years, Afghan society has democratized little by little, and girls’ education has been protected. Now, it is said that in some regions women are banned from working. Reviving tyranny is out of the question.

The U.N. Security Council announced in a press release that it does “not support the restoration of the Islamic Emirate [Taliban].” It goes without saying that the global community must keep a close watch.

What is most to be feared is that Afghanistan again becomes a hotbed of terror. In last year’s peace agreement, the Taliban pledged to America that they would not harbor al-Qaida. However, they repeatedly broke their promises not to plunder the locals, and suspicions about the elimination of al-Qaida linger. The U.S. military fears that al-Qaida will make an earnest revival in Afghanistan within two years.

The state of the world greatly changed after the coordinated terrorist attacks. America’s exhaustion is striking — it invested about $88 billion (about 9.68 trillion yen) and lost around 2,400 soldiers in Afghanistan alone. Meanwhile, China ascended and is now in a position to threaten America.

The fall of Kabul will likely accelerate America’s loss of prestige in the international community. American-led democratization has failed, but that does not mean that the war on terror is over.

Terror is a common menace to global society. We must hurry to reconstruct an international counterterrorism network, including America, China and Russia.


米同時多発テロから20年に及ぶ戦争の無残な終幕と言うべきか。

 アフガニスタン旧支配勢力タリバンが首都カブールを制圧し「勝利宣言」した。ガニ大統領は国外に脱出し、政権は崩壊した。

 その瞬間のカブール市内の情景は異様だった。武装したタリバン戦闘員が行政機関を掌握し、大統領執務室も占拠した。

 トラックで逃げ出したり、銀行から預金を引き出そうとしたりする市民の姿が見られ、米国大使館員を退避させる米軍ヘリコプターが何度も往来した。

 米メディアは、1975年のベトナム戦争の「サイゴン陥落」で大使館員がヘリで避難する映像に重ね、「カブール陥落」と表現した。米国にとって屈辱の光景だ。
最長戦争の無残な終幕

 またたく間にタリバン支配の復活を許すきっかけとなったのが、バイデン米大統領が進めた駐留米軍の撤収だ。力の空白を突いた。

 「タリバンが全土を制圧することは、まずあり得ない」。わずか1カ月前の発言をバイデン氏は後悔しているに違いない。

 2001年の米同時多発テロに対して国連安全保障理事会が米国と同盟国に反撃を容認し、始まったのがアフガン戦争である。

 米英軍が、テロを主導した国際テロ組織アルカイダと、かくまっていたタリバンを攻撃し、治安維持を目的とする多国籍部隊が駐留した。国際社会が隊列を組んだテロとの戦いだ。

 だが、「大義」を掲げた戦いは泥沼化し、米史上最長の戦争となった。背景には、歴代政権による対テロ戦争の迷走がある。

 同時多発テロ発生時のブッシュ政権はアフガン戦争に続いてイラク戦争に突き進み、対テロ戦線を拡大した。オバマ政権はアルカイダの指導者ウサマ・ビンラディン容疑者を殺害したが、それに安心してアフガンの国家再建に目を向けなかった。

 トランプ政権は国内のえん戦気分を背景にアフガンの人々の失望を顧みず米軍撤収を急ぎ、タリバンの力を軽視したバイデン政権はそれを踏襲した。

 アフガン政府の責任も重い。国際社会からつぎ込まれた巨額の復興資金を私的に流用し、高まる政治不信の声に耳を貸さなかった。

 政府軍への給与支払いは滞りがちで、その不満につけ込んだタリバンが高給を約束して若者を取り込んでいった。米軍から支給された最新装備が金目当てで横流しされるケースもあったという。

 戦況を決定付けたのは、米軍の撤収が進み、後ろ盾にしてきた政府軍がタリバンの急襲に対抗できなくなったことだ。主要都市への進攻に相次いで投降せざるを得なくなったという。

 対テロ戦争で優位に立っているとおごる米国、米軍の保護に頼って自立しないアフガン。それぞれの慢心や過信が情勢をより混迷させてきたのは間違いない。
テロ包囲網の再構築を

 問題はタリバンがどんな国家運営をするかだ。以前はイスラムの教えを独自に解釈し、女子教育や娯楽を禁じ、むち打ちなどの刑罰を科して国際的な批判を浴びた。

 この20年でアフガン社会には民主化が少しずつ広がり、女子教育も保障された。今回、女性の就労が禁止された地域があるという。圧政を復活させるのは論外だ。

 国連安保理は「タリバン政権の復活は支持しない」との報道声明を発表した。国際社会の監視が欠かせないことは言うまでもない。

 最も懸念されるのが、アフガンが再びテロの温床となることだ。昨年の和平合意でタリバンはアルカイダをかくまわないと米国に確約している。しかし、約束を破って地元住民から略奪を繰り返しており、アルカイダの排除にも疑念が残る。米軍は2年以内にアルカイダがアフガンで本格的に復活する恐れがあるとみている。

 同時多発テロ以降、世界情勢は大きく変わった。アフガンだけで約880億ドル(約9兆6800億円)を投じ、米兵約2400人を犠牲にした米国の疲弊は著しい。一方で、この間に中国は台頭し、米国を脅かす存在になった。

 「カブール陥落」は、国際社会における米国の威信低下を加速させるだろう。米国主導の民主化は失敗したが、テロとの戦いは終わったわけではない。

 テロは国際社会共通の脅威だ。米中やロシアを含め、世界的な対テロネットワークの再構築を急ぐ必要がある。
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