Donald Trump Revives the Liberals in Canada
Published in Der Standard
(Austria) on 29 April 2025
by Manuela Honsig-Erlenburg (link to original)
The U.S. president's meddling brought about a shift in political opinion in Canada, serving as an initial warning for European Trump fans, but representing good news for Europe.
Mark Carney primarily has Donald Trump to thank for his election victory. The Liberal Party of the not very charismatic former banker with an understated demeanor looks set to have won 168 seats in the Canadian parliament in Monday's snap election, falling just short of the 172 seats needed for an absolute majority.
This is quite remarkable when you consider that the leader of the Conservatives, Pierre Poilievre, seemed to have an insurmountable lead in the opinion polls back in February. But after Trump's crazy annexation threats, the U.S. president became the country's No. 1 enemy in the eyes of many Canadians. Prime Minister Carney proved to be the perfect response. As the former head of both the Canadian and British central bank, Carney was well positioned to respond effectively at the opportune moment. Canadians came together to back the Liberal leader once again — a textbook example of the "rally 'round the flag" effect — complete with what appeared from an outsider's perspective to be excruciating patriotism at times.
Not a Blueprint
The old new government must now prove that it can solve the country's problems while continuing to contain the U.S. president. After all, the power struggle with the U.S. is far from over. With Carney as prime minister, Canada at least has a good starting point.
Conversely, the fate of the Canadian opposition was ultimately sealed by its initially aggressive election campaign, styled after the U.S. right and clearly sympathetic to Trump. Is this an initial warning for all right-leaning and populist parties that are using Trump's radical "Project 2025" plan as a blueprint and celebrating his election? To some degree. The situation in Canada is unparalleled in terms of the territorial threat posed by the U.S. And yet, more than 41% of Canadians still voted for Carney's rival, Poilievre.
Right-leaning forces in Canada, much like their counterparts in Europe, such as the Polish party PiS, Viktor Orbán and Germany's AfD, particularly admire the authoritarian sociocultural revolution that Trump is driving forward in the U.S. His success seemed to prove that they, too, were in for a "golden age," as Trump put it.
Erratic Tariff Policy
However, with the anti-democratic U.S. president having steered global trade into uncertain waters, Trump-supporting parties must now take care to distance themselves from his style, at least in terms of economic policy. Its luster could quickly fade once the economic effects of the erratic U.S. tariff and fiscal policy become noticeable in the daily lives of Europeans.
Shifting focus back to Canada, the victory of Carney and the Canadian Liberals is certainly good news for Europe's democratic parties. With the search on for new alliances and allies, the "most European American country" is an obvious choice. The alliance between Canada and Europe on the global stage remains intact and has potential for further growth. As a NATO member, Canada is prepared to play a key role in supporting Ukraine. Driving forward economic rapprochement, including free trade agreements, is likewise crucial for both sides. It is also thanks to Trump that these options remain.
Mark Carney primarily has Donald Trump to thank for his election victory. The Liberal Party of the not very charismatic former banker with an understated demeanor looks set to have won 168 seats in the Canadian parliament in Monday's snap election, falling just short of the 172 seats needed for an absolute majority.
This is quite remarkable when you consider that the leader of the Conservatives, Pierre Poilievre, seemed to have an insurmountable lead in the opinion polls back in February. But after Trump's crazy annexation threats, the U.S. president became the country's No. 1 enemy in the eyes of many Canadians. Prime Minister Carney proved to be the perfect response. As the former head of both the Canadian and British central bank, Carney was well positioned to respond effectively at the opportune moment. Canadians came together to back the Liberal leader once again — a textbook example of the "rally 'round the flag" effect — complete with what appeared from an outsider's perspective to be excruciating patriotism at times.
Not a Blueprint
The old new government must now prove that it can solve the country's problems while continuing to contain the U.S. president. After all, the power struggle with the U.S. is far from over. With Carney as prime minister, Canada at least has a good starting point.
Conversely, the fate of the Canadian opposition was ultimately sealed by its initially aggressive election campaign, styled after the U.S. right and clearly sympathetic to Trump. Is this an initial warning for all right-leaning and populist parties that are using Trump's radical "Project 2025" plan as a blueprint and celebrating his election? To some degree. The situation in Canada is unparalleled in terms of the territorial threat posed by the U.S. And yet, more than 41% of Canadians still voted for Carney's rival, Poilievre.
Right-leaning forces in Canada, much like their counterparts in Europe, such as the Polish party PiS, Viktor Orbán and Germany's AfD, particularly admire the authoritarian sociocultural revolution that Trump is driving forward in the U.S. His success seemed to prove that they, too, were in for a "golden age," as Trump put it.
Erratic Tariff Policy
However, with the anti-democratic U.S. president having steered global trade into uncertain waters, Trump-supporting parties must now take care to distance themselves from his style, at least in terms of economic policy. Its luster could quickly fade once the economic effects of the erratic U.S. tariff and fiscal policy become noticeable in the daily lives of Europeans.
Shifting focus back to Canada, the victory of Carney and the Canadian Liberals is certainly good news for Europe's democratic parties. With the search on for new alliances and allies, the "most European American country" is an obvious choice. The alliance between Canada and Europe on the global stage remains intact and has potential for further growth. As a NATO member, Canada is prepared to play a key role in supporting Ukraine. Driving forward economic rapprochement, including free trade agreements, is likewise crucial for both sides. It is also thanks to Trump that these options remain.
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