Israel Sets Its Sights on Trump, and the Iranian Nuclear Facility Is Not the Only Reason

Since one of the main goals is to eliminate the Iranian nuclear program on the one hand, and Israel does not have the capability to destroy the facility at Fordow on the other, intervention by the United States of America is critical; however, this is not the only reason Israel has an interest in Trump’s participation. Moreover, if the United States enters the war against Iran, will other Western countries follow?

More and more signs indicate that the United States is on its way to joining Israel in the battle against Iran as part of Israel’s “Rising Lion” operation, with the primary objective expected to be the well-entrenched nuclear infrastructure of the ayatollahs’ regime: the uranium enrichment facility at Fordow.

Given that, on the one hand, one of the main goals of the operation is to destroy the Iranian nuclear program, while on the other hand, Israel does not have the capability to destroy the Fordow facility, it is therefore critical that the Americans become involved. However, this is not the only reason that Israel has an interest in President Donald Trump’s participation.

Entrance of the United States Completely Changes the Equation

It is currently a two-headed war, Israel against Iran, with the ayatollahs’ regime able to devote its full attention to attacking Israel. The Israeli air force, specifically, and the security apparatus, in general, are doing nothing less than historic work in downgrading Iran’s ballistic missile, air defense, and nuclear capabilities; however, the Islamic Republic’s current situation is such that it can fire missiles at Israel’s civilian population, even if it does so in spurts of action — if the ballistic missiles weighing half a ton and more can be called “spurts.”

American involvement in the war will completely change the equation in Israel, Iran, and throughout the region. First, regarding Israel, the Iranians will not be able to direct the full range of their military and resources to their advantage, whether this is missiles or drones. The ayatollahs’ regime is expected to immediately direct their missiles toward American bases closer to them in Iraq, and the same forces engaged in these operations will not be available at the same time to launch missiles at Israel. Thus, the scope of the launches toward Israel is expected to diminish, but not disappear completely, of course.

In Iran itself, U.S. intervention would transform the war from one that destabilizes the Islamic Republic and its image among its citizens to one that is truly existential. The United States has the air, sea and land capabilities to destroy countries, including the ayatollahs’ regime. In Washington’s case, it is entirely a question of decision. There is no need for apocalyptic theories like dropping nuclear bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. It is enough to look at the strongest conventional bomb on the planet, the GBU-57, which is capable of destroying the Fordow facility.

At the regional level, all countries in the region are on alert, and not only Iraq. For example, Qatar hosts the largest U.S. airbase outside the United States, Al Udeid. Bahrain is home to the 5th Fleet. The importance of the United Arab Emirates is evidently considerable, given Trump chose to visit there and not Israel during his first round of Middle East visits. Jordan, according to international reports, has joined the Americans in providing air defense for Israel against missiles and drones. And above all is Saudi Arabia, leader of the Sunni world and Iran’s greatest rival.

The Economic Interest and the Oil Issue

All the Persian Gulf states fear not only a direct attack from Iran, but also a serious blow to their economies if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranians may take this step with the aid of military forces or deploy naval mines in order to prevent the 5th Fleet within the Persian Gulf from sailing into the open sea and triggering an increase in the price of oil. Tehran has an advantage by having jurisdiction over the Strait of Hormuz, the only gateway into and out of the Persian Gulf.

In a situation where the United States attacks or Iranian oil cannot enter the free market, the Islamic Republic is expected to resort to the approach that if it is not allowed to export its oil, it will disrupt almost 30% of the oil market from sources such as the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Iraq.

If this happens, it will cause an exponential jump not only in oil prices specifically, but the price of energy as a whole. At the same time, almost 35% of global trade in liquefied natural gas passes through the Strait of Hormuz, led by the company that exports more LNG than any other company in the world, Qatar Energy.

Will Other Countries Join?

This deteriorating circumstance could be the step that brings countries sitting on the fence — such as Great Britain, France, and Germany — into this war. There is nothing that hurts European leadership more than damage to its pocketbook, and a jump in oil prices is, in fact, the rain that gets everyone wet.

In conclusion, the more that powerful Western forces turn against Iran, the more Iran will be forced to deal with them, which will benefit Israel because it will no longer be the single arena for attacks on Iran; it could even become a secondary stage for attack.