Four ‘Surprises’ in the US Midterm Elections

Several major U.S. media outlets projected that Democrats had scored a sweeping victory in the midterm elections held on Nov. 3, regaining control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives. U.S. commentators said the result had “dramatically reshaped the balance of power in Washington,”* leaving President Donald Trump in a weakened position as he entered the final two years of his term.

Here are four outcomes that U.S. commentators described as “surprises”:

Democrats Score a Sweeping Victory

Before the election, U.S. commentators widely expected Democrats to win a majority in the House, while control of the Senate remained uncertain. In the end, Democrats performed far better than expected, winning decisively in both chambers.

NBC News projected that Democrats would win 258 House seats, comfortably exceeding the 218 needed for a majority. That would give the party its largest advantage in the House in 33 years. CNN projected that Democrats would win more than 54 Senate seats, including seven seats previously held by Republicans in states such as South Carolina and Texas. Democrats were also projected to win the governor’s races in five states, including Texas and Georgia, where Republicans had held those offices.

The Associated Press reported that, since World War II, control of both the House and the Senate has changed hands in the same midterm election only three times: in 1946, 1994 and 2006.

The Wall Street Journal reported that “voters delivered an astonishing rebuke to President Trump and his party”* and that “the backlash was more stunning than many analysts predicted.”* According to the newspaper, Republicans had launched a nationwide effort under White House direction last year to redraw congressional districts in their favor ahead of the midterms. The results showed that the effort had failed.

Red States Turn Blue

Texas, the second-largest U.S. state after California, is one of the country’s most important Republican strongholds. Red is the Republican Party’s color, while blue is associated with the Democrats. In the election, Democratic candidate James Talarico, a member of the Texas House of Representatives, defeated Republican candidate Ken Paxton, the state’s attorney general. Talarico became the first Democrat since 1988 to win a U.S. Senate seat in Texas.

Democrat Gina Hinojosa also defeated incumbent Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, becoming Texas’s first Democratic governor in more than 30 years. CNN noted that Abbott was first elected in 2014 and had won all three of his elections by double-digit margins. Hinojosa’s victory could hasten Texas’ shift toward becoming a competitive swing state.

In South Carolina, Democrat Annie Andrews defeated Darline Graham, the sister of the late veteran U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham, breaking the Republicans’ hold on the seat. Andrews became the first Democrat in 28 years to win a Senate seat in the conservative state.

In Kansas, Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton defeated Republican incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall, becoming the first Democrat since 1932 to win a Senate seat in the state.

Republicans Lose Ground in the Rust Belt and Farm Country

The Rust Belt and agricultural states in the heart of the American Midwest have traditionally been Republican strongholds. Media projections showed Democrats winning both the governor’s races and Senate contests in Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota and Ohio. Democrats also won House seats in districts Trump had carried by 20 percentage points two years earlier. In Indiana and Missouri, among other states, they broke the Republicans’ supermajorities in the state legislatures.

CNN said Democrats had helped build a group of potential political stars in the Rust Belt and agricultural states. These figures could help the party extend its gains in their respective states. The group includes Hinojosa, the governor-elect of Texas, and Rob Sand, the governor-elect of Iowa.

Even so, the results came with a warning for Democrats. NBC News reported that its exit polls found voters viewed both parties unfavorably: Democrats had a net unfavorable rating of 6 percentage points, compared with 18 points for Republicans. “Voters’ dissatisfaction with both parties is an important warning sign for Democrats,”* NBC News reported.

Trump Says He Was ‘a Little Surprised’

U.S. midterm elections are often seen as a “vote of confidence” in the president’s performance. In an analysis, The Wall Street Journal wrote: “Rarely in American politics has a president traded away so much political support so quickly.”* It called the Republican losses “one of the most decisive repudiations of a president”* in modern U.S. history.

After the Republican losses, Trump quickly took to social media to distance himself from the results. “I wasn’t on the ballot. If I had been, we would have won by a landslide!” he wrote.

Late on the night of Nov. 3, Eastern time, Trump gave a series of interviews to several media outlets. He acknowledged that he was “a little surprised” and said he was “absolutely willing to accept the election results and ready to work with Democrats.” He even congratulated Democrats, saying they had “done a good job.”

The New York Times reported that, before speaking with reporters, Trump gathered with several senior aides in the White House’s East Room to watch the election projections come in. Some people there described the mood as “gloomy”* and “like a funeral.”* “Throughout the evening, Trump vented his frustration at his political aides.”*

*Editor’s note: These quotes, though accurately translated, could not be independently verified.