Nuclear Talks with Iran: Bare-Knuckle in Baghdad
Iran is negotiating in Baghdad with the five UN veto powers and Germany over its nuclear program, but has not budged an inch. Tehran will have to realize, however, that it must compromise. Otherwise, a war with Israel is almost inevitable.
Patience and persistence are virtues without which diplomats can achieve very little. Concerning the nuclear crisis with Iran, the maxim Catherine Ashton has laid out also applies: “Time is of the essence.” Ashton, the chief negotiator between the five UN veto powers and Germany, has been engaged in negotiations with emissaries from Tehran since mid-April.
Judged by her standard, it is difficult to see the latest round of talks in Baghdad as a success, even if Western negotiators stress that a breakthrough was not expected and that they are discussing certain controversial issues with the Iranians for the first time ever. Their talking point is: we have found enough common ground to meet again and talk. But setting up a future meeting in Moscow is the only thing the two sides could agree on.
In fact, Iran has not budged an inch. And at the same time, the regime has managed to continue its program of uranium enrichment unhindered. The leadership in Tehran is well aware that the Western states are exasperated that the negotiations are dragging on and on. No one would benefit from the Gulf region sliding deeper into crisis, not least the U.S. government.
An oil price shock would massively impair the already precarious economic situation in Europe and the United States and would, as a result, dampen Barack Obama’s chances for re-election. A new war in the Middle East would pose even greater risks. Events might then spiral out of control.
So far, the talks are at best an attempt to manage the crisis, not to resolve it. This stalemate can continue until November, when it will be decided if Obama gets a second term or if it will be Mitt Romney’s turn to move into the White House. By then, Iran will have enriched 20 percent of the uranium they would need to build a nuclear bomb.
It is hard to imagine that Israel will accept this. Negotiations about more negotiations will make no sense if the regime in Tehran is not willing to compromise. It is not America or Europe who every day disregard UN resolutions and the decisions of the International Atomic Energy Agency; it is Iran. Tehran demands rights without adhering to its obligations.
It would nevertheless be premature and dangerous to declare the negotiations as a failure already. There is nothing left for Europeans to do but to let the oil embargo and financial sanctions go into effect as planned, and to prepare for future actions in the UN Security Council. It will be up to Russia and China to maintain their credibility. Without unity against the Iranian strategy of blackmail, war becomes ever more likely.
Patience and persistence are virtues without which diplomats can achieve very little. Concerning the nuclear crisis with Iran, the maxim Catherine Ashton has laid out also applies: “Time is of the essence.” Ashton, the chief negotiator between the five UN veto powers and Germany, has been engaged in negotiations with emissaries from Tehran since mid-April.
Judged by her standard, it is difficult to see the latest round of talks in Baghdad as a success, even if Western negotiators stress that a breakthrough was not expected and that they are discussing certain controversial issues with the Iranians for the first time ever. Their talking point is: we have found enough common ground to meet again and talk. But setting up a future meeting in Moscow is the only thing the two sides could agree on.
In fact, Iran has not budged an inch. And at the same time, the regime has managed to continue its program of uranium enrichment unhindered. The leadership in Tehran is well aware that the Western states are exasperated that the negotiations are dragging on and on. No one would benefit from the Gulf region sliding deeper into crisis, not least the U.S. government.
An oil price shock would massively impair the already precarious economic situation in Europe and the United States and would, as a result, dampen Barack Obama’s chances for re-election. A new war in the Middle East would pose even greater risks. Events might then spiral out of control.
So far, the talks are at best an attempt to manage the crisis, not to resolve it. This stalemate can continue until November, when it will be decided if Obama gets a second term or if it will be Mitt Romney’s turn to move into the White House. By then, Iran will have enriched 20 percent of the uranium they would need to build a nuclear bomb.
It is hard to imagine that Israel will accept this. Negotiations about more negotiations will make no sense if the regime in Tehran is not willing to compromise. It is not America or Europe who every day disregard UN resolutions and the decisions of the International Atomic Energy Agency; it is Iran. Tehran demands rights without adhering to its obligations.
It would nevertheless be premature and dangerous to declare the negotiations as a failure already. There is nothing left for Europeans to do but to let the oil embargo and financial sanctions go into effect as planned, and to prepare for future actions in the UN Security Council. It will be up to Russia and China to maintain their credibility. Without unity against the Iranian strategy of blackmail, war becomes ever more likely.