Rhetorical Questions for Assad

Published in die Presse
(Austria) on 11 September 2013
by Helmar Dumbs (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Ron Argentati. Edited by Laurence Bouvard.
John Kerry will soon find it tougher going. Whenever the U.S. secretary of state opens his mouth, everyone will expect to hear a sardonic remark that he was only speaking rhetorically. Meanwhile, the U.S. mantra that Assad is the one who has to yield is what has actually proven to be purely rhetorical.

But apart from Washington's massive loss of credibility, Kerry's poor choice of words in suggesting Syria place its chemical weapons stockpile under international control as the way to avoid being militarily attacked makes it seem as if the attack was Syria's idea in the first place.

However, the real winner here is clearly Assad. The events of the coming months may already be predicted by posing a couple of questions — purely rhetorical, of course:
1. What is the probability that Moscow will allow anything more than a toothless U.N. resolution without the West backing it up with the threat of a military strike?
2. How likely is it that Assad will reveal his chemical weapons arsenal in its entirety?
3. How likely is it that the U.N. inspectors will be able to make any progress in the midst of a civil war?

No, Assad hasn't the slightest reason to show his hand. Why should he surrender his greatest military asset because of Kerry's on-the-record threat of an “unbelievably small” military strike? Yet, he does have every reason to get into the game because he's holding more than just a joker.


Rhetorische Fragen zu Assad
HELMAR DUMBS (Die Presse)

Syriens Diktator hat nicht den geringsten Grund, mit offenen Karten zu spielen.


John Kerry wird es in nächster Zeit schwer haben. Wann immer sich der US-Außenminister zu Wort melden wird, dürfte die süffisante Bemerkung nicht weit sein, er habe das wohl nur „rhetorisch“ gemeint. Wobei: Das US-Mantra, Assad müsse weichen, hat sich tatsächlich als rein rhetorisch erwiesen.

Aber ganz abgesehen vom massiven Glaubwürdigkeitsverlust Washingtons: Vordergründig scheint Kerry, scheinen die USA, mit dem grotesk schlecht kommunizierten Vorschlag, die syrischen C-Waffen unter internationale Kontrolle zu stellen, den Ausstieg aus dem Interventionsautomatismus geschafft zu haben, den sie selbst angeworfen haben.

Doch der wahre Sieger heißt freilich Assad. Die kommenden Monate kann man sich ausmalen, es reicht, sich ein paar – rhetorische – Fragen zu stellen: 1.Wie wahrscheinlich ist es, dass Moskau mehr als eine zahnlose UN-Resolution ohne Sanktionsdrohung zulässt? 2.Wie wahrscheinlich ist es, dass Assad sein gesamtes Arsenal an Chemiewaffen offenlegt? 3.Wie wahrscheinlich ist es, dass die UN-Inspektoren mitten im Bürgerkrieg gut vorankommen?

Nein, Assad hat nicht den geringsten Grund, mit offenen Karten zu spielen: Warum sollte er sein größtes militärisches Asset aufgeben, wenn ihm ja ohnehin nur „unglaublich kleine Militärschläge“ (O-Ton Kerry) drohen? Aber er hat jeden Grund, sich auf dieses Spiel einzulassen, denn er hat nicht nur einen Joker.

("Die Presse", Print-Ausgabe, 11.09.2013)
This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

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