Will Trump Stick to India-US Trade Deal?
U.S. President Donald Trump's mercurial temperament is evident from the fact that, after signing a trade deal with South Korea last October, he increased tariffs on Korean goods by 25%, claiming that the country's parliament delayed ratifying the agreement. South Korea is America's closest ally in Asia, but when it comes to trade, Trump imposes his will.
In the trade agreement with the United States, India has promised to purchase $500 billion worth of goods from the United States over the next five years. However, according to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, India imported $41.5 billion worth of goods from the United States in 2024.
At this rate, how will it import $500 billion in five years? If Trump doesn't get what he wants, he can make arbitrary accusations and break the agreement at any time to raise tariffs, just as he did with South Korea.
Currently, celebrations are underway in the country over the India-U.S. trade deal, even though it is merely an interim framework. The details remain to be worked out. Trump has claimed he convinced India to stop purchasing oil from Russia, but India has not yet confirmed this.
In reality, as a sovereign nation, India should have the right to purchase oil from anywhere. Trump has reduced tariffs from 50% to 18%, which is lower than tariffs imposed on other countries. However, before Trump's administration took office, tariffs on Indian goods were even lower than this. India's former ambassador to the United States, Navtej Sarna, believes that Trump has damaged not just policy or dealmaking but has undermined his own credibility as a strategic partner.
Previously, American strategy was long-term, whereas today's system is under pressure from one leader's personality. Currently, India-U.S. relations share common ground on issues such as concerns about China's behavior, regional stability, technological security and a rules-based order.
If even one partner changes its approach, these issues will collapse. India must build strategic relationships where rules of benevolent hegemony do not apply. It would be better to celebrate only after the complete details of the trade agreement are revealed. Trump claims that it was due to America's generosity and protection that other countries benefited and raised their living standards, while the United States itself gained nothing.
In reality, Trump has challenged the kind of consensus that was built after World War II. He has destroyed long-standing values. Arm-twisting allies is his policy.
In the trade agreement with the United States, India has promised to purchase $500 billion worth of goods from the United States over the next five years. However, according to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, India imported $41.5 billion worth of goods from the United States in 2024.
At this rate, how will it import $500 billion in five years? If Trump doesn't get what he wants, he can make arbitrary accusations and break the agreement at any time to raise tariffs, just as he did with South Korea.
Currently, celebrations are underway in the country over the India-U.S. trade deal, even though it is merely an interim framework. The details remain to be worked out. Trump has claimed he convinced India to stop purchasing oil from Russia, but India has not yet confirmed this.
In reality, as a sovereign nation, India should have the right to purchase oil from anywhere. Trump has reduced tariffs from 50% to 18%, which is lower than tariffs imposed on other countries. However, before Trump's administration took office, tariffs on Indian goods were even lower than this. India's former ambassador to the United States, Navtej Sarna, believes that Trump has damaged not just policy or dealmaking but has undermined his own credibility as a strategic partner.
Previously, American strategy was long-term, whereas today's system is under pressure from one leader's personality. Currently, India-U.S. relations share common ground on issues such as concerns about China's behavior, regional stability, technological security and a rules-based order.
If even one partner changes its approach, these issues will collapse. India must build strategic relationships where rules of benevolent hegemony do not apply. It would be better to celebrate only after the complete details of the trade agreement are revealed. Trump claims that it was due to America's generosity and protection that other countries benefited and raised their living standards, while the United States itself gained nothing.
In reality, Trump has challenged the kind of consensus that was built after World War II. He has destroyed long-standing values. Arm-twisting allies is his policy.
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