Tehran Again Miscalculates
NO one believes that 15 British Royal Marines were "arrested" for crossing into Iran's territorial waters. It is hard to fathom that the televised confessions of some of these soldiers on TV were anything but dictated by their kidnappers. Iran must have planned the operation to ensure that the incident could be linked to other political and security issues, especially given its timing. It took place on the eve of a U.N. Security Council meeting called to tighten international sanctions against Iran for refusing to comply with U.N. conditions on its nuclear program.
Before he was toppled by a devastating international storm, we once saw such irrational behavior from Saddam Hussein. Iran cannot afford to follow in Saddam's footsteps, especially when we consider the huge imbalance in power between Iran and the international community. Iran's military parades may impress its poor people, but these will backfire.
Iran should discard the illusion that the United States has been defeated in Iraq and that the way is open for it to take this Arab country over. Iran should be aware that the U.S. and its allies have indeed liberated Iraq. Despite the huge financial costs of the war, America is not the loser. The real losers are the people of Iraq, and in addition, the people of Iran, who now must confront international sanctions. These sanctions will soon devastate Iran's economy .
The United States has not been defeated and will not leave Iraq. The current American debate over the issue reflects the nature of their democracy. President Bush has the authority to veto the decisions made by other institutions. Iran is mistaken if it thinks that the deaths of U.S. soldiers in duty in Iraq will exert undue pressure on the leadership of that country. The loss of 3,000 soldiers over a period of three years constitutes a very small percentage of the 150,000 soldiers stationed in the region.
If Iran's calculations were rational and free of political dogmatism, it would realize that it has lost the support and cooperation of the region's other nations. The money Tehran has spent on showing off and meaningless military parades will only lead to hatred and animosity against Iran. Having failed to learn any worthwhile lesson from Saddam Hussein's bloody history, Iran is repeating his mistakes.
By kidnapping British naval personnel and keeping them hostage, Iran has invited military action against it. Now that these sailors have been forced to confess at gunpoint, what will be the consequence? The answer is simple: we are about to see an inferno that will engulf the entire region.
Before he was toppled by a devastating international storm, we once saw such irrational behavior from Saddam Hussein. Iran cannot afford to follow in Saddam's footsteps, especially when we consider the huge imbalance in power between Iran and the international community. Iran's military parades may impress its poor people, but these will backfire.
Iran should discard the illusion that the United States has been defeated in Iraq and that the way is open for it to take this Arab country over. Iran should be aware that the U.S. and its allies have indeed liberated Iraq. Despite the huge financial costs of the war, America is not the loser. The real losers are the people of Iraq, and in addition, the people of Iran, who now must confront international sanctions. These sanctions will soon devastate Iran's economy .
The United States has not been defeated and will not leave Iraq. The current American debate over the issue reflects the nature of their democracy. President Bush has the authority to veto the decisions made by other institutions. Iran is mistaken if it thinks that the deaths of U.S. soldiers in duty in Iraq will exert undue pressure on the leadership of that country. The loss of 3,000 soldiers over a period of three years constitutes a very small percentage of the 150,000 soldiers stationed in the region.
If Iran's calculations were rational and free of political dogmatism, it would realize that it has lost the support and cooperation of the region's other nations. The money Tehran has spent on showing off and meaningless military parades will only lead to hatred and animosity against Iran. Having failed to learn any worthwhile lesson from Saddam Hussein's bloody history, Iran is repeating his mistakes.
By kidnapping British naval personnel and keeping them hostage, Iran has invited military action against it. Now that these sailors have been forced to confess at gunpoint, what will be the consequence? The answer is simple: we are about to see an inferno that will engulf the entire region.