Washington Signs with Prague, Negotiations with Warsaw Slow-Going

TThe American administration’s desire to conclude negotiations for the installation in Europe of a third anti-missile defense site (the others are in Alaska and California) before the end of George Bush’s presidency seems more and more uncertain.

Although on Tuesday, July 8, American Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice signed, in Prague, an agreement in principle to station a radar station in Brdy, southwest of the Czech capital, negotiations to install ten missile interceptors in Poland are slow-going. In response to the signing of this agreement, Russia, which is fundamentally opposed to the anti-missile “shield” project, emphasized on Tuesday that if it is effectively deployed, it will be “forced to react, not through diplomatic methods, but through technical-military methods.”

The Czech agreement is only the first step in the process. According to polls, 68% of Czechs are opposed to the radar project, and the agreement must yet be approved by a parliamentary vote, in which the coalition in power has only half of the 200 seats in the lower chamber – not enough for ratification. The opposition is very hostile towards the project. Liberal (and pro-American) Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek’s government, which should conclude a second agreement with Washington on the status of American forces stationed on the site, decided not to face the parliamentary test until after the 2010 general elections.

Ten American interceptors will protect Poland

In Poland, authorities are also stalling, anticipating opposition from the Polish population, in which the opponents – still the majority – are weakening. Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s government emphasizes the fact that welcoming an American anti-missile defense site increases the risk of making Poland a target for missile attacks from governments like Iran that are aimed at countries that “shield” America. They add that the ten American interceptors will protect Poland only against long-range missiles, and are asking the United States to install short- and mid-range Patriot PAC-3 missile batteries in the country, the same ones that the three countries who will not be covered by the American “shield” (Bulgaria, Greece, and Turkey) are asking for from the United States.

Negotiations, which have been going on for 18 months, seemed to have broken off several times, but the two parties always indicated that discussions were continuing. The Polish diplomacy game, which consists of drawing things out in hopes of obtaining more concessions from George Bush’s successor (the “shield” will not be operational before 2012), is not without risks. Emphasizing that their patience has limits, the Americans made it known that they had initiated discussions with Lithuania in case negotiations with Warsaw definitively ended. Polish procrastination is also linked to the changes in their relationship with Americans. Although they are fervent Atlantists, they have bad memories of the December 2002 purchase of 48 American fighters, believing that the United States did not keep their promises, which lead to a plunge in the market for the Polish industry.