For Democrats, Much Ventured, Little Gained

Barack Obama, who sold himself as the man outside the system, has gone back to playing it safe and has chosen his Senate colleague Joseph Biden as candidate for the vice presidency. It is a decision that makes all the experts and political consultants of Washington happy. But it seems more than questionable that it will have a positive effect on Obama’s campaign. In my opinion, by choosing Biden, the democratic candidate has done a great favor for his rival John McCain.

What does Biden bring [to the ticket]? Basically, well-groomed locks, a broad smile, and a statesmanlike air. And nothing else. He doesn’t bring a state, in contrast to the governor of Virginia, Tim Kaine, or the ex-governor of Indiana, Evan Bayh. Because Biden represents Delaware, an essentially democratic region. And, let’s be honest, Biden doesn’t bring experience. Because 36 years in the Senate of the United States is not political experience. The Senate is an endogamous chamber with an aristocratic flavor in that a seat once won is almost impossible to lose. An example: the main cause for turn-over in the [Senate] is not the loss of elections by legislators, but rather their retirement from politics.

Thus a senator gives less competitiveness to a candidate than a governor. Proof of this is that, since 1960, the US has not elected a senator to the White House. Always governors. Why? For many reasons. One is that governors have executive experience. They are used to fighting ferociously with the legislatures of their states, [unlike] the refined agreements between the gentlemen of the Senate. Every four years they face off in ferocious elections. And frequently they have term limits. Just the opposite of the quasi lifetime posts of U.S. senators.

And, now, despite all this, the Democrats put forward a ticket with two senators.

Biden does not bring experience in foreign policy either. Foreign policy is made at the Departments of State, Defense, Treasury, and in the White House. Not in the Senate. Participating in the hearings of the Committee on Foreign Relations of the Senate, which Biden has presided over for a year and a half, does not constitute experience in that arena.*

Biden’s record also could damage Obama with his base, because the senator from Delaware voted in 2002 in favor of the invasion of Iraq. Even better Biden demanded an escalation of the war by sending more troops similar to [the surge] carried out by Bush a year and a half ago, which Obama has always criticized. Also he has proposed that NATO get involved in Iraq, an idea that without doubt will make Europeans unhappy. And, those who hope for a revolutionary foreign policy from Obama, beyond speeches filled with commonplaces at the Bradenburg Gate, should read this exchange of opinions between Biden and the journalist Nir Roden** during a session of the Committee on Foreign Relations of the Senate.

Finally, Biden is bad at campaigning. The 1% of the votes that he won on the Iowa primaries in January affirms this. He has tried to be president three times. He has an inflated self-image that makes him seem aggressive and that doesn’t play in rural and industrial zones in the U.S. like Indiana, Ohio, or Michigan, which will be decisive on November 4. His electoral visit to a pig farm in Iowa last year dressed in a tailor-made suit was a choice example of his style. Biden, finally, does not have pull with Latinos, a group that continues to view Obama with suspicion.

Biden’s only advantage is that he is a baby-boomer. That is, a member of the generation born between 1946 and 1967. In other words, he can be attractive to a large portion of Hilary Clinton’s voters—especially female voters—who continue to see Barack Obama in a negative light. An uncertain advantage, given that Obama could have chosen the female governors of Kansas or Missouri to achieve [the same] objective.

Thus, in final analysis, he does not bring anything to Obama’s campaign. Of course this is a campaign that up to now has not managed to be competitive in state in which Al Gore or John Kerry was not also [leading] in 2000 and 2004, with the unique exception of Virginia. If this is the great change in style, strategy, tone, and substance of Barack Obama, it seems that everyday things get a little easier for John McCain in his bid for president. For the Democrats, much ventured, little gained.

* Translator’s Note: Biden also served as the Chairman of the Committee on Foreign Relations from 2001-2003.

** See http://www.tinyrevolution.com/mt/archives/002195.html