Obama and McCain Out To Conquer Undecided

Only 57 days remain before the American presidential election; the results of which will be historic, whatever the winning “ticket” may be. The two candidates having chosen their partners, the race to the White House – which has been very full of surprises up to this point – has entered into its final straight. Democrats Barack Obama and Joe Biden, as well as Republicans John McCain and Sarah Palin, must each conduct a fierce battle to conquer the votes of the undecided. L’Orient le Jour has questioned several experts in American politics in order to evaluate the candidates and determine which of the two “tickets” has a better chance of advancing to America’s top office. The presidential election of November 4th will not resemble any other as Americans have been called upon to choose between two “tickets, each unprecedented in American history.

On the Democratic side, the young and charismatic Barack Obama wants “to embody change.” If he is elected, the Illinois senator would be the first black man to conquer the White House. Consistently accused since his campaign’s beginning of not having sufficient international experience nor the stature of “Commander in Chief,” he chose Senator Joe Biden of Delaware, a veteran of U.S. foreign policy, as his running mate. Even though he has a reputation for being tactless, Biden is still very popular among the working class and retirees.

On the Republican side, the Americans are being proposed a hero of the Vietnam War, John McCain, and his young running mate, the very conservative Sarah Palin. If he is elected, the “maverick” will be, at 72 years of age, the oldest president to enter the White House and his running mate the first woman to become Vice-President of the United States. Although the choice of Mrs. Palin, 44 years old and governor of Alaska since 2006 could draw the right of the Republican party, this mother of five children has no experience in national security and foreign policy.

“The choice of McCain is both ingenious and diabolical,” assesses Christine Stansell, professor of American history at the University of Chicago. “With the nomination of Palin, he has succeeded in revitalizing his electoral campaign and in introducing themselves as agents of change to Americans to – a moved needed to counteract the Democratic voice of change. It is a strategic blow without a doubt,” she says. In fact, with this tour de force the Arizona senator has succeeded in creating a media “buzz” in the style of Obama while hoping to attract voters, especially those disappointed by the defeat of Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primaries.

“McCain has succeeded in identifying one of the weaknesses in Obama’s campaign,” stresses Mrs. Stansell. According to this feminist and fervent partisan of the New York senator, the Obama team has, since June, taken for granted the votes of the 18 million supporters of Hillary Clinton and hasn’t made any effort to rally women to his side. “The Obama team has even called the Clinton supporters moaners and sore losers numerous times in the press,” said Stansell. There still however remain doubts on the ability of Palin, who is against abortion and a lifelong member of the NRA, the U.S. lobby of fire arm manufacturers, to seduce the female electorate of the left. According to a poll published last week, 55% of female supporters of Hillary Clinton say that they will not vote for McCain, against only 9% who affirm that they will vote for him because of the presence of Palin on the ticket.

“In general, the supporters of Mrs. Clinton are fervent Democrats and will probably not vote for McCain”, affirms Mrs. Stansell. “What worries me, however, is that the millions of Hillary Clinton supporters may decide to abstain from voting, especially since Obama has still not succeeded in drawing their votes in courting their vote.”

Wayne Steger, expert in American politics, is of the same opinion. According to him, this possibility runs the risk of playing in favor of McCain. “The presence of Mrs. Palin on the Republican ticket could attract independent or undecided voters,” he continues. According to the latest figures, McCain must win 55 % of the votes of Independents and more than 15% of Democratic votes in order to defeat Obama in the presidential election. “Political scientists have concluded that the choice of the candidate for the vice-presidency has very little affect on the percentage of votes (between 0.1 and 0.3 %) but this low margin could be decisive in the event that the election were tight,” says Steger. The latest polls reveal that McCain and Obama are tied at 42%. A week ago, the figures gave an advantage to the Illinois Senator by 7 to 8 points. According to Steger, the advancement of McCain can be explained by the change in his electoral campaign’s strategy. This change, notably, occurred a few months ago after a rallying from Karl Rove, George W. Bush’s closest White House adviser.

“The Democratic convention was a remarkable success, but the Republican convention, which was launched in a somewhat gloomy atmosphere, was in the end more advantageous for McCain on the political level, thanks, ironically to Hurricane Gustav,” noted Henry Berger, professor of American contemporary history at the University of Washington. “This situation has allowed John McCain, on the one hand, to show his qualities as president, and, on the other hand, to disassociate himself from the very unpopular Bush, who did not personally come to St. Paul for the convention,” stresses Mr. Berger.

One thing, however, seems certain; the nomination of Sarah Palin is going to reinforce the Democratic offensive and the importance of Hillary Clinton within the campaign of the party. “We expect that the senator from New York will return to the forefront of the scene in order to neutralize Sarah Palin, who has positions and political thoughts completely opposed to those of Clinton,” estimated Henry Berger. “Polls reveal that 90% of Americans have made their decision. There are only 57 days remaining before the election and the battle will be very tight. In the mean time, anything can happen.”