America Needs a Breakthrough

Obama has been elected president. That which not long ago seemed impossible is now a fact. But however incredible his campaign may seem, the difficulty of the challenge President elect Obama will face, is completely incomparable to the difficulty of the task senator Obama faced.

He is facing challenges greater than those encountered by his predecessors over the last couple of decades. When Richard Nixon became president, he could focus just on the Vietnam War. Jimmy Carter had to save America from a moral collapse, and Ronald Reagan had to save her from an economic crisis.

Obama will have to deal with not one, but two wars. And the economic crisis may soon be even graver than the one in the late 70s. He’ll also have to face the notion of a weakening America, a notion now as strong as in the late 70s, and he’ll be responsible for reconstructing the prestige and reputation of the United States, ruined by the eight years of the Bush administration.

The president elect has a mandate representing the great trust of the American people, and the good will and attitude abroad, particularly in Europe. But the higher the expectations, the greater the potential danger of disappointment and frustration. Both in America and abroad.

During the 21 months of the campaign, Obama has shown huge potential which let him overcome many challenges. But because of the hope he inspired, his failure would be much more painful than a failure of McCain facing those same challenges.

Barack Obama’s intellect towers above those of many of his predecessors, but one should not forget that he’s also the least experienced and worst prepared candidate for the office in the last hundred years or so. He has never managed anything, nor has he led a group of people. A couple of years in the U.S. Senate provide certain experience, but it’s not a lot when compared to the task of managing a great bureaucratic machine and governing the most powerful country in the world.

The task Obama is now facing is made even harder by the fact that there are no lessons in history he can refer to, as no President has ever taken over a legacy of such a highly complicated international and domestic situation.

The world is indeed in a post-American era now, as Fareed Zakaria argues. This is not to say that the American empire has fallen. The point is that, to quote Dominique Moisi from his latest text in “Foreign Affairs”, the empire is no longer the center of the world. There are multiple such centers and, as Robert Kagan said, the situation resembles more the end of the 19th century than the Cold War or the post-Cold War period. The America vs. Russia game, the dramatic outcome of which was once easy to predict, is now over. And there will never again be the American domination which was still a fact a decade ago.

On the one hand, the center of world politics and economy has moved toward Asia, which is exemplified by the incredible expansion of China and India. On the other hand, the possession of natural resources has allowed Russia, Iran, and Venezuela to become more assertive. The influence of Islamic extremism continues to be strong. Afghanistan and Pakistan will undoubtedly also pose many challenges to Obama. And the world economic crisis has yet to show its full extent and consequences.

Comprehending this situation already poses a serious challenge. The difficulty of finding a strategy to deal with all those issues at once is enormous. And, truth be told, the world’s attitude to America has been schizophrenic. It usually cannot cope without America’s leadership, but it also doesn’t like it when that leadership is executed. The world doesn’t like America’s hard power, but tries to use the opportunity to weaken America at a time when that power is too soft. And besides, a number of countries simply want to see America as weak and as helpless as possible.

Obama will therefore have to maneuver, showing a will to cooperate with the international community, but not being paralyzed by its inner structures. He’ll have to reach out to America’s allies, but not forget that his actions have to be motivated mainly by the American interests. He’ll have to, as Theodore Roosevelt once said, speak softly, but always carry a big stick. Many foreigners awaiting Obama’s presidency with high hopes will likely soon be disappointed.

The most important objective for President Obama will be the reconstruction of a unifying, national American dream and restoration of America’s reputation in the world. Maybe even more: restoration of America’s image as a land of hope, as a symbol of openness and liberty rather than oppression; a land that inspires rather than scares or irritates.

And this task is incredibly difficult, but Obama is the one who is able to complete it. Just as his victory proves the existence of unlimited opportunities in America, his presidency has to prove that America can create new opportunities for the entire world.

The scope of opportunities before the new president will be just as big as the scope of dangers awaiting him. It is hard to predict today whether this presidency will be an opening of a new political era, or a failed experiment. Whether Obama will be able to redefine American politics and co-define world politics, or if he will not cope with the huge challenges facing him…

Today it seems that Obama will hold firmly the reins of power and the Republicans will lose control. One has to remember though, that two years after Clinton’s electoral triumph America experienced a major Republican revolution and the Democrats practically lost influence in the Congress.

Another Democratic President, Jimmy Carter, once inspired high hopes to win the White House, only to be mercilessly voted out of it four years later. Four years ago, after Bush junior’s second win and the Republicans’ huge triumph in the Congressional elections, the right expected a permanent majority and power for at least a decade or two. We can now see what’s left of those dreams…

Eight years after Bush’s dramatic win against Al Gore, Gore has a Nobel Prize and Bush has popularity comparable to that enjoyed by Richard Nixon as he was forced to resign in humiliation.

Compassionate conservatism, and then the war on terror were supposed to be the symbols of Bush’s time in office. One has to admit that since September 11th America has not been attacked. Nevertheless, the symbols of Bush’s presidency will probably be the Abu Ghraib prison and the Wall Street crash, which was also the last nail in John McCain’s coffin.

Bush’s conservatism turned out to be more compassionate towards the big fish on Wall Street than towards the common folks on Main Street. However, Obama has to be careful with his proposed redistributive model of governance, because even though wild capitalism is now taking its toll on America, theoretically sophisticated socialism could prove even more costly.

Obama’s campaign was led and won under the motto of change. What America needs though are not changes, but a breakthrough. It is relatively easy to imagine what it should entail, but accomplishing it will be much more difficult. Today, regardless of fears, Obama is a symbol of hope for America. Albeit difficult, this hope is real. We should wish America and her new President that their hope comes true.