Barack Nixon?

Barack Obama addressed the rulers of Iran on March 20th in a solemn message expressing his determination to “seek [an] engagement that is honest and grounded in mutual respect.” The gesture is an historic one, so much that it seems to signal the start of a thaw after thirty years without diplomatic relations between the United States and the Islamic Republic.

It’s been thirty years since the spectacular taking of hostages at the American Embassy in Tehran, which sealed the move of Iran into the role of the enemy of Washington in the Middle East. American diplomacy seems ready to take a new approach, one that was upset by the 2002 decision of George Bush to classify Iran in the “Axis of Evil,” and in spite of Tehran’s consent in the fight against the Taliban in Afghanistan.

This turnaround, should it come to pass fully, evokes a memorable precedent. In 1972, Richard Nixon shocked the world by going to Beijing to meet Mao Zedong and establish, for the first time, relations with communist China. The United States was looking to disengage from Vietnam and broaden their diplomatic activities in the “Cold War” against the Soviet Union. At the end of the trip, Nixon jotted down on a piece of paper the priorities needing to be addressed: 1. Taiwan-the most crucial (in reference to Chinese demands of a reduced American military presence in the region). 2. Vietnam-The most urgent.

Today is certainly a different time, but one could imagine President Obama rewriting the note as follows: 1. Security guarantees-the most crucial (for the Iranian regime, who want assurances that Washington will stop desiring their downfall). 2. Iraq, Afghanistan-the most urgent (American will in finding a solution to these two military adventures). The stakes are high, and the chances of success are far from guaranteed when faced with an opaque and prompt Iranian ability to dillydally. There is no indication that President Obama will take off for Tehran anytime soon, however. Washington would like a strategy that moves slowly.

The central question, not a part of the message of President Obama, is that of the Iranians’ nuclear work and its connection to military capabilities. Russia was solicited to apply pressure on Tehran. The Israelis want guarantees, as do the Arab countries of the gulf. Diplomacy has been reactivated and that’s a good thing. The peril of a nuclear Iran remains. And the time when it can be neutralized is reduced inexorably.