With Iran, Barack Obama is facing a dilemma, and not just because of Iran’s nuclear technology development.
Temporary contact between Iran and the United States was quietly established in 2001 when Iran began supporting America’s war against the Taliban in Afghanistan.
Now, Obama refers to “comprehensive” talks with Iran. It will be difficult for America to disengage in Iraq without Iran’s support. The situation in Afghanistan, where the pro-Western government is gradually losing control over the country despite all western assistance, is considerably more trickier. Along with the Taliban, private militias financed by drug-trafficking warlords have become the de facto reigning power in Afghanistan.
The Americans hoped in vain to build and develop President Hammed Karzai’s military and police forces. The poorly equipped official security forces are in no shape to compete with the wealthy and well-equipped drug dealers and the Taliban. To make matters worse, the official forces are so shot through with corruption that no one foresees them improving anytime soon. In addition, Pakistan’s efforts against the Taliban are failing not only in Afghanistan, but also in Pakistan itself.
It would be in Iran’s best interest to decisively help the United States in Afghanistan. Iran fears the Sunni Taliban as well as the narcotics trade, opposition to which cost $600 million and the lives of 3,700 security personnel last year alone. Iran also fears being overwhelmed by refugees from Afghanistan. Iran has close ties with various factions in Afghanistan that are opposed by the Taliban. Among them are the Tajiks, the Uzbeks and the Hazara as well as the Shiites in western Afghanistan.
Moreover, Tehran supplies Afghanistan with important materials such as crude oil and cement. Iran learned that exporting its revolution was a failed project and is now preoccupied solely with its own interests, an important component of which happens to be peace and stability in Afghanistan.
Could Iran become a credible new ally of the United States? Saudi Arabia, also considered America’s close ally in the Middle East has an interest in being useful to the Americans in Afghanistan and it also has the means to do that. The Saudis have a good deal of influence with the Sunni majority in Afghanistan, the Pashtuns. America cannot do without Saudi support. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia is the one Middle Eastern nation that fears Iran the most. Can America work together with two nations so opposed to one another?
Finally, it’s clear that the United States will make little satisfactory headway with Iran unless it recognizes it as a regional superpower, as Iran demands. Getting Iran on board with America’s goals in the Middle East will be the source of many future headaches.
Translator’s Note: Avi Primor is Director of European Studies at the University of IDC Herzliya in Israel and previously served as Israel’s Ambassador to Germany.
the united states will hand over iraqi on a black gold silver platter.
make no mistake the US has its eyes on that 40 years of oil reserves.
I have heard we are building 60 military based in iraq.
this so called war with iraq for their freedoms was about black gold nothing more.
I have not talked to one american that has offered any sympathy for the iraqis and their plight since we invaded.
most americans I talk to say it is better to kill them over there than over here.
the world has little understanding of the american mentality because they listen to journalists and politicans both bought and paid for by corp america.
follow the money and you will see who and what controls american media and politics.