The Strategy of Silently Leaving Baghdad

Analysts agree: the first 100 days of Obama’s administration passed and the new president managed well in foreign policy, the field in which his rivals in the electoral campaign had insinuated he didn’t have the necessary qualities. But nobody mentions the guest made of stone, with the squared features and the outlined eyes of the Iraqi Premier Nouri al Maliki. It seems that Baghdad has vanished from all talks and evaluations. Still, in two months, on June the 30th, Washington will withdraw fighting troops from towns, though things are not going well. The month of April, which ended yesterday, was the cruelest of the year: with the greatest number of deaths in terrorist attacks in the last thirteen months.

In Baghdad the violence level is rapidly becoming similar to that of the past: the dark ages of Al Qaida infestation from which we bailed out, thanks to the “surge” of General Petraeus – now assigned to the Afpak (Afghanistan-Pakistan) front. Two days ago two car bombs hit the Shia suburb district Sadr City, causing 41 deaths. At Mosul, in the north of the country, the situation is so precarious that there already are talks about possible exceptions to the SOFA [Status-of-Forces Agreement], the military agreement between United States and Iraq, and a delay of troops’ withdrawn.

At Ramadi, the main town of Anbar – the first region to rise against terrorists with the help of the Alliance – Sunni are now afraid. The Associated Press describes this scene: “The moment is coming when we won’t be able to help you anymore,” the captain of Marines told the local council. In response came a general grumbling of disapproval from the older men: “Things will get worse soon.”

It’s as though Obama, grilled by the economic crisis and gratified by the diplomatic difficulties in relations with Iran, Pakistan and Cuba, had chosen to silently run away: things are getting worse in Baghdad, but maybe we’ll be able to leave before being compelled to really cope with it. As if Iraq didn’t already prove that every time it’s underestimated, it can cause catastrophes.