Moscow and Washington Hurry Nuclear Agreement

Russia and the U.S. May Agree on Reducing their Arsenals to 1.4-1.5 Thousand Warheads

The preliminary Russian-American talks on replacing the START-I Treaty will take place in Moscow on May 19- 21. The experts [according to Nezavisimaya Gazeta] remark that even though both Russia and the U.S. are interested in reducing their nuclear arsenals, it does not mean that this process will go smoothly. The main task the diplomats and experts face is to agree on the rules of calculating the warheads.

As a reminder, the START- I Treaty was signed in 1991. The document requires that both Moscow and Washington decrease the number of their warheads by six thousand. The treaty is expiring December 5th. President Dmitry Medvedev and U.S. President Barack Obama have asked their governments to start the talks on the new document, with the results delivered by June. In accordance with these instructions, the first consultations between Russian and American teams of negotiators will take place on May 19-21.

The teams are headed respectively by the Director of MFA Department of Security and Disarmament, Anatoly Antonov; and Assistant Secretary of State, Rose Gottemoeller. While awaiting the talks on Smolenskaya-Sennaya, this time the parties in will not be simply exchanging their views, but instead, actively discussing the future agreement.

Why is it that Moscow and Washington are in such a hurry to come to an agreement before December? The truth is, practically the whole time that George W. Bush had been in office, the weapon control regime faced deterioration and crisis. Under Bush, the U.S. unilaterally withdrew from the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty; and Russia, in turn, has temporarily withdrawn from the Treaty on Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE Treaty). “This results in total deterioration of the weapon control regime, which had been the foundation of international stability for over 40 years,” director of the U.S. and Canada Institute, Sergey Rogov, commented in an interview with Nezavisimaya Gazeta.

According to the expert, the first full-fledged round of talks should allow for the parties to accurately define the questions for the agenda. Since the agreement in question has to do with the reduction of strategic offensive weapons, perhaps the other important questions – such as U.S. possession of tactical nuclear weapons, which seriously concern Russia – will not be discussed at this stage. “The two sides may arrive at the preliminary agreement on some key parameters of the new treaty, i.e., the quantity of warheads. Since both Medvedev and Obama announced in London their desire to attain even greater reductions than specified in the Moscow Treaty on Strategic Offensive Reductions in 2002 (there the ‘ceiling’ was at 2.2-1.7 thousand warheads), I believe, that now we can expect the number to be 1.5 thousand,” said Rogov.

In an interview with Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Colonel General Viktor Yesin, former head of the Russian Strategic Rocket Forces, confirmed that a number which can be definitely agreed on – without causing rejection by either the Russian or American side – is 1.4-1.5 thousand nuclear warheads on the strategic carriers.

According to the experts, the most complicated question on the agenda will be the question on the rules of calculating the warheads. The Moscow treaty does not address such issues at all, whereas the START I Treaty approaches seem objectionable to a large degree. The resolution of this issue will evoke the most intense talks, because the sides’ return potential will be determined depending on the accounting rules, i.e. the quantity of the nuclear warheads in reserve (the warheads that can be installed on missiles).

“Russia, unlike the USSR, does not have a big return potential. In this respect, there is a serious asymmetry with the U.S., since as a result of their removal of warheads from Minuteman Rockets and D5 missiles, there is now a potential of additional installation (around 2.5 thousand warheads, or, perhaps, even more),” remarked Sergey Rogov.

According to Gottemoeller, the United States is not quite ready to agree on the stored nuclear warheads. In an interview with Interfax, the Assistant Secretary of State made it clear that such agreement could become a “very important step in the future.” True, never before have the Soviet-American, or Russian-American treaties addressed the issue of calculating the warheads in reserve. Although, as a specialist remarks, it is unclear how one can oversee the compliance with such kinds of promises: neither we, nor the Americans have let one another into our nuclear weapons’ storage.

Sergey Rogov views the perspective of reaching such an agreement optimistically, but not until the distant future. In the meantime Moscow will insist on decreasing the quantity of the nuclear weapons carriers such as intercontinental ballistic missiles and ballistic missiles submarines, in order to attain limits on the U.S. return potential. “If the Americans agree on the serious reductions of the missiles’ numbers, then the return potential would decrease as well, since there will be nowhere to place the warheads,” an expert suggested.

It should be mentioned that Gottemoeller has already announced the United States’ readiness to calculate carriers: “The talks must concentrate on the strategic offensive armament, which includes both carriers and warheads.” If Gottemoeller’s talks with Antonov are successful, then it is quite possible that in July a frame agreement can be signed; or alternatively, a political announcement by the two presidents will be made, featuring the key parameters of the new treaty.

[Editor’s note: some quotes may be worded based on translated material].