Western Illusions Destroyed in Iran

Regardless of whether there was chicanery in the Iranian presidential elections or not, Ahmedinejad’s clear victory at the polls has put an end to a long-held illusion in the West.

Popular opinion held that the Iranian people were quite different from their apocalyptic leader, more thoroughly modern and westernized. The media regularly reported on a lifestyle practiced by permissive middle class youths in parts of Tehran and presented it as representative of the attitudes of the entire nation.

In fact, Iran’s Islamist regime of Mullahs now sits more firmly in the saddle than western wishful thinking cares to admit. Even if there were electoral fraud on the scale claimed by defeated candidate Hussein Moussavi, that would only be proof of how effective the regime’s dominance actually is. Vote manipulation had to predate the start of balloting on Friday: the only candidates allowed to run in this election were those considered tolerable by the highest levels of power in the country, the Islamic Guardian Council under Ayatollah Khamenei.

Reports by western media, however, repeatedly gave the impression that this was actually to be a free and democratic election pitting the powers of tolerance and reform against the worn-out forces of yesteryear. But that view not only misjudged how greatly Ahmadinejad relied on repressive elements like the Revolutionary Guard, it also underestimated the messianic effect his message would have on the poor and uneducated classes in the nation.

The president’s resultant success shows how manifestly effective his message was. It greatly expanded Iran’s influence in the region. His stubborn support of Iran’s nuclear program is the source of national pride and self-confidence. And Obama’s conciliatory gestures toward Iran produced a bonus for Ahmedinejad: filtered through Iranian propaganda it appears to the general public that America, the hated superpower, is now forced to swallow it’s pride.

It would be fatal to hope that a huge Iranian protest movement would be able to reverse the current reality on the ground. Fears that any protests will be brutally suppressed are far more likely to be realized. The West has to orient itself to another four years of rule by an Ahmedinejad who now sees his past course as justified.

For Obama, it’s a heavy blow. His conciliatory approach to the Islamic world was undertaken not least because it was hoped it would take the wind out of the hardliner’s sails and lead to regime change. Now, he has to accept the directly confrontational course set by the Iranians – and prove to Tehran he is capable of standing up to them.