The Latest Wall

Whoever still doubts how little authority newly elected U.S. President Barack Obama has, the Barack Obama from whom so many Europeans still expect so much, need only look at how their last best hope is being treated by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The most niggling diplomatic norms are being adhered to; Obama’s special envoy had to actually beg for a meeting with Netanyahu.

Now Netanyahu has made a few concessions to him: he has agreed to set a time limit on Israel’s planned expansion (!) of settlements in the West Bank. Provided that he is allowed to continue the expansion projects already begun, including those in Jerusalem, of course. Netanyahu has also already placed conditions on his support for the two-state solution: Israel is to be the sole guarantor of security and there may be no Palestinian armed forces. Any decisions made by any new Palestinian “government” will be subject to Israel’s approval, and, of course, the “security zone” in the West Bank must be kept. Seldom has anyone ever proposed such presumptuous imperialist-racist apartheid policies.

But Netanyahu is a politician who actually understands a great deal about the situation in the Near East. He also knows how much maneuvering room he has, and he knows full well what Obama needs right now: a success that simultaneously shows his limits. On all fronts, Obama has his back to the wall and, in view of the crumbling support of his own base, cannot afford to go up against the mighty Israel lobby in the United States.

If he did, he would be rapidly transformed into a paper tiger, a sort of administrative chief. Netanyahu, who has said he would be surprised if Arabs loved their homeland just as much as Israelis loved theirs (the Arabs who are allowed to have their homeland anywhere they want, just not in Israel) now sees an opportunity to manufacture facts. In every case, he leaves the toughest possible options – against Hezbollah, Hamas, but also against Iran or Syria – on the table. He does so in the expectation that, if worse comes to worst, he would never be left in the lurch. These tactics still work.

But not for long: time is working against Israel’s land grab. The reproduction rate alone, as cold as the term may sound, is already taking its toll. The international balance of power now consists only of the United States, albeit under the moralizing of a fanatic lobby, and the increasingly irrelevant European countries as reliable partners. Actually, Zionist Israel – as its population well knows – has no realistic perspectives, a fact borne out by the fact that so many Israelis hold dual citizenship. Whoever believed there would be a two-state solution now must realize that such a concept was never considered seriously by Israel.

What remains now are only two conceivable outcomes: the formation of a preferably demilitarized and secular state for all inhabitants of the region, including those born there and their offspring who have been unjustly displaced. But, as always, Israel would never agree to such a state. The alternative would be to clear out the West Bank. But that would require courage and a clear analysis of the balance of power. For Obama, it would mean political suicide. And that is what Netanyahu is counting on.