Risky Election for Obama in Massachusetts

The special election that will be held on Tuesday in Massachusetts for the succession of Ted Kennedy’s seat in the Senate ought to be a simple formality for the Democrats. The state in the northeast of the United States, the Kennedys’ territory for more than 50 years, is one of the most faithful to the “party of the donkey.” But a poll by Suffolk University revealed last week, to general surprise, a much closer race between the two candidates than predicted, crediting the conservative Republican Scott Brown with 50 percent of the projected vote, compared to 46 percent for his rival, Democrat Martha Coakley. An unimaginable prospect, there remains only a few weeks and a brutal awakening for the White House.

“Barack Obama Woke Me Up.”

A conservative victory in liberal Massachusetts would electrify the Republican Party before midterm elections in November. Above all, it would deprive the Democratic Senate majority of the 60th indispensable vote to hold on to an absolute majority, which is crucial for the healthcare reform desired by Barack Obama.

With this prospect in mind for the two camps, the campaign in Massachusetts took a frenetic turn these last few days. The president modified his schedule to fly to the aid of the Democratic candidate Sunday in Boston. Until then, he had prudently kept his distance, avoiding the use of his national image in a local ballot.

The stakes on Tuesday are high and truly national, though. Organizing for America, the movement created last year by Obama to conquer the White House, mobilized an army of volunteers in Massachusetts and the neighboring states. They must have passed tens of thousands of appeals to voters, down to the last minute Monday night. Millions of dollars were poured in the coffers of both candidates by national organizations and a barrage of political ads stunned voters on the local television channels, with the Democratic camp surpassing its rival on both fronts.

A sign of the crucial stake of this election, Barack Obama’s former rival, John McCain, immersed himself in the race by issuing an appeal on the Internet to all his supporters to support Scott Brown. Two days earlier, Bill Clinton came to encourage Martha Coakley, while former New York mayor Rudolph Giuliani beat the streets on Brown’s side.

Sunday, Barack Obama’s rally at Northeastern University in Boston was reminiscent of the atmosphere of the 2008 campaign. “If you were fired up in the last election, I need you more fired up in this election,” he shouted to more than 1,500 white-hot partisans, many of whom were students, while 1,000 had to be turned away at the door. “I wasn’t aware of the magnitude of the threat, but Barack Obama reawakened me and I’ll struggle to the end so that Ted Kennedy’s seat doesn’t go to that conservative Brown,” immediately responded a young Democrat, Kristel Patel, echoing the worry of numerous activists.

The Key to Independents

But, like many, the student had trouble hiding her anger against Martha Coakley. The attorney general of Massachusetts, dubbed the “ice queen” for her total lack of warmth, hardly ran a campaign, certain that she would win the seat occupied and “owned” by Ted Kennedy for 46 years. When she finally descended into the arena, it was essentially to attack her rival, who judicially presented himself not as a Republican, but as an anti-Washington independent. “What irony! Tuesday, Scott Brown will be the friendly outsider who fights against the establishment; like Obama in 2008, except that he’s Republican,” notes Daniel McNulty, a Democratic volunteer who will vote for Martha Coakley in spite of it all.

Brown, a former soldier with the look of a good kid, understood that the independents – who represent 51 percent of voters in Massachusetts and generally vote Democrat – are the most disappointed in Barack Obama’s policies. In Boston, they are easy to find: “I voted Obama in 2008, and I really respect the man. But his fiscal policy worries me, his healthcare reform will dig into the deficit, and it was directed by a series of arrangements in the hallways of Congress. This is not the change that we were promised,” regrets Martin Griffin, an insurance agent.

“Obama deceived me. I voted for him so that he’d repair the economy and to create jobs. Instead, I lost my managerial job and find myself driving a taxi and earning half as much!” adds Abe Belrhalia, a Moroccan immigrant living in the United States for 22 years. Before starting again, the taxi driver asked for a Brown sign from a group of Republicans who were shouting, “Go Scott! The seat belongs to the people, not Kennedy!” Abe will put the sign in his young sons’ room “so that they’ll believe in change.”