Obama, or the Diplomacy of Audacity

Forty-seven heads of state and government attended the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington. The U.S. president took the opportunity to address the core issues behind the scenes: Iran, the Middle East, Afghanistan…

Whatever the immediate outcome, the Nuclear Security Summit held in Washington on April 12 and 13 has undoubtedly enhanced the prestige of the United States — and of President Obama. We will remember this meeting of 47 heads of state and government as the largest gathering of world leaders since Franklin D. Roosevelt called his peers to San Francisco in 1945 to create the United Nations.

The implied message of this summit was the following: Barack Obama is the world’s leader and the United States remains the sole superpower. Not a word about America’s decline or the emergence of a multipolar world. The criticism rained down on Obama even before the adoption of the reform of the health care system has been forgotten. He is no longer weak, nor ineffective; he is the most powerful man on the planet and the solution to all its problems.

In the eyes of all, the conference marked a significant step toward a world free of nuclear weapons, a goal Obama defended in a foundational speech delivered in Prague a year ago. Before the summit, Washington announced a major change of strategy. Published April 6, 2010, this new doctrine explains that, “The United States is declaring that we will not use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear weapons states that are party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and in compliance with their nuclear nonproliferation obligations.” The “fundamental role” of the U.S. nuclear arsenal is to deter, not attack, he stated.

Even a chemical or biological attack against the United States or its allies will not trigger a nuclear response, but “a devastating conventional military response,” said Robert Gates, secretary of defense. The United States also pledged not to develop new generations of nuclear warheads. By setting these limits, the U.S. hopes to lead by example and persuade the powers that do not have nuclear weapons to renounce their acquisition. The only downside is that they are not prohibited from making departures from the rule. “Our message to Iran and North Korea is clear,” says Gates. “We essentially carve out states like Iran and North Korea, that are not in compliance with [the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty], and basically all options are on the table when it comes to countries in that category, along with non-state actors who might acquire nuclear weapons.”

Indignant, Iran has responded by accusing the U.S. of engaging in “nuclear blackmail” and announced its intention to file a formal complaint with the U.N.

The stated objective of the conference was to secure, within four years, more than 1,500 tons of enriched uranium and plutonium scattered over forty locations worldwide — enough to manufacture 100,000 bombs and to destroy humanity many times over. The main challenge, Obama reiterated, is to put these dangerous components out of the reach of terrorists, and al-Qaida in particular.

But in reality, it takes two to tango, and key debate issues were tackled behind closed doors. Obama has sought the support of Chinese President Hu Jintao to impose sanctions on Iran. He spoke separately with Manmohan Singh, the prime minister of India, and with Asif Ali Zardari, the Pakistani president, as the conflict in Afghanistan depends on peace between the two countries.

Netanyahu? Absent!

Obama also met with Nursultan Nazarbayev, Kazakhstan’s president, who confirmed that it would allow American planes to fly over Kazakh territory to reach the base in Bagram, Afghanistan. He also met with Viktor Yanukovich, the Ukrainian president, who promised to eliminate the stocks of enriched uranium inherited from the Cold War by 2012. And he has received many other leaders, including King Abdullah of Jordan, which shows his determination to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

For his part, Benjamin Netanyahu chose not to participate in this summit. The antipathy that the Israeli prime minister has for Obama, which is returned in equal measure, might have played into this decision. Perhaps he feared he would suffer the same indignity that came to pass during his visit to Washington a few weeks ago, when Obama did not smile even a single time for photographers and no joint press conference was scheduled.

Above all, Netanyahu wanted to avoid the international community holding him accountable for his own country. Israel refuses to sign the NPT or submit to inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Determined to remain the only nuclear power in the region, Israel has already struck in the past — the Iraqi facilities, in particular — to preserve that monopoly. It also threatens Iran regularly and totally rejects the idea of a nuclear-free Middle East.

Patience and Determination

The Israelis know very well that for Obama, the Iranian nuclear issue and peace in the Middle East are closely linked, and that, in exchange for its pressure on Iran, the U.S. president would extend a gesture of goodwill to them. If he manages to persuade Tehran to halt its nuclear program — which Israel never fails to qualify, in a dramatic tone, as a “threat to [its] existence” — then the Jewish state should, in turn, put an end to the colonization of the West Bank and East Jerusalem.

According to persistent rumors in Washington, if the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations are not resumed, Obama may impose his own peace plan — a scenario Israel wants to avoid at all costs.

Obama’s vision of a world free of nuclear power is laudable, but not without weaknesses. The threat of military action against Iran, uttered by Obama and Gates, and brandished daily by Israeli leaders, are unlikely to impress an increasingly confident Iran. On the contrary, instead of encouraging it to abandon its ambitions, they have pushed Iran to obtain weapons as quickly as possible in order to guard against an attack. Instead of being threatened and ostracized, Iran should be incorporated in regional security efforts, as advocated by Amr Moussa, secretary general of the Arab League.

The Washington summit will not resolve all the worries of the American president, but diplomacy is a long process that requires patience and determination. Obama has proved he has both.