An Incurable Oil Addiction

The Deepwater Horizon oil rig was considered a technical miracle. Stabilized by computers, it hovered over the ocean, sinking its drilling shaft a mile to the ocean floor and then another half mile through the earth’s crust, like some gigantic steel mosquito. Now, it lies crumpled on the seabed.

Mankind, addicted to carbon fuels, continues to suck the earth dry at great expense and considerable risk.

The drug is drying up fast. Current demand for oil is about 86 million barrels per day, but that won’t be enough to cover what’s required by a mobile world. This year, China alone will consume more than nine million barrels per day. That figure was below eight million just a year before. By the year 2020, the world’s economy will need in excess of 100 million barrels of oil per day in order to continue growing. Most experts consider this an impossible feat.

There are at least four alternatives that could avoid a catastrophic shortage.

First, the OPEC oil cartel has about four-fifths of the world’s oil — a vast reservoir. But the drawback is that OPEC yields considerable power in controlling the price of petrol and has been known to use it as a political weapon.

Second, a great deal of hope is being placed on Iraq’s oil, which would provide an additional five million barrels per day. But the political risks there are so great that that solution seems unrealistic.

Third, unconventional oil extracted from shale or oil sand may be tapped as alternative sources. The reserves are enormous, but so is the risk to the environment. Production derived from Canada’s tar sands, for example, results in the expulsion of three times more carbon dioxide than traditional methods, not to mention the toxic waste that seeps into the surrounding habitat. Mainly, however, is the difficulty of speeding up production in the face of growing demand.

Then there is the fourth option: deep water drilling. Rough estimates show that over the next ten years, the three most promising coastal areas — West Africa, Brazil, the Gulf of Mexico — and possibly the Arctic, could produce about five million barrels of oil per day.

These new sources would be a welcome relief for oil markets and the United States. Right now though, Obama isn’t pleased, and the spreading oil leak is taking its toll on his staff. The man responsible for overseeing deep-sea drilling operations at the Minerals Management Service has been asked to resign.

Stronger regulations are certain to follow, requiring companies to be better prepared to deal with catastrophes such as this one. But the United States is in no way considering a long-term interruption in offshore drilling. A recent survey shows that slightly less than 60 percent of U.S. citizens still favor this activity.

Even in the face of the ongoing oil disaster, the fear of higher gasoline prices is still overwhelming: The compulsive behavior of the addict still trumps any sense of responsibility.