Strategic Scope of the Oil Disaster

The explosion of an oil platform on April 20 in the Gulf of Mexico has intensified the debate about what to do in the U.S. energy field. In 1971, the country reached what the oil industry calls “peak oil,” which refers to the global peak in oil production. After it reaches a peak, it starts a permanent decline. Since 1971, crude oil demand has grown 35 percent, while domestic production decreased 30 percent. Consequence: Imports have increased to cover two-thirds of the demand. The U.S. has less than 5 percent of the world’s population, and consumes almost a quarter of the planet’s oil. In fact, it burns twice as much hydrocarbon as China. Forecasts for 2025, under the same conditions, are that the demand will grow 50 percent. This means that the dependence on crude oil from the Middle East, the Caucasus, Africa and Latin America will grow, as well as the political pressure on those regions.

During his electoral campaign, President Barack Obama pledged to do everything possible to diminish the dependence on imported crude oil, which some people have called the American “oil addiction,” a thirst that left Washington a debt of $50 billion in 2008. Obama has set himself the goal of saving more oil over the course of this decade than the amount imported from the Middle East and Venezuela. During the campaign, Obama was cautious about the convenience of authorizing offshore oil extraction. But once in the White House, he seems to have arrived at the conclusion that imports could not be reduced unless the seabed were exploited. Besides, giving the green light to submarine drilling is a negotiation letter with the Republicans to reach an agreement on new legislation about climate change. After the explosion on the platform, Obama pointed out in his balanced style, “I continue to believe that domestic oil production is an important part of our overall strategy for energy security, but I have always said it must be done responsibly for the safety of our workers and our environment.”

Obama suggests walking a tightrope. On one hand, experts show that the remaining oil reserves are under the sea and that there is enough crude oil in the Gulf of Mexico. The oil companies are only waiting for the authorization to drill and to extract the trillion dollars in crude oil. On the other hand, ecologists believe the time has come to say out loud, as the director of the Natural Resource Defense Council, Wesley P. Warren, has said, “This one is a gigantic wake up call on the need to move beyond oil as an energy source.” Obama expressed the need to create five million new jobs with an investment of $150 billion in the next 10 ten years, directed toward the production of clean energy, excluding hydrocarbons. Besides, he offered to introduce a million hybrid vehicles — with an output of 64 kilometers per liter — in 2015, and to introduce a program of limits and emissions bonds, and several other measures. The skeptics, who are quite a few, point out that it will take a long time to develop competitive and abundant alternatives to oil. Those who would like to go into this topic can take a look at my book Chao, Petróleo (Goodbye, Petroleum), which deals with this topic in greater detail.

The direction that the U.S. adopts will have important repercussions for the rest of the world. If Washington allows underwater oil drilling, enormous capital will flow in that direction. On the contrary, if Washington reimposes the moratorium, which was valid up to one month prior to the accident, the largest oil and gas companies will be obliged to develop clean energy. As is usually the case in politics, Obama is trapped between his programmatic promises and tremendous economic interests that seek to maintain their supremacy. Much will depend on the impact of the arrival of oil to the coastal states. The public opinion will have to decide which is worse: contamination or expensive fuels, and there won’t be only one opinion. Oil company workers will continue with their tasks. On the contrary, the affected ones, such as fishermen and other workers who rely on the water of the Gulf, will not want to see a platform in their vicinity. Regarding the rest of the world, everyone knows the conflicts that may whet the appetite for the “devil’s excrement,” as the Venezuelan Juan Pérez Alfonso referred to the oil.