The U.S and the Democratic Dividend

The immigration issue is back at the top of the political agenda in the U.S. Last week, Arizona Governor Jan Brewer signed the toughest bill yet on illegal immigration. Arizona has a population of 6.5 million and approximately 500,000 illegal immigrants. In Phoenix, this situation is politically and socially unstable, and as anticipated, the law stirred up strong discussions and emotions.

The southwestern part of the United States is not the only area interested in immigration issues. In Washington, Senator Harry Reid and Speaker Nancy Pelosi, both leaders in the Democratic Party, took the country by surprise with the announcement that immigration reform would be concluded by the end of the year. What can the American debate about immigration teach us about the politics and evolution of the United States?

In November 2008, two-thirds of the Latino population voted for Obama. While campaigning, Obama promised to change how the borders are policed and the way immigrants are treated when they enter the country. The Latino community and members of both political parties have reminded President Obama about his promises. Until last week, the White House faced a heavy Congressional legislative agenda — reform of the financial system, negotiations on energy legislation and the consequences of global warming and the retirement of Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens.

Two things altered the political calculations of the president and the Democratic leaders in Congress. First is the political cost of the Waxman-Markey Bill on energy and global warming during an election year. The House of Representatives has already approved the bill, but approval in the Senate is viewed by the White House and Democrats in office as a potential threat to maintaining the majority in Congress. Prioritizing immigration reform postpones Senate approval of the Waxman-Markey Bill.

Second is the Latino vote in key states. For example, in order for Harry Reid to be re-elected in Nevada, Latinos would need to make up at least 15 percent of the vote. By focusing on immigration reform, Democrats will almost surely lock up the Latino vote, but everyone knows that the chances of passing reform in 2010 are null. Conservative Democrats and the majority of Republicans are against it. Americans are divided. What is most important to Obama, Reid and Pelosi is the recognition of their efforts to initiate reform, highlighting the gap between Republicans and the Latino population.

The immigration issue is a paradox and an emotional argument ruled by hypocrisy and political tactics. But the debate over immigration is also a debate about the future of America, as Joel Kotkin explains in his recent book “The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050.” The American future will be much different than that of European countries.

Over the next 40 years, the U.S. population will grow by 100 million. Other developed and powerful countries will experience the opposite journey. Portugal, a country in which more calves are born than children, is an example of this tragic trajectory. Its fertile society, the important triangle of religion-family-children and its capacity to attract and integrate immigrants from all over the world explain the extraordinary demographic divisions in America as well as a society with an optimistic view of the future.