American Chernobyl

An uncontrollable industrial catastrophe, a moth-eaten system controlled by an entrenched Nomenklatura, a dynamic leader who wants to change things: Remind you of something? Of course—it’s just like Chernobyl, the Soviet Communist Party, and Gorbachev.

Let’s recall the 1980’s: The people of the time knew that the USSR was doing badly, but who would have bet 1 franc or $1 on its rapid collapse? And even less, this would happen after it had found a sympathetic and modern leader. Right from the start, he began bold reforms (glastnost and perestroika), all while changing his foreign policy through detente with Ronald Reagan.

And then Chernobyl exploded. The catastrophe revealed the fragility of the system. In 1989, the Berlin wall fell; in 1991, the USSR was dissolved. Russia entered into a tough decade of economic recession.

People today know that the United States is not doing well, but who would bet 1 euro or 1 yuan on its rapid collapse? And even less, this would be after they had elected a sympathetic and modern leader. Right from the start, he began bold reforms (stimulus plan and health care bill), all while recognizing that the United States could not manage all the problems in the world.

And then Deepwater Horizon exploded. The uncontrollable oil leak is a historic ecological catastrophe. It shows both the incompetence of big private companies and the inability of the state (following a previous failure after Hurricane Katrina in 2005) to manage the situation. Like Chernobyl, Deepwater Horizon derives its meaning from the context. That of a society dominated by a capitalist oligarchy which refuses any serious change despite the financial disaster for which it is responsible: Wall Street remains as solidly attached to its privileges as were the Soviet dignitaries.

In addition, politics, advertising and the media maintain the fiction that the American dream can continue without upheaval. But a pillar of American power has been shaken: that of cheap energy. Mr. Obama is trying to make his fellow citizens understand: “What we can predict is that the availability of fossil fuel is going to be diminishing; that it’s going to get more expensive to recover; that there are going to be environmental costs that our children, … our grandchildren and our great-grandchildren are going to have to bear,” he said in an interview with Politico.com on June 14. The end of cheap oil is the end of the “American way of life.” Will the United States withstand it? Presumably yes, but maybe no.