U.S. Mid-Term Elections and Sino-U.S. Relations

If we compare the Sino-U.S. relations to a ship, this ship has been sailing in rough seas since this year. From early spring to mid-summer, difficulties have been appearing almost non-stop, namely: Google’s quitting China; America’s arms sales to Taiwan; the Dalai Lama’s visit to U.S.; dispute over the exchange rate of RMB and intellectual property rights; and conflicts over the South China Sea. Observers have given precise and incisive analyses on the Sino-U.S. relations geopolitically and regarding the cooperation and competition between these two big countries. Most of the aforementioned issues are nothing new for Sino-U.S. relations, but the fact that those troubles are all happening at the same time bears consideration. America’s domestic politics, especially the influence of this Congress mid-term election, may be one of the factors that are jeopardizing the Sino-U.S. relations.

When Obama first took office at the end of 2008, the Democratic Party had two-thirds of the seats in the Senate and took both the Senate and the House of Representatives in its hand — a situation where the Democrats can run the country as they please. A year later, however, caught up in a hodgepodge of difficulties such as the subprime mortgage crisis, a shaky financial system, slipping export and employment rates, the difficulties in pushing forward health care reform, financial monitoring, and bills dealing with climate change and energy saving, Obama was squandering his advantages. Americans began doubting and criticizing the Democratic Party’s ability to run a country, which can result in the party losing seats in the Senate and House. Meanwhile, the Republican Party is taking advantage of the opportunity, hoping to defeat its rival in the mid-term election, bringing about a radical change and turning this country back on the right track. What’s worth mentioning here is the newcomer: The tea party. When the two major parties are engaged in a fierce struggle, this new element adds unpredictability to the result of the election.

America’s democracy means the candidates can use whatever pleases the interest groups and the voters to favor themselves in the election. With the background of a global economic recession and America’s slow recovery, issues such as the Sino-U.S. relations are used like tools by the two parties to get what they want. For senior Senator Charles Schumer from the Democratic Party, this mid-term election is an utterly important event; it’s not only about his reappointment, but also about his chance of being appointed majority leader. Since March, Sen. Schumer, together with other senators — for example, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham — have kept a high profile and tough stand on issues of the exchange rate of RMB and bilateral trade with China, which greatly increased his media exposure, gained him the approval of the manufacturers and secured his supports from the financial groups on Wall Street. According to the updated statistics, within three months of presenting his proposals related to issues with China, Graham had collected $2.2 million in election funds, rated the first among all the candidates. Now there are less than 100 days before the election, and America’s economic situation will hardly have any radical recovery — which makes the Democrats feel stressed and without solutions. Therefore, raising their voice against China is a good distraction. It pleases some interest groups and wins them votes.

China is the biggest developing country in the world, and America is the biggest developed country. Both countries carry a big weight in international affairs. As China’s economic development and rise to power continue, Sino-U.S. relations will bump into inevitable conflicts and difficulties along the way. The interdependence between the two countries is unprecedentedly high in the area of their bilateral relationship and regional and global affairs. Although the negative effect of America’s domestic politics on Sino-U.S. relations is temporary, we should do our best to avoid misunderstanding by promoting communication, increasing dialogue and defusing divergences, and lead the Sino-U.S. relations to the right route to a win-win situation.