The Enthusiasm Gap

In the U.S. congressional elections this year, disappointed voters will be calling the shots. The typical American optimism has given way to depression. An explanation:

The U.S. media has declared the approaching mid-term elections — in which all members of the House of Representatives, one-third of the Senators and many state governors are running — to be a referendum on Barack Obama’s presidency. The polls have been quite clear: The mood is against the president. The only question remaining is whether the Democrats will have a bad election outcome or a catastrophic one.

Obama can’t even count on his greatest fans, the Hispanics. While current surveys conducted by the Pew Hispanic Center still show that 65 percent of registered Hispanic voters prefer the Democrats — not down that much from the 67 percent that voted for Obama two years ago — the problem is the subjunctive. Responses show who Hispanics would vote for, provided they vote at all. But only half responded that they were definitely planning to vote this November.

The no-shows have meanwhile become Obama’s biggest challenge. Democratic pollsters speak of “an enthusiasm gap” between themselves and the Republicans. But why are so many of those who so enthusiastically shouted “Yes, we can!” two years ago, suddenly so disinterested in their one-time great hope?

At first glance, the answer seems to be simple: It’s the economy, stupid! But Democrats have known that well since Bill Clinton won the White House with that motto.

Nonetheless, the Obama administration, thus far, has had to contend with the most serious financial and economic crises since the 1930s. That’s not his fault. In fact, he did everything he could to prevent even worse from happening. He saved the banking industry from total collapse and pushed through a major financial reform package. However, the problem is that you don’t make points with voters by enacting taxpayer-funded bank bailout legislation and thousands of pages of diaper-soft legal compromises.

What the voters see is the shape of the economy where it affects them most personally: in the real estate and labor markets. More than 100,000 homes per month are repossessed and auctioned off in the United States. Nearly 15 million Americans are unemployed. Last month alone, 95,000 more jobs were lost in the U.S. The unemployment rate is hovering around a record 9.6 percent.

And the reality in the American labor market is even more serious than the numbers indicate. If one includes those part time employees who would prefer full time jobs, the unemployment rate jumps to 17 percent. And that’s in a country where the social safety net has many more holes than it does here in Germany.

Mobile Dissatisfaction

But does that explain the miserable approval rating for Democrats? No, because Obama’s personal approval is even lower than the economic situation warrants; however, respondents criticize not only the administration’s economic policies. Last summer, a survey conducted by the Democratic organization “Democracy Corps” revealed that Americans see high unemployment as less of a problem (6 percent) than in their belief that Obama is a socialist or a communist (8 percent).

Taken as a whole, the outcome of the various surveys is simple: Americans are generally dissatisfied. Dissatisfied with health care reform, dissatisfied with the handling of the Gulf of Mexico oil spill, dissatisfied with high budget deficits, the lack of opposition to Chinese dumping of low-cost merchandise or illegal immigration — whatever pollsters decide to include in their surveys. And this dissatisfaction impacts not only Democrats; it also impacts Republican representatives and Senators who stand to lose their seats to those running on the radical, right-wing tea party ticket.

Demoralized Optimism

America has already weathered somewhat hefty recessions, most recently the bursting of the dot-com bubble. The pattern has so far been that optimism revived more quickly than the economy itself. After all, isn’t America the land of unlimited opportunity where anyone can rise from dishwasher to millionaire (or at least have the opportunity to do so, provided enough effort is applied)? The recession will undoubtedly end, so why worry about a job lost here and there? The difference this time is that public self-confidence has been shaken to the core and insecurity is on the rise.

The hottest subject in the upcoming election — immigration policy — reflects that. In America — the classic land of immigration — more and more people are identifying with right-wing hard-liners who want to arrest everybody at the borders. Arizona has already passed an extra strict immigration law. Next door, in the traditionally rights-minded state of New Mexico, a lawyer with a background in immigration law seeks to become governor, campaigning with the anti-illegal immigration slogan “Where is the person that’s attacking us?” The escalating level of xenophobia among Americans is rapidly approaching that of Europeans.

Obama sought the help of a supporter prior to election day: Bill “it’s-the-economy” Clinton, who, despite losing his congressional majority in the mid-term elections, went on to handily win reelection to the White House two years later. But things are different this time. The most amazing thing about this situation is the extent to which the economic crisis is threatening the American Dream.