An Election That Matters

In spite of the hopes, expressed by various analysts, that to reduce its dependence on the United States, Colombia should diversify its relationships with the rest of the world — and although in recent years some steps have been taken in this direction — there is no doubt that the ties that bind Bogotá to Washington are strong. Nor is there doubt that currently the decisions made by the government and the Congress of the world power greatly affect Colombian growth.

Therefore, the Congressional elections today (Tuesday) in the United States are of great importance for the country on different fronts: from business to politics, to the thorny issue of the fight against illegal drugs and the terrorism that feeds off of this business.

And it is not just about the renewal of the House of Representatives, or a good part of the Senate and various governors. There are several referendums, including the very controversial one in California with respect to the proposal to open the doors to the legalization of the production, sale and consumption of marijuana in this important region.

But, aside from this issue, the results of the Congressional election are immensely important. The Democratic majorities achieved alongside Barack Obama’s extraordinary victory two years ago hardened the position of Washington against the adoption of the Colombian Free Trade Agreement, signed almost five years ago in Colombia. The hard line of the Democrats, represented by Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, openly worked to freeze the approval process for the treaty. It is just this line that could be most damaged today by the reaction of the conservative sector of middle-class Americans against what leaders of the right call “the socialism” of Obama and his party.

The different polls put the Republicans, who are more friendly toward this type of agreement, taking control of the House of Representatives, where they could have as many as a half dozen seats more than those necessary to make a majority. The projections with regard to the Senate are less negative for the Democrats: There, they could maintain their lead, but by a much slimmer margin. In any case, the outlook for the Free Trade Agreement with Colombia will improve if these predictions come true.

The net result for the White House is that, with this renewal of Congress, it will be obligated to negotiate with the Republicans in various critical fronts such as measures taken for economic recovery, cutting the federal deficit and foreign relations. And in this final area, there is something that could mean a lot for Colombia. Obama and his Secretary of State Hillary Clinton have been rather indifferent to the aggressive tone of Hugo Chávez toward Washington. Although his spokespeople have expressed concerns with issues such as reductions in freedom of the press, expropriations and even the project of building — with Russia’s help — a nuclear reactor, these declarations have not become anything more than mere matters of record.

But this could turn around. With a Congress where the Republicans dominate the House and share power in the Senate, things will be different: There might be a more assertive stance against Chávez, his revolutionary process and his bold energy projects. How will he react if he feels more pressure? Will this affect the tense relations with Colombia? It is hard to predict, but this is one more reason to watch the electoral results today in the United States carefully.