Obama or the Hard Return to Reality

“Yes we can!” Barack Obama was triumphantly elected two years ago as president, sparking excessive hope around the world. Today, the Democrats are recovering from a severe defeat in the midterm elections. This failure is also their own. Even though the sanction vote did not end up as such a debacle for Democrats as people had feared, the Republicans easily took over the House of Representatives and scored seats in the Senate without acquiring the majority. The wave of Republican victory stopped at the frontiers of California. What a weak consolation!

The causes of defeat are known: the obstinately rising unemployment rate, the feeling that the middle class is threatened and Obama’s health care reform. The president disappointed his supporters and disgusted his adversaries with his shortcomings. The risk of a politically divided America is the paralysis between the House with a Republican majority and a Democratic president.

Of course, the cohabitation is a quasi-tradition in the United States and does not necessarily put a stop to all reform. In his time, Republican Ronald Reagan proved this, and so did Bill Clinton. But the biggest difference is that America today is coming out of the worst crisis since the 1930s. If the country maintains its rank as the strongest world power, it will be competing more and more with China and other emerging world powers. However, any paralysis could prevent President Obama from achieving necessary reforms, such as financial regulation, or force him to accept the continuation of tax cuts adopted under George Bush.

The question is to find out if the Republicans are ready for compromise and for Barack Obama to return to the realities of American politics. If the art of discourse and promises are important, under no circumstances will he replace the difficult negotiations to secure the majority in Congress. But Barack Obama has the key to construct a “consensus”: From now on, the Republicans will be in part responsible for his failures. In addition, they risk being embarrassed by the ultraconservatives of the tea party, who are considered to have contributed to their victory. There is a certainty, like the future Republican Speaker of the House John Boehner said: Barack Obama is going to have to change directions. But to where?