The Sarkozy-Obama Summit and the Middle East

Will President Sarkozy raise the issue of Lebanon, Syria, Iran and the peace process during his Monday meeting with President Obama at the White House?

Of course there are other topics that interest the French president, namely dealing with the economic crisis that continues to afflict Europe and the West in particular, especially as he heads the G-20 and G-8 groups. Sarkozy is invested in the success of his presidency over these two groups, hoping they will bolster him for a 2012 nomination for a second term as French president. Sarkozy is arriving in Washington to convince Obama of the necessity to undertake global economic reform, which is the main priority of this summit.

However, Sarkozy is also relying on a French role in Israeli-Syrian peace talks, and also in the field of Israeli-Palestinian peace talks. Paris announced its disappointment at the failure of the U.S. in pushing peace talks between the Israelis and Palestinians, and Sarkozy has said more than once that all the conditions for peace between the Palestinians and Israelis are known, but the problem lies in the current approach. The French president wants to convene a conference with large, influential countries participating. This way the peace process can continue by keeping the pressure on all parties involved.

Topics of interest between the two presidents are varied. The crisis in the Ivory Coast may occupy them, but the issue of the Middle East, Syria, Iran, Lebanon and the implications of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon may also be among the topics that are raised at this summit. The U.S. administration is not satisfied with President Sarkozy’s procedure of receiving Lebanese opposition members, which happened with General Michel Aoun. The U.S. administration also differs from its French ally over its policy of engaging with Syria. It is true that President Obama appointed an ambassador to Damascus (bypassing Congress) as part of his decision to engage, but his administration considers Paris hasty in opening its doors to Syrian relations before obtaining confirmation from the Syrians about Lebanon’s stability, and that Syria’s allies in Lebanon will not obstruct the work of the government. Paris sees that there is no coordination with the U.S. administration when it comes to Lebanon and Syria because the U.S. and French approaches toward these two countries are different. However, both agree on the necessity of continuing the Special Tribunal for Lebanon and that allowing the killers of Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri to escape punishment is unacceptable, despite pressure from the Lebanese opposition.

There is no doubt that the repercussions of the Special Tribunal over the situation in Lebanon and the influence of Iran over Hezbollah and Hamas will be among the topics that the two presidents will raise when they reach the subject of the Middle East. Paris wants Lebanon to avoid a security flare-up or crisis situation when the indictment decision is issued, which may be this February or March. French efforts have already begun by receiving Syrian President Bashar Al Assad in Paris when Sarkozy confirmed that he had chosen stability over unrest in the region. But there is another player on the ground in Lebanon which is important because of its ability to obstruct. This player is Iran, whose leader announced that the Special Tribunal for Lebanon is invalid and unacceptable.

Despite the fact that no one has the ability to interfere in the work of Special Tribunal Prosecutor Daniel Bellemare, the Obama-Sarkozy talks on Monday at the White House will be important regarding the Middle East, but will not be decisive on any one topic due to the differences in approach of the two countries.