The Shaken International Order and How to Build the Asia-Pacific Era

With the rise of emerging nations such as China and India, the international order with America as the axis supported by Japan and the nations of Europe with America has begun to tremble on a grand scale.

China, which we watched surpass Japan’s GDP last year, will continue to increase its military strength this year and exhibit its presence on the international stage.

Meanwhile, America has its hands full with two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the worst budget deficit in history, and a persistent, serious unemployment situation. The Obama administration is preparing for the presidential election next year, and their inclination to prioritize trends in public opinion is obvious.

Political and economic turmoil continue in Japan and Europe as well.

While globalization continues, it is inevitable that the world will transform from the unipolar rule of America to a multipolar era that includes emerging nations.

How should we form the new order in response to such an environment change? For the Asia-Pacific region that is the “development center of the world,” this is an extremely important matter.

Improvement of Sino-American Relations for Regional Stability

Noteworthy for predictions of world trends for the coming year is the summit meeting between President Obama and Chinese President Hu Jintao that opens on the 19th of this month in Washington.

How to restore mutual trust will be the focus of the meeting. Though the two countries have deep economic interdependence, there have been noticeable frictions since last year.

China opposes the sale of weapons to Taiwan, and suspended high-level military exchanges with America until the end of the year. Expansion of Chinese open ocean naval power threatens America’s sphere of influence. China has made a complete change from the “peaceful rise to power” that they formerly advocated.

America is also emphasizing caution toward China. In disputes over interests in the East China Sea and South China Sea, America has supported countries like Japan as they confront China. This is due to a sense of danger regarding the freedom of the seas being threatened by China.

Both countries have a responsibility to take the summit meeting as an opportunity to reset relations and construct a framework for building trust. The improvement of Sino-American relations contributes to the stability and prosperity of the Asia-Pacific region.

India as a Pillar in the New Order

Various frameworks have already been put in place in the Asia-Pacific region in response to changes in the international environment.

Japan must assertively participate in these frameworks and play a central role in creation processes leading to the stability of both the Pacific Ocean region and a far-reaching East Asia, including India.

Regarding the creation of economic orders, as supervisor of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), America is aiming for an early settlement of negotiations at November’s Hawaii summit with the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership (TPP).

China is proposing a free trade sphere with China as the core to ASEAN Plus Three [the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) with the addition of Japan, Korea and China].

First of all, Japan should participate in TPP and assist with the creation of a gigantic free trade sphere that takes in India and China.

Strengthening connections with the region’s nations and making a functional trust-building framework that can deal with the pending security guarantee problems will lead to the stability of the entire region.

In that sense, I look forward to the East Asia summit meeting planned by Indonesia for October of this year.

America and Russia will for the first time join the 16 participant countries (which include Japan, China, Korea, New Zealand, Australia and India) at the approaching sixth meeting of the 10 ASEAN nations. Concurrent with discussions regarding traditional economics, efforts in the area of governmental security guarantees will be intensified.

In the creation of the new international order, India’s presence is indispensable as a principle post along with Japan, America, China and Korea.

India can geopolitically constrain China with its comparably gigantic market. Most importantly, it is a major power that shares the values of democracy and the rule of law with countries like Japan and America.

Japan must make its relationship with India much stronger.

International Pressure on North Korea’s Nukes

In the Asia-Pacific region, North Korea’s continuation of nuclear development has become the main cause of instability.

International pressure for North Korea to abandon its nuclear program has been growing, even from China, which has consistently defended North Korea.

A six-nation conference of Japan, America, China, Korea and Russia is aiming at the common goal of North Korean nuclear disarmament. They may be able to achieve some results.

This year we must test the efficiency and promise of the framework of the six-nation conference.