Tired but Exhausted

America grew tired of Bush’s crusade, of trying to re-indoctrinate the Muslims and also of supporting Israel. She wants to deal with the domestic issues and earn the sympathy of those hating her. Israel will have to get by on her own.

The first decade of the 21st century opened with a disappointment: the failure of the Camp David Summit in June 2000 when there had been a strong president in Washington, who invested almost all of himself in the process. In Israel, there had been elected a prime minister on the surge of the hope for peace who was ready to go for far-reaching concessions; while on the Palestinian side, it had been Yasser Arafat who was perceived as the only leader capable of bringing the Palestinians to the historic compromise.

The first decade also opened under the sign of the terrorist attack on the twin towers — an attack which symbolized the end of the age of fear amidst terror groups and burned in the consciousness of the West that terrorist organizations are not restraining themselves anymore.

The first decade had for its emblem the reign of George Bush as the U.S. President, a president who had begun with a certain hostility toward Israel — and ended up as the best friend we ever had in the White House.

I can remember a wire I issued to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs right after Bush’s election — when serving as the head of the Israeli mission in Qatar — where I pointed out that Bush and Cheney were bad news for Israel. I had detailed the scope of the deals Cheney procured from the Gulf countries as president of an oil company — $9 million — and firmly asserted that the election of Bush and Cheney was good for the Arab countries and tough for Israel.

I was wrong. My estimate was based on logic — but logic and reality are very different. The terrorist attack on the World Trade Center had petrified the U.S. Every day passing by brought over disclosures regarding Arab countries closing their eyes to terror activity. Finally the West had realized what Israel was explaining for years. Israel had won a place in the gallery of honor of those exclaiming “We told you!” — while letting the U.S. wage its war. These were the days of the Messiah. In the Bush period, America demanded that its allies in the Arab world march toward democracy. The first decade was a decade when America actively operated in the world and threw every ounce of motivation, willingness and money into the war against the enemies of the West and of freedom. At the end of the day, America got tired of Bush’s crusade, got tired of trying to convert the Muslim world and got tired of supporting Israel as well. This was indeed a decade when the chieftains of Israel enjoyed tremendous support in Washington, but it steadily waned with the administration shift in the U.S. and Obama’s rise to power. As the end of this decade approached, there was also established the understanding among Arab countries that America had grown weak. She grew weak economically and militarily — and especially, she bared the limits of her abilities to bring about results in Afghanistan and Iraq. Today, America is tired. She wants to deal with her domestic stuff and be more accepted among those who hate her.

Not Afraid

This weakness is what has driven Arabic countries to stop lining up with Washington standpoints, while small and cheeky countries like Qatar do whatever they feel like, such as supporting Hamas, warming up relations with Iran and giving Al-Jazeera the opportunity to inflame anti-American sentiment.

This understanding has also moved the Palestinian Authority, leaning on American assistance, to set off for a diplomatic campaign for the recognition of the Palestinian state — when explaining that America is too weak to impose order on Israel and to make the unilateral proclamation of the Palestinian state into a “natural” move.

The second decade is going to be a decade when it’s no longer certain that the U.S. will be a part of every solution in the Middle East — and definitely not in regard to the Iranian issue.

The leaks in WikiLeaks, which exposed the distress of the Arab countries in the face of the Iranian nuclear program and the U.S. reluctance to act, are promising that in the coming decade the U.S. will work to avoid military action in Iran. The U.S. is living in peace with the nuclear bombs in Pakistan, Russia, China and India; a bomb in Iran’s hands does not constitute an existential problem for her.

The second decade is also going to be a decade when we will have to cease wasting time on declarations apropos the international responsibility of the West for the Iranian problem and will need to carry out practical steps toward Iran on our own.

To Be a Head and Not a Tail

The second decade must be the decade when Israel starts speaking Arabic. It doesn’t mean that Israel will be assimilated in the Middle East or join the Arab League as a part of the pretentious vision of Shimon Peres in the ‘90s, but we should start speaking Arabic in order to become effective in the Middle East game.

Arab-speaking Israel will be more understood in the Middle East. This way, we’ll be able to better protect our interests and finally reach the results, without being detained in the early stages.

The second decade also sets before us the necessity of acting independently in the international arena, rather than relying on American veto and support of the Togo islands, because the American veto is no longer promised at any price. Obama is Obama. His concept is clear and his policy is crystal clear, and he’s much less obliged and much more critical toward Israel.

The second decade urges us to shape international policy grounded on universal values and not only on explaining our position on the predicament of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This is going to be a decade of ecology, of health improvement and of scientific development — and in all these areas, Israel has things to say and to contribute. There are dozens of other subjects Israel could pilot in the U.N. — and in this fashion, put up a struggle against those campaigning to delegitimize us.

The second decade is going to be a decade when Arab countries feel the sense of power bottled up in their joint activity, in parallel to the weakness of the U.S., and take the utmost advantage of it. The era of America’s criticism toward Arab countries in Bush’s time was replaced by the attempt to build an equality framework of relations, embodied in Obama’s speech in Cairo.

And another matter: the economy. The coming decade, with the discoveries of colossal gas resources, has to be a decade of renewal and regaining strength, not of fixation and indolence. It’s enough to take a look eastward to understand what happens to countries enjoying a steady income from effortless energy — in order to get the picture that there is a greater danger than potential here. The gas should enable us to bequeath to the next generation an economy free from national debt and a country with cleaner air.

To recap, the second decade of the 21st century must become an active decade from Israel’s vantage point, a decade when Israel is initiating, acting and creating a regional and international agenda — and not merely reacting. It must be a modest decade when, instead of taking it upon ourselves building a new Middle East, we learn to manage ourselves smartly and arrive at achievements in the existing Middle East, because it is right here, and it is real, and we can be on a team there — and even be the winners.

The author is the Chairman of the “Smart Middle East Forum.” In the past, he served as Consul of Israel and the Head of the Israeli Mission in Qatar.