Obama and the Future

Barack Obama has demonstrated with his State of the Union Address that he’s learned the same lesson as Bill Clinton, the Democratic president who had to adapt to a political situation characterized by Republican control of both houses of Congress. It’s not that Obama has renounced the reforms that led him quickly to the White House. He intends to occupy the political center, as Clinton did.

Obama’s popularity has increased since giving his outstanding speech after the Tucson shooting. The Republicans, especially their extreme right wing, the tea party, haven’t given up the idea of making the second half of Obama’s term impossible. But Obama still has his resources. And it’s not just that the Democrats still control the Senate; they can reject the counter-reforms that provoke the House of Representatives, controlled by the Republicans. The point is that Obama seems to have regained the political initiative and is prepared to be president for two terms.

In his speech, Obama was most clear when he proposed the biggest goals for the immediate future and when he tried to explain how to achieve them. In foreign policy, and only a week after Chinese President Hu Jintao’s official visit to Washington, Obama brought up the challenge that the United States, the only superpower, faces with the rise of new powers. After having admitted before Hu Jintao that China’s rise in power is inevitable, Obama stated the matter in his speech unequivocally. Not only that, he drew upon the rivalry with the Soviet Union during the Cold War. This doesn’t mean that a confrontation with China is inevitable, but what is fundamental is that America strives to maintain its global leadership. “This is our generation’s Sputnik moment,” said the president to describe the danger of another nation surpassing the United States in the 21st century. The Soviet launch of Sputnik in 1957 was Moscow’s demonstration of power, prompting Washington to begin the Space Race, which resulted in the arrival of the first man on the moon.

With the reference to Sputnik, Obama appealed to the resilience of American society to focus on two fundamental elements in internal politics: unemployment and public spending. Obama, in this context, chose a middle path: to maintain public investment in some essential programs, such as training, education and health, but at the same time promising to reduce the public deficit. Republicans deem this squaring of the circle insufficient because it aims to return to the level of public spending of 2008, George W. Bush’s last year of presidency.

Obama isn’t going to have it easy from now to the 2012 presidential election. His differences with the Republicans are considerable, and the climate of tension doesn’t help. That’s why the president’s cries for understanding and bipartisan work aim to place him in the center of the political spectrum, which is precisely where the outcome of the presidential elections is decided.