How Many Years Will the Sino-U.S. Joint Statement Be Effective?

It has been many days since Chinese President Hu Jintao’s visit to the U.S., but the China-U.S. summit is still making waves, and continues to receive global attention and public opinion analysis.

The 1972 visit to China by Nixon marked a historic breakthrough in Sino-U.S. relations when enemies became friends. In 1979, Deng Xiaoping visited America with the intention of uniting with the U.S. against the USSR and seeking good economic fortune from the U.S. However, this year’s China-U.S. summit is like two peaks towering above the surrounding hills; it shows that the world’s two most powerful countries are equally determined to implement strong cooperation within global confines.

Summit Covered the Development of the World’s Situation

Hu and Obama’s White House summit showed the world the new attitude and stage of Sino-U.S. relations. The Sino-U.S. joint statement established specifications and blueprints for all-round cooperation between the two countries. This joint statement also shows both countries’ common concern over the development of global peace. Obama appreciates China’s peaceful rise, and Hu Jintao welcomes the U.S. to participate in Asia-Pacific affairs. This mutual commitment and the innovative spirit of mutual understanding cannot help but remind one of the ancient Chinese wisdom of Confucius: “harmony but not uniformity” and “wishing to be enriched himself, he seeks also to enrich others.”

Looking for a superpower summit attended by two antagonistic countries with different social systems in the second half of the 20th century, only the 1959 Camp David Conference between American President Eisenhower and Soviet Premier Khrushchev is comparable to the Hu and Obama meeting. However, during that year, the meeting of these two superpowers was limited to stopping global nuclear war and implementing a peaceful coexistence. Soviet-American relations were purely political and not economic. There was only mutual restraint, but there lacked mutual need; the meeting did not involve discussion of global development issues. However, this time, the Sino-U.S. summit meeting’s topic not only focused on promoting mutually beneficial cooperation, but also covered international relations and global development. It was truly a world summit meeting. If China and America work together, then there will be global security; however, if China and America fight, then there will be a global crisis. For reasons previously mentioned, the Hu and Obama summit has received the world’s attention.

Of course, regardless of how China and America stress cooperation and taking care of each other’s interests, it cannot change the fact that this is the essence of the relationship between an existing superpower and a rising superpower. This relationship is characterized by bilateral competitiveness and interests being at odds with each other, which is why there is a need to establish some coordination mechanisms and mutual prosperity. From this viewpoint, this China and U.S. summit’s great significance and influential importance must be fully recognized.

A Joint Statement Cannot Possibly Eliminate Bilateral Contradictions

However, while the world’s praises slowly diminish, people will inevitably ask: Can China and America’s greatest desires eliminate the contradictions that exist between them? Can that joint statement dictate changes in Sino-U.S. relations for the next 30 years? Perhaps the answer is that there are fewer believers and more doubters. I have heard that in some private American discussions, they believe that this joint statement’s control will last less than a year. A new arms sale between the U.S. and Taiwan is approaching, which will inevitably lead to some disputes.

In the joint statement, China has stressed that the Taiwan issue “concerns China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,” and the U.S. has expressed that it “follows its One China policy and abides by the principles of the three U.S.-China joint communiqués.” However, China is opposed to the arms sale and the U.S. has not committed to stopping the arms sales, thus their differences remains the same. Last year the news of the huge arms sale caused China to be angry and flagrantly canceled the U.S. Defense Secretary’s visit to China. Although the visit eventually took place, the issue of the arms sale to Taiwan is still a major obstacle to Sino-U..S. relations. Unless America repeals its Taiwan Relations Act or China and Taiwan are reunified, this dispute will never be eliminated.

Linked with the arms sale and the Taiwan issue are China’s territorial issues in the South China Sea. This problem’s importance is not only about China’s sovereignty, but also about the issues of strategic interest and strategic channels that lurk in the background. Because, in the long run, to be a global superpower, China’s national interests will inevitably extend outwards, stretching across the ocean. To gain strategic resources and strategic channels, China will need to reclaim islands in the South China Sea, and establish military footholds and raw materials supply bases. Although both sides argue that, through peaceful discussions, they can coordinate their differences, they will be unwilling to part with the cards in their hands without a struggle. To contain China’s long term goals, the U.S. and China will invariably disagree on territorial issues in the South China Sea; thus there will be no basis for cooperation.

Look at the situation on the Korean Peninsula. Due to the extremely unstable domestic situation, North Korea may take up risky war actions against outsiders. North Korea has already become a threat to the peninsula, and a source of threat to the peace and safety of the entire East Asia region. Points of common interest for China and the U.S. are in their deterrence of the North Korean threat and maintaining safety on the Korean peninsula. However, if there is a coup in North Korea that threatens the Kim dynasty’s totalitarian dictatorship, it could cause the Korean War to restart. China must either face sending troops to support North Korea or abandon them. If China abandons the North then South Korea will possibly invade the North. Either choice makes it difficult for China to completely avoid coming into conflict with the U.S.

From the perspective of one country or its bilateral relations, 30 years is a very long historical period. Think back 30 years, when uniting with the U.S. against the U.S.S.R. was necessary; from Nixon’s ground breaking trip to Reagan’s honeymoon period, it can be said that Sino-U.S. relations were smooth. However, in 1989, the Tiananmen Square incident came like a hurricane, causing bilateral relations to regress to the pre-Cold War era. The slogan of “Sino-U.S. friendship” became “American imperialism may kill me but not my spirit.” Jiang Zemin then turned to Moscow to renew the old dream of the “unbreakable friendship.”

Secret Worries of Sino-U.S. Relations

Looking forward 30 years, China will undoubtedly engage in grandiose plans, which will not only change China itself, but will also change the world. China’s GDP will overtake America’s and will take over the world’s top spot. China will establish two fleets in the East China Sea and South China Sea that will travel across the high seas. The footprints of the Chinese people will be all over the world, along with Chinese products. China’s technological innovations will climb and their nationalist patriotism will grow. Beijing will become the world’s mecca and will attract countless numbers of people.

Any action is based on strength. In those circumstances, China will most likely use strength to adjust the content of the joint statement. Because China and Taiwan are reunified, arms sales to Taiwan and the “One China” policy dispute will no longer exist. The territorial disputes in the South China Sea and East China Sea will not be mentioned any longer, and are expected to be returned to China. The content of the Sino-U.S. Joint Statement will also become history.

Moreover, from an internal point of view, not only is China’s economy rapidly growing and its national power experiencing an unprecedented expansion, China is constantly changing, the quality of life is improving and its prosperity is impressive. However, due to the vast population, a weak foundation, numerous problems, varying public opinions, increases in both rural and urban unemployment, economic disparities, the prevalence of corruption and a weak legal system will lead to increases in social unrest. If these phenomena are not stopped, conditions will only deteriorate further and the chance of another Tiananmen Square type situation once again occurring in China cannot be eliminated completely.

If that situation arises again, U.S. authorities will definitely once again raise up the banner of freedom, democracy and human rights. America will pressure China and use the current situation to weaken China’s strength in order to facilitate the U.S. containment of China’s rise.

According to the reasons and assumptions above, on the one hand, people hope to see that Sino-U.S. relations truly achieve the picture described in the joint statement in the future. At the same time, the gap between aspiration and reality cannot be ignored, and we need to maintain a clear attitude to evaluate the future development of Sino-U.S. relations.