A Multipolar World

Until very recently, complaints were prevalent that the world was unipolar and that the United States was without precedent, a new Rome.

It was always obvious, at least to this columnist, that it was a temporary situation. It was the result of the collapse of the Soviet Empire, whose strength was military power, but which had feeble economic and political foundations. Those foundations gave way, and the empire collapsed; only one superpower remained.

The excessive power of one country immediately leads to a regrouping of alliances. In view of the Soviet Union’s fainting fit, other nations did not find themselves in need of maintaining such close ties with the United States.

On the other hand, maintaining oneself as a military superpower has its costs. The United States appropriates huge fiscal revenues to its armed forces that otherwise would be used to improve infrastructure.

With time, the best governed countries learn to develop. Today, China, India and Brazil, following different paths, are in the process of taking advantage of the combination of low costs and greater technological sophistication to grow with vertiginous speed.

Two crises accelerated the process of reducing the United States’ hegemony.

First, the financial and economic crisis showed the shortcomings of the United States’ economic organization. Exit from the crisis will happen through the increase of savings and the reduction in consumption on the part of Americans. As a result, the difference between the U.S. market and the rest will be less apparent.

The other crisis is President Bush’s adventures in the Middle East. Iraq in particular is very costly and will not bring about any benefit to the United States other than having deposed a particularly bloody dictator. The limits of military power and the economic cost of the war have become evident.

In the first half of the present century, it can be expected that the United States will continue to be the first world power, but that power will be shared with other countries. A few decades ago, the United States, Japan, Great Britain, Germany and France used to gather and arrange the world. Today, the G-20 is the most prominent organization.

Sooner or later, the Chinese renminbi will become a reserve currency, and if the European Union overcomes its crisis, the euro will, too. Sarkozy says that the Euro will grow stronger, because European peace requires it. Many members resist, but it has become necessary for the E.U.’s weaker countries to reform their economies in order to bring them closer to German standards.

In South America, Washington has reduced its presence, in part because of its lessened global reach, but more because our region is both one of the least conflicted politically, compared with the Middle East, and is one of the least dynamic economically, compared to East Asia.

For our country, this should induce us to make an effort to expand our commercial relations with other countries interested in increasing their investments in Ecuador. Looking for new markets is not an easy task.

And at the same time, we should normalize relations with Washington. We cannot expect as much help as before, nor can we blame Washington for everything that we do poorly, as Chavez prefers to do.