And Yet, Obama’s Going to a Lot of Trouble!

The latest Gallup poll has just put Obama and the still unknown Republican candidate tied back-to-back for the 2012 presidential election. With 45 percent of the anticipated votes going to each side, America is measuring the weight of its two major parties and their head-on battle. Is the 44th president a little disappointed? Surely, as his approval rate had picked up again: 50 percent at the State of the Union address on Jan. 25. So why is it slipping?

We’ll start with the obvious: Neither Michelle’s white dress nor the 44th’s speech have changed the numbers. In the three days before and after Jan. 25, Gallup measured the approval rate at 50 percent. This showbiz speech did not produce the characteristic shock wave for the prez. But we can also see that this speech may have acted as a tier after the huge emotion of the tragedy in Tucson, with good ratings for the president and his speech in Arizona. As they say in the stock market, Tucson was highly profitable.

So Obama is on a favorable-trend landing. Midterm elections have been accepted, and the winning Republicans are rather trapped in a situation that they themselves must confront:

– The House is Republican, but the Senate has remained Democratic. They’ve come to realize that it’s not easy to undo the beginning of Obama’s term. The House rejected the health care reform. The rejection was immediately sent back to the Senate and threatened by the presidential veto. Negotiations are in sight, as was the case for the compromise between tax cuts for the rich in exchange for an extension of social benefits for the unemployed.

– Simultaneously, the Republican Speaker of the House, John Boehner, is facing an unexpected situation. His 80 newly elected members were, for the most part, brought in on the wave of systematic protest, austerity at any cost and the rejection of Obama’s health care law: the tea party philosophy. But after the November elections, a CNN poll showed a true stall and some changes of opinion: Americans were tired of rigorous routine, wanted to live well and were not too bothered by health care reform in their daily lives. How will Boehner reorganize this struggle while balancing public opinion and his elected officials?

– The big budget battle is underway, scripted by each camp, but with no overwhelming victor in sight. The ball is in the center of the court, and the negotiations are bipartisan. Even if one gets around the government blockage, a shut down, the Republicans undoubtedly have bad memories from the Clinton era.

So what can Obama do to regain leadership and give the Democrats an advantage? Be seen as someone who does anything and everything to make it work — be the CEO of a booming America. In the Gallup poll, 51 percent of young people between the ages of 18 and 34 would champion Obama. This is markedly disengaged compared to other categories of the survey (35- to 44-year-olds responded at 44 percent). If they voted less in November, they will return for the presidential election and will be sensitive to the president’s economic dimension and to what he can breathe into their development. It is an America with jobs that are reducing the unemployment rate (9.4 percent in January) and an investment budget that will mobilize around a booming president and not get stuck in a self-preserving Washington. And also generational signals such as the president’s interest in the West, the power of the Internet and creating jobs. The symbolic, before or after the budget vote, will get back to work.