Chinese Domestic Demand and the Purchasing of U.S. Treasury Bonds

Published in Xin Hua
(China) on 7 March 2011
by Duan Hongbin (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by John Phillips. Edited by Mark DeLucas.
How is domestic demand supposed to expand while we are spending money on buying U.S. Treasury bonds?

The U.S. Department of Treasury’s recent report on the revision of international capital flow showed that China’s ownership of U.S. Treasury bonds increased 30 percent to $1.16 trillion, further securing its position as America’s largest creditor. In addition, the report indicated that from June 2010 to December 2010, China’s ownership of U.S. Treasury bonds never fell below $1.1 trillion. These figures show U.S. Treasury bonds are still China’s number one choice for the investment of their foreign exchange reserves.

As for now, the American Federal Reserve holds $1.1 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds; by mid-year, before the second round of quantitative easing ends, the American Federal Reserve will hold more U.S. debt than China and Japan combined. The Federal Reserve is basically acting as America’s central bank; where is this money coming from? Does it not come from the printing of money by the Federal Reserve? Since the financial crisis, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has expanded rapidly. The Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke, has been given the nickname of “Helicopter Ben” because of the way he has made “airdrops” of money into the American market.

America is printing money madly, and what about China? Lately, the entire country has been discussing the central bank and how it is creating inflation by the superfluous printing of money. Experts blame the over printing of money for the recent rise in China’s food prices. But there is a hole in this explanation. Food prices are rising for the entire world. Could it be that the printing of Chinese money has caused the entire world’s food prices to increase? That would suggest that the Chinese Yuan is the global currency. After careful research we found that this is not the case.

How much of China’s debt do you think the People’s Bank of China has bought? This may be hard for the Chinese to hear, but the answer is none. Why is it like this? The laws of the People’s Bank of China prohibit it from over-drafting from the treasury. They also do not allow the direct purchase or sale of national debt or any other government debt. They forbid the loaning of money to local governments and all levels of governmental departments; furthermore, they prohibit loaning money to non-financial institutions and other organizations and individuals.

The reason for these rules is very simple; lawmakers want to prevent the Central Bank from printing money for the government to spend. These politicians who have studied Western economics abroad believe that the irresponsible printing of money by the Central Bank is the basic reason for inflation. This is clearly written in the Western economic textbooks. But, if America is the epitome of Western economics, then why does it neglect this principle? And not only does America neglect it, why does it print money without any constraint at all?

China has pushed hard to increase domestic demand for many years; domestic demand, however, has never truly expanded, and the reason is extremely simple: The common Chinese person has very little money in their hands. How are they supposed to expand domestic demand? The raising of the money supply in China mainly depends on exports. The cash that businesses receive for their exports is first taxed by the government; then, a part is given to suppliers; then, it is used to expand the production scale of the business; next, it is given to the owner so he can buy a house and a car; finally, after most of it has been taken, a little money is given to the workers as salary.

Why do businesses want to export products to America? It is because America’s ability to consume is the greatest in the world. Actually, most of the money that Americans use to consume is borrowed; even the American government is living beyond its means. The Chinese government, due to the fact that the Chinese people cannot afford to spend money, are picking up U.S. dollars and using them to loan money back to Americans so they can spend it. If this pattern does not end, it will be very difficult for the Chinese to expand their domestic demand.


端宏斌:花钱买美国国债,内需怎么能扩大?

  美国财政部最新发布的国际资本流动修正报告显示,中国所持有美国国债规模被向上修订30%至1.16万亿美元,继续稳居美国国债全球最大单一持有国地位。而在报告进行修正的2010年6至12月的数据中,中国持有美国债规模始终保持在1.1万亿美元以上。数据显示,美国国债仍是中国巨额外汇储备的投资首选。

  目前,美联储持有的美国国债规模已达1.1万亿美元,由于第二轮量化宽松还没有结束,等到今年年中,美联储所持有美国国债的规模将超过中日两国的总和。美联储相当于美国的央行,他的钱哪里来的?还不是自己印出来的么。自从金融危机以来,美联储的资产负债表急剧扩大,美联储主席伯南克人送外号“直升飞机”。因为他有意用“空投”的方式向市场提供美元。

  美国狂印钞票,那么中国呢?最近一段时间以来,全国各大媒体都在讨论一个话题“央行货币超发货币导致通胀”。这些专家们将中国最近的食品价格上涨归结为钞票印多了,但这个解释有个漏洞。全世界的粮价都在上涨,难道中国钞票印多了就会导致全球粮食涨价?貌似人民币还不是全球性货币吧。深入研究之后我们发现,事情的真相竟然同我们想象的正相反。

  你认为中国人民银行持有多少中国国债呢?说出来吓你一跳,因为这个数字是零。为什么会这样?答案是,《中国人民银行法》规定:中国人民银行不得对政府财政透支,不得直接认购、包销国债和其他政府债券。不得向地方政府、各级政府部门提供贷款,不得向非银行金融机构以及其他单位和个人提供贷款……

  这一规定的理由很简单,立法者要防止央行印钞票给政府花。因为那些喝过西方经济学洋墨水的精英们认为,央行乱印钞是导致通胀的根本原因,这句话在教科书上明明白白地写着。可是,既然美国是西方经济学的大本营,那为什么美国人却不遵守这条规则,不仅不遵守,反而大肆印钞呢?

  中国高喊推动内需已很多年了,但是内需总是无法真正扩大,原因简单得很,老百姓手里缺钱,拿什么去扩大内需呢?中国增加货币供应量主要是依靠出口,企业出口换回来的人民币,首先要缴税给政府,然后是把钱付给上游的供应商,再是扩大生产规模,再是老板自己拿来买房买车,最后才轮到工人发工资。

  企业为什么要将商品出口到美国?因为美国人的消费能力世界第一。但事实上美国人拿来消费的钱都是借来的,连美国政府自己都已寅吃卯粮。中国人拿到了美元,由于花不掉就重新购买美国国债借给美国人去消费。这一格局不打破,中国扩大内需的难度较大。

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