Wanted: A Strong Republican

Four years ago, the Republican team had already been decided for the presidential primary election. We knew who the contenders for the White House would be in November. Over a half dozen Republicans had taken their starting positions.

This time, it’s completely different. Obama will run for a second term and has already set up his election headquarters in Chicago. But his challenger is still under wraps. A few possibilities are already prancing around backstage, but none dares take that decisive step in front of the curtain. None of them has yet declared his or her candidacy.

Whoever travels across America gets the impression that the Republicans are desperately looking for a candidate somewhere. But the candidates are hesitant about seeking out the people. That hesitation is well founded: Obama is a very formidable candidate. He is still very popular with the people, and after the impressive Republican electoral victories in 2010, the political balance of power has shifted. Moreover, Obama is an impressive campaigner and that frightens many of them.

But the main reason for the Republican game of hide-and-seek is this: There’s no clear favorite. There is no one toward whom conservative and moderate voters can flock. No one of whom the voters can say, “You’re the one!” Those who perhaps have the right stuff, like New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, have already declined, preferring to wait until 2016 when Obama won’t be running.

What’s left is the second-string — candidates with perhaps high entertainment value, but with many weaknesses — such as Mitt Romney, who will probably run. He already tried four years ago, but it didn’t pan out.

Romney is a successful businessman but has two, perhaps even three serious disadvantages. As governor of the state of Massachusetts, he was successful in enacting health care reform that eventually became the blueprint for Obama’s reforms. That so-called “Obamacare” has become anathema to conservatives. Romney would have to overcome that issue before Republicans would put him up as their candidate.

Right now, he’s acting as if his law is nothing like Obamacare, and that brings up his second major problem: his lack of credibility and authenticity. Always beaming, but slippery as an eel and just as hard to pin down. Many people, even some in his own party, compare him to Barbie’s partner, the Ken doll. And his third handicap: Romney is a Mormon, a major drawback for many conservative Christian voters.

Another probable candidate is Minnesota’s ex-governor, Tim Pawlenty. In his predominantly Democratic state, Pawlenty practiced balanced and moderate politics for eight years. These days, however, he courts the votes of the far right and behaves like a standard bearer for the tea party. His constant mantra is, “I’m not one who questions the existence of the president’s birth certificate. But when you listen to his policies, don’t you at least wonder what planet he’s from?” Even Pawlenty’s friends are shaking their heads.

Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels would make a respectable candidate. He succeeded, after all, in pulling his state out of a deep financial mess. But nobody knows who he is, he’s a poor speaker and he has all the charisma of a club treasurer. Daniels is still struggling to reach a decision about running.

Newt Gingrich is also likely to be on board as a candidate. Many Americans know him from his tenure as speaker of the House of Representatives 15 years ago and recall him as Bill Clinton’s rough-and-ready opponent. But Gingrich is a polarizing figure, something middle America is likely to shun. Besides that, he has been married three times and is a convert to Roman Catholicism, something that really shouldn’t matter, but conservative Christians, who have a strong voice in primary elections, aren’t exactly happy with him because of it.

That leaves two ex-governors who might run: Mike Huckabee, preacher, ex-governor of Arkansas and failed Republican primary presidential candidate in 2008. And finally there’s Sarah Palin, icon of the tea party movement, ex-governor of Alaska and failed vice-presidential candidate in the 2008 national election.

Huckabee is currently on tour promoting his latest book. He earns a big salary appearing on Fox News, is building a luxury villa in Florida and hasn’t made any apparent preparations for a run. Even if he hasn’t officially declined to run yet, he doesn’t seem to have much gusto for the rigors of a campaign battle.

So that leaves Sarah Palin. Everybody is waiting for a signal from her. If she enters the fray, she would get a lot of attention, at least in the early rounds. No one could generate as much enthusiasm as she could, but neither would anyone generate as much opposition. She’s also a polarizing figure, even among Republicans.

Because of her unusually high negatives, she would have to think twice about a possible candidacy. She would also have to give up her lucrative job with Fox News, who has already invested in an Alaskan TV studio for her use. In addition, in her current role she is a powerful puppet master in the Republican Party. Whoever wanted to run for anything would tangle with Sarah Palin’s strings and no one would want to risk offending her or her followers.

At present, there aren’t really any strong Republican candidates for president. Maybe their power and charisma will increase over time.