The Triumph of Barack Hussein Obama II

America wakes up almost stunned by the elation of the victory. The news of Osama bin Laden’s capture has been anticipated for about 10 years; at the same time, had become almost improbable, after many false hopes. Finally, it had become almost a marginal aim, after two wars and the revolutions in the Arab world. It is a triumph for Barack Obama, the black president who bears the middle name Hussein; he is that “illegal alien” whose American nationality is questioned by 45 percent of Republicans, with 20 percent of those Republicans still believing that he is Muslim. It is this man who will go down in history for the elimination of the historic enemy of America.

What about the consequences on the fight against terrorism? The same Obama administration calls for caution: It wants to avoid triumphalism and argues that al-Qaida has become a sort of “franchise” or trademark that is applied in very different realities. It is a decentralized organizational reality, the structure of which has ramifications in areas of the world far from Osama’s latest Pakistani headquarters. For example, in the Arabian Peninsula, Yemen was destabilized by protests against its president. The news of the killing of the historic leader might be enough to inspire some angry reaction, such as the revenge of peripheral cells — hence the warning for airports and embassies launched today from Washington.

Starting today, for Obama it is — at least in theory — easier to keep his promise that 2011 will be the starting year of the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan. Indeed, bin Laden’s killing symbolically “breaks” that identification between the war in Afghanistan and the hunt for the terrorist leader who ordered the 9/11 attacks on the Twin Towers and the Pentagon. But in fact, it has long been known that the Taliban are different from al-Qaida, and their return to Afghanistan after American withdrawal would still be a strategic threat to Washington’s interests in that area.

Pakistan is confirmed to be the real problem. There lived the “hidden” Osama, exactly as Americans have always suspected. He lived in impunity in the territory of a country considered an ally of the United States that, in reality, was an unreliable partner. It is the same Pakistan that continues to threaten India and that “flirts” more and more brazenly with China.

Osama bin Laden, however, seems to be the protagonist of an earlier era. He was marginalized from what has been happening from the beginning of this year. Tunisia, Egypt, then Libya, Syria, Morocco, Bahrain: al-Qaida had no role in any of these popular revolutions. At least until now, anti-Americanism has not emerged yet as an important component of the revolts from below, not even when they toppled regimes such as Mubarak’s, which America supported. This was not by chance. In this sense, Obama began to prepare “his” victory in July 2009, with that speech at Cairo University, which announced a new season of dialogue with the Muslim world.

What about impact on U.S. domestic politics? There is no doubt that from yesterday evening’s speech, the line “justice has been done” will be revived in advertisement spots for Obama’s electoral campaign. Bin Laden’s murder adds points to Obama’s score. Nevertheless, elections are still far (November 2012), and by then, the memory of this historic event will have faded and voters will return to arguing mainly about domestic issues: jobs, inflation.

Furthermore, would it have been better to capture him alive and process him? This objection is advanced from the left, in the most intransigent branch of American pacifism. But Osama alive would have become a terrible catalyst for all his disciples worldwide, even isolated fools, and the risk of suicide operations to free him would have been very high.

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