With bin Laden’s End, a New Opportunity Emerges for the World

Published in China Times
(Taiwan) on 3 May 2011
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Lisa Ferguson. Edited by Jessica Boesl.
On May 1, the U.S. announced that al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden had already been shot dead by American Special Forces in a suburb of Pakistan’s capital. As the news was released, people in U.S. streets were elated, and former President Bush proclaimed that justice had been done.

For his crimes, bin Laden deserved death, yet his death certainly does not mean the problem is over. On the contrary, it could open up Pandora’s box. However, this also means that if U.S. policy can make a fresh start, perhaps it can take advantage of this opportunity to resolve the religious conflict and initiate improved relations.

In the past, al-Qaida’s leader bin Laden had a strict organizational structure for everything from money to weapons and training. After U.N. troops invaded Afghanistan and al-Qaida’s organization was fragmented, bin Laden was transformed into an ideological leader. From time to time, he issued anti-American speeches over the Internet, enthusiastically promoting the continuation of the Holy War.

Eliminating bin Laden certainly cannot put an end to all anti-American organizations, but instead broke them up into numerous cells, creating divisions inside each country, each waiting for orders to launch a retaliatory attack. Also for this reason, countries across Europe and America have successively raised their alerts to the highest levels, warning expats to stay away from crowded places and to fly or take trains at their own risk. There is also a rumor that al-Qaida holds a certain number of nuclear weapons in Europe, and that it is just waiting for an opportunity to detonate them.

In the short run, bin Laden’s death caused the crisis to worsen, but whether it will radicalize present Islamic organizations in the long run has yet to be seen. Frankly speaking, the storm of revolutions in North Africa did not at all originate from al-Qaida, but instead from the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafi extremist organizations, gradually becoming the mobilizing backbone of the masses. Although their objective is comparatively mild, al-Qaida is presently waiting to forcibly take leadership. This is the new challenge the Western world faces — a wave of extremism without bin Laden.

Naturally, U.S. authorities worry about the after-effects of bin Laden’s death. After DNA testing was done on his remains, in compliance with Muslim ceremony, he was buried at sea within 24 hours. The aim of this was to prevent him from becoming the new martyr of the jihad and heartening his followers to visit his grave in flocks.

It can also be said that, not only was bin Laden’s death not necessarily negative, but that it could even open up a new opportunity to let the Muslim and Christian worlds have a chance to resolve their hatred, to join hands and cooperate, and U.S. President Obama could play a crucial role in the peace process.

In the middle of Obama’s name is a typical Islamic name (Barack Hussein Obama) and in Indonesia, he received Islamic education. While in the U.S. this led him to suffer to the fullest attacks that he “is not an American,” but it also earned him the respect of the Islamic world. Twice he spoke in Cairo and Istanbul, causing people to believe that he truly understands and sympathizes with the Muslim world.

Of course, when he took office, Obama inherited two post-9/11 anti-terrorism and anti-Islam wars. But now, through bin Laden’s death, he can take advantage of this opportunity to end these two wars. We think that Obama should start to consider peace talks with the Taliban and isolate al-Qaida, and, after the situation calms down, withdraw troops from Iraq and Afghanistan, thus ending this arduous and thankless war on terrorism.

After all, al-Qaida’s objective is terrorist violence, and the Taliban is different. It is a regional armed religious group in the countryside of Afghanistan, which has political appeal. At the time of 9/11, al-Qaida was thriving under the protection of the Taliban, and when allied forces invaded Afghanistan, they simultaneously declared war on both.

But the U.S. military is very clear that military force alone cannot eliminate the Taliban. Afghan President Hamid Karzai started to be in secret contact with the Taliban while the U.S. turned a blind eye. Now that bin Laden has died, although al-Qaida is still the target, if Obama can change strategies and rope in the Taliban using political talks to resolve the Afghanistan problem and give up its hunt for Taliban leader Mohammed Omar, while also gradually withdrawing troops from Afghanistan and Iraq, this would be an unprecedented new policy of reconciliation.

The precedent has already been proven in Iraq that the truly effective tactic is not powerful suppression, but instead to bring together different factions for reconciliation and dialogue. One strong military alone is not the secret to success in Iraq, nor will it be so in Afghanistan.

However, if the U.S. pushes for a policy of reconciliation, it must still be undertaken with caution. Otherwise, not only will it face destruction by al-Qaida’s terrorist organization from the sidelines, but Pakistan could even hinder its efforts from within. Even if Pakistan is an ally of the U.S. in the fight against terrorism in name, in reality the U.S. did not even inform Pakistan before it came in to shoot bin Laden.

Obama is now at a pivotal point in history. He could very well claim victory against terrorism and use this as an opportunity to turn over a new leaf by launching a new undertaking for peace. This not only could leave him with an immortal achievement, but more realistically, if U.S. troops can begin to return home, come late next year it will certainly be a big help as Obama seeks to serve another term in office.


社論-終結賓拉登 世局出現新契機

* 2011-05-03
* 中國時報
* 【本報訊】

 美國一日宣布基地恐怖組織領導人賓拉登,已經在巴基斯坦首都近郊,被特種部隊擊斃,消息傳出,美國街頭群眾歡欣鼓舞,前總統布希更聲稱,正義得以伸張。

 賓拉登的死是罪有應得,但是他的死,並不代表問題的結束,反而可能揭開了一盆毒蛇的蓋子;然而這也意味著,美國政策如果改弦更張,或許可趁機消解宗教世仇,開創新局。

 過去基地恐怖組織的領導人是賓拉登,無論是金錢、武器與訓練,都有嚴格的由上至下的組織體系,聯軍打入阿富汗後,基地組織被打散,賓拉登轉型變成意識形態的領袖,三不五時在網路上發表反美言論,鼓吹繼續聖戰。

 除掉賓拉登,並不能夠消滅反對美國的組織,反而把它們打散,一個細胞與一個細胞,在各國滋生分裂,不待號令發動報復攻擊。也就是因為如此,歐美各國紛紛把警戒層次提升到最高,警告僑民躲開人多的地方,搭乘飛機、火車,風險自負,更有傳言,基地組織在歐洲持有若干核彈,伺機引爆。

 賓拉登的死,短時間造成危機升高,但長期是否會激化目前的伊斯蘭教組織,也有待觀察。老實說,北非革命風潮,並不是由基地組織發起的,而是穆斯林兄弟會與薩拉非激進組織,逐漸成為群眾動員的骨幹,雖然它們的宗旨較為和緩,但是目前基地組織卻俟機搶奪主導權,這是西方世界面臨的新挑戰─沒有賓拉登的激進浪潮。

 美國當局對賓拉登的死所造成的後續效應,自然很擔心,他的遺體經過DNA驗證後,不到廿四小時,就遵循穆斯林儀式,埋葬在海邊祕密地點,目的就在防止他成為聖戰的新烈士,鼓舞後來者前仆後繼。

 也可以說,賓拉登的死,不盡然都是負面,甚至某種程度說是開創了新契機,讓穆斯林世界與基督教世界,可以有機會消解仇恨、攜手合作,而美國總統歐巴馬,正可以扮演和解過程中的關鍵角色。

 歐巴馬的名字中間,有一個典型的伊斯蘭名(Barack Hussein Obama),以及他在印尼所受的伊斯蘭教育,雖然讓他在美國飽受「不是美國人」的抨擊,但卻得到伊斯蘭世界的尊重,他兩度在開羅與伊斯坦堡發表的演說,也被認為是真正理解與同情穆斯林世界。

 當然他上任時,繼承了在九一一之後的兩場反恐與反伊斯蘭戰爭,但如今,藉著賓拉登之死,他可以趁機結束這兩場戰爭;我們認為,歐巴馬應該開始考慮與塔里班和談,孤立基地組織,並待情況平靜後,自伊拉克與阿富汗撤軍,結束這場吃力不討好的反恐戰爭。

 畢竟,基地組織是以恐怖暴力為宗旨,塔里班則不同,它是地域性的宗教武裝集團,在阿富汗鄉間,具有政治號召力,在九一一時,基地是在塔里班庇護下茁壯,聯軍打阿富汗時,同時對兩者宣戰。

 但美國軍方很清楚,單靠軍事力量是消滅不了塔里班的,阿富汗總統卡札已開始祕密與塔里班接觸,美國則是睜一眼閉一眼,現在賓拉登一死,雖然基地仍然是目標,但如果歐巴馬能夠改變戰略,拉攏塔里班,以政治和談方式解決阿富汗問題,放棄追捕塔里班領導人歐瑪爾,逐步自阿富汗與伊拉克撤軍,這將會是前所未見的新和解政策。

 伊拉克的前例已經證明,真正有效的策略,不是強力鎮壓,而是撮合不同派系和解與對話。單單憑強勢軍力,並不是伊拉克成功祕訣,更不會在阿富汗成功。

 然而美國推動和解政策,還是必須謹慎從事。否則不僅面臨基地恐怖組織從旁破壞,更會有巴基斯坦從中作梗。儘管巴基斯坦名義上是美國反恐戰爭的盟友,但事實上,美國狙擊賓拉登的行動,就沒有事先通報巴基斯坦。

 歐巴馬現在正處於歷史的關鍵點。他大可以宣稱反恐勝利,藉此契機重新翻過歷史新的一頁,啟動新的和平工程。這不僅會讓他留下不朽的功業,而且更實際的是,假如美國部隊能夠開始陸續撤回國,對明年年底他的連任,也將大有幫助。
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