Is the “V-shape” Settlement Aiming to Alleviate Burdens Just Lip-service?

According to Japanese foreign affairs and security cabinet members, the Japanese-U.S. Security Consultative Committee (“Two-Plus-Two”) is expected to convene in June.

At this “Two-Plus-Two” meeting, the issue of the relocation of the U.S. Marine Corps Airbase at Futenma, Okinawa will reach a turning point. This is because the shape, location and method of construction of the replacement facility will be formally determined with the guidance of the U.S. administration.

In order to clarify the significance of the coming meeting, let me review the process so far.

When the Hatoyama administration took power in Sept. 2009, it signed a three-party agreement called the Coalition Cooperation Agreement and undertook the work of reviewing and validating the relocation plan for the airbase to Henoko Bay.

Due to the change in government [as a result of the Social Democratic Party having left the ruling coalition in May, 2010], public opinion on the issue of the airbase in Futenma changed quickly. Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama, prevented by heavy bureaucratic barriers, wasn’t able to fulfill his public election promise of moving the base “outside of the [Okinawa] prefecture at the very least.” From statements such as the apology of Prime Minister Hatoyama to the citizens of Okinawa in May of 2010, the announcement from the Security Consultative Committee, and certain cabinet decisions, it became clear that the idea of moving the base to Henoko Bay had been revived.

After that, experts from the United States and Japan met on Aug. 10t and compared a plan for one runway in the shape of an “I,” which had been proposed by the Japanese experts, with a two-runway plan in the shape of a “V,” which had been proposed by the U.S. experts. Finally, the decision ended up being postponed.

On Jan. 7, 2011, at the end of the Japanese multi-day holiday, Minister of Defense Toshimi Kitazawa met with Okinawa Prefectural Governor Hirokazu Nakaima and briefed him on the details of the meetings held thus far.

It is expected that the Security Consultative Committee will adopt the V-shaped runway plan. Some might say:“It doesn’t matter that much anyhow; it is much ado about nothing.”

But if the Security Consultative Committee were to ignore the local people’s opinion and adopt the V-runway plan, it would become an exceedingly serious problem. Is the Japanese Democratic Party aware of the importance of this issue?

In response to the Liberal Democratic Party’s acceptance of the V-runway proposal, the director general of the Defense Agency, the mayor of Nago and the Ginoza village leader signed a “Basic Agreement.” At the same time, the Defense Agency’s director general and the prefectural governor signed a “Basic Certificate.”

There are many interpretations on how these two documents should be viewed. However, it is clear that the political administration was at the time trying desperately to gather local support for the V-runway plan.

This “local support” is essential and cannot be lacking.

With the change in government in May, 2010, the situation in Okinawa changed, as well. Now, the Nago city government, the city council meetings, the prefecture, and the prefectural meetings are all opposed to the V-runway plan, and it is clear that there is strong opposition to this plan throughout the prefecture.

The Japanese and U.S. governments are both considering the V-runway plan, which anticipates moving the runway dozens of meters offshore (this, in order to obtain the prefecture’s approval).

However, since the situation has changed between the previous government and today’s government, it now seems likely that neither the prefecture nor its councils — especially not Nago City — will be satisfied with mere offshore relocation.

The U.S. Pacific Command has stated that the estimate of the cost of moving the base to Guam, as had been previously agreed to by the US and Japanese governments, isn’t high enough, and has hinted that there might be an upward revision in this cost estimate.

But the Obama administration has just recently hammered out a large-scale budget cut for U.S. national defense; and Prime Minister Kan has been working tirelessly to raise funds and resources to rebuild and restore the Tohoku region hit by the large earthquake and tsunami. It is now utterly unimaginable that the cost of relocation could be increased.

“The clear opinion from local Okinawans” and “the large cost of relocation of the airbase to Guam” seem to be the two issues that will determine the fate of the Futenma problem.