The things that the President of the United States will say tomorrow in his address will not be exactly what he truly wants to say. Obama will choose his words carefully. He will try to commit as little as possible and most importantly — will be careful not to irritate Republicans.
Tomorrow the President of the United States, Barack Obama, will deliver his speech, which is said to be mainly focused on the happenings in the Middle East. The latest developments known as “the Spring of the Arab Nations,” and the growing tension leading towards September and its repercussions on the peace process between the Palestinian Authority and Israel, led the president’s advisors to continue revising his speech on the Middle East.
This address, like other statements and every small and large step taken by Obama, needs to be taken into account while examining the broader context in which Obama, the politician, is trying to get reelected in the 2012 elections. This is ostensibly the main reason that the president will not be delivering the speech that he would have liked to on Thursday, but a more reserved speech with fewer obligations attached.
One part of the speech would have been an address directed at the citizens of the Middle East, promising America’s firm unreserved support in attaining democratic rights and the legitimacy of those young Arabs who took to the streets of Tunisia and Egypt and continue to demonstrate in Yemen, Libya, Syria and wherever a dictator rules, demanding freedom and equal rights.
In practical terms, political Obama can’t express sweeping support because it conflicts with many U.S. interests in the region and will cause him to look conciliatory and coy, which will then immediately be translated by Republican rivals as an attempt to accumulate political capital.
An American leader as in the case of Israel, and unlike a number of European countries, cannot afford to be soft and too weak. How much more does this ring true for a Democratic president who never served in the army and is regularly suspected of being a Muslim in disguise?
A Ladder to Go Down the Tree from Recognizing a Palestinian State
The other central part of the speech is the focus on outlining a plan for a final settlement date (even if clearly not sustainable at the moment) between Israel and the Palestinians.
Such a plan would follow in the footsteps of President Clinton’s parameters from the year 2000, and would grant the Palestinians a ladder to go down from a known tree known as the Palestinian state in the month of September, in exchange for Israeli gestures of peace, like additional temporary settlement freezes that will allow both sides to meet and consider more confidence-building measures and buy precious time.
In his speech, the President could demand that the Palestinian government, and all its factions, accept the plan as it is, at least temporarily, to extract both Israel and America from the nearing international mess and to bestow upon the Palestinians this important political horizon.
Netanyahu Has His Head against the Wall
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has absorbed a lot of criticism recently for not taking the initiative and strategically trying to steer Israel clear of the diplomatic disaster to which it is led.
By all indications, the future of Israel is to sink into this mess, so this criticism is correct. However, the Americans are being led down the same path, because when the moment of truth comes they won’t have a choice and will find themselves alone with Israel, against the whole world that will be seeking a new state in Palestine.
We can assume that Obama understands the situation, as he stood in a similar situation a few months ago at the U.N. Security Council. When elections stand in the doorway and the prime minister of Israel insists on entering with his head against the wall, the president believes that it rests on him to rally the American Jewish voice and funds and is not expected to risk a high-profile fight with the Israeli prime minister.
Therefore, Obama may just mention the importance in finding a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian issue and will not devote more than a paragraph to this speech and it will not be more than paying lip service.
On the other hand, if the president chooses a brave speech, his words can be the basis for solving the problem in September for the worse.
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